Laxtonto

Stream east... They have 6 servers from around the world going so if it hits a buffer, just swap servers...

I would be very surprised if Hamas goes to Turkey. I would also be surprised if they go to Port Sudan. The problem is that no one wants them and Qatar is now desperately wants to be rid of them. As some added spice, OPEC+ overestimated Chinese demand and so it it unlikely they will be able to ramp up production to their targets anytime soon. They are also concerned that US tariffs and potential US overproduction could further weaken demand. Combine that with the potential end of the Ukraine war and lessening of Russian oil export restrictions and OPEC+ is concerned about future revenue estimates… All of this makes the hot potato game with who gets stuck with the Hamas leadership that much more high stakes. Maybe Turkey takes them, but there is little benefit to having them in your country at this point. Is it really worth the headache now since they are already walking the tightrope between NATO, the US, and Russia with Ukraine? Russia supports a Palestinian state but is staunchly opposed to any form of Islamic terrorism, and are in between on how to treat Hamas as a whole. I am not sure how Hamas being in Turkey works with that whole equation. As much of Erdogan likes to try to ride the line leveraging the tensions between the US and Turkey, and even the Arab nations to a point, this would probably put way too much of a target on Turkey if Iran, via Hamas, does something stupid. Worse, by giving Hamas a home, they are in essence siding with Iran, which has an extremely complicated relationship with Turkey and regardless how it would be framed cause a portion of Turkey be distrustful/upset of the situation. Could it happen? Sure. I would bet against it at this point though. What is strange is there is no real options for Hamas at all. It is really easy to come up with reasons not to house them anywhere outside of Iran, and I am real short on reasons to take them anywhere else on the Arabian peninsula.

I dont either because it is a death sentence to go there. The real question is that how few viable options are there on the table if Port Sudan is considered a potential compromise? The Hamas leadership isn't worth the headache to protect at this point. Between the destruction of the Hezbollah leadership and changing political climate in the US, there is just no point to keep providing them cover.

And maybe that is the real threat to Putin. If the restriction from the Biden Admin was no major attacks on major Russian population centers, and they have followed along with that mostly, then that is a major pivot point in all of this. With how limited the Russian Air Defense is, a massive set of home grown Ukrainian ballistic missiles all going to Moscow would make things real interesting in the land of public perception for Putin. Without knowing what those red lines are there is no way to know. That being said, that information asymmetry is a killer bargaining chip, if you can actually convince Russia that the Ukraine has had the means, but it was Biden keeping it from happening. Maybe we will see a few home grown missile launches as a proof of concept towards the Kerch bridge as the days slowly tick off to Jan.

I dont think that this is a huge initial threat to Russia that would lead to an instant set of terms. If I was Russia I would be playing the the idea of lets see how bad it could be if Ukraine really goes full weapons hot. The problem right now is there is no telling what that would really mean. Does the Ukraine have enough stockpiles to go full bore on the eastern front while also putting extreme pressure on Crimea. Way too much unknown to start trying to think of scenarios yet. The big question would be what has the Biden administration been keeping them from doing? If they scuttled a proposed amphibious landing, that would be a major game changer (either successful or a failure). I would really have to think about what can the Ukraine do now, 18 moths too late from when they really need to. That is what is going to matter in the negotiations.

Major grain of salt here, but Cleveland is pretty solid with reading the tea leaves.. So the bargaining chip would be in essence telling Russia that the US is letting Ukraine fight the war with no restrictions or negotiate in good faith...

The problem is that if there is a war between Iran and Israel by themselves, Iran is fucked and it’s over in a week or two. During that period Israel would decimate all Iranian oil production and OPEC could step in and up their oil production and fill the gap of the black market Iranian oil. China would not be pleased, but if Iran starts a ground war, I don’t expect too many countries will blame Israel for finally ending the issue. Iran knows this and will continue with a measured response. The is is the same reason why they financed Hamas and Hezbollah in the first place. One on one is a losing proposition and a war of attrition is their best option. The concern isn’t an Iran/Israel war, but a full on Arab conflict vs Israel. If that happens, the first thing Israel does is destroy all refining and pumping infrastructure and in essence go for the purse strings. The current ground and air forces of all the plausible Arab combatants would be hard pressed to even force Israel to cede ground, much less be able to defeat their entire military. Geography makes the defensive war easier, and the overwhelming air advantage makes this a Turkey shot. I really don’t see either scenario is a logical outcome, but people are never fully rational so…

If you move Hamas HQ to West Africa, that is a death sentence. Full stop. Putting them in Port Sudan places them out of the sphere of influence of the Hanafi Sunnis and into the hands of the Maliki Sunnis. Not a direct rivalry, but also they will be less likely to put up a fuss is something happens on their turf. It also puts them in range of Israeli operations and air attacks would be primarily outbound over the Red Sea. You would in essence be asking Saudi Arabia to look the other way and not notice or claim they didn't pick up any aircraft heading to Port Sudan. Compare that to any flight plan to get to Qatar, and it is pretty obvious they are getting hung out to dry. Placing the Hamas HQ in a city of 400k, on the Red Sea coast, in easy range of Israel, in a country with a less sophisticated military vs. Doha at 3M people, with a very high standard of living, with an extremely sophisticated military deterrence, and multiple hostile countries in between Qatar and Israel is a night and day difference. This is Qatar and the most of the rest of the Middle East trying to wash their hands of Hamas by letting Israel now solve the problem for them. It puts Hamas much closer to what would be considered a US sphere of influence and closer to where the US and Israel have had traditional intelligence assets and that much farther away from Iran.

Typical night out at the bar in Fayetteville..

Super cheap because it is completely black market to avoid sanctions. Much like the Russian the Iranian crude is being sold mainly to China (like 80+%) and then India. The Iranian and Russian ghost tanker fleets are an entire wild story in itself. If I remember correctly Iranian oil is high in sulfur content and medium to heavy crude. This also somewhat highlights why it is was such a big deal that the current administration did all they could to curtail the Israeli retaliation strikes from targeting Kharg Island. Kharg Island Oil Terminal accounts for 80-90% of their oil distribution capability. By limiting the Israel response, China gets their cheap oil and as a trade stays neutral on supplying Russia with equipment in their fight with Ukraine.

The loss of Cooks is further mitigated with the fact that modern CFB allows for the true freaks at the WR postions to step in and play their first season on campus. So the real question is how close to Wingo is either Lockett or French in comparison to Cook to a a transfer...

The problem with leaving Twitter is the election just showed that twitter, if you can sift through the shit, is always hours and hours ahead of the news. Especially when it is local. The problem with the current view of modern media is that their own information silos hurt them in providing real timely news.. In many ways TMZ in the 2000s was the harbinger of what Twitter is now.. There is a ton of weird shit, but they are all over breaking news that others are afraid/unwilling to report.

I think people are discounting how much the world fears Trump's unpredictable nature. Qatar knows it is easier to kick Hamas out now when Hamas has been severely weakened than to deal with the uncertainty of Trump in Jan. What is Hamas/Iran going to do about it now? It also doesn't hurt that Trump is heavily anchored to the idea of cranking up oil and natural gas production and it is prudent to do whatever they can to not antagonize his production response. Right now, the US is most likely poised to go after Iran and Iranian oil exports. Even if the US becomes a major net energy exporter again, Qatar/OPEC can still absorb some of the void in global oil exports when the cheap Iranian oil gets stopped.

I had this same discussion with several close friends of mine, and I always go back to equating this to the failure of Vietnam. Fighting a war with red lines and weapon restrictions will always lead to defeat. The Ukraine was always going to be the smaller force. That was understood from the beginning. The logic that US tech will defeat Russian tech was on full display. The problem is that we provided the technology but never let Ukraine follow through with the overall doctrine that the US would have employed in this scenario. Manpower will always trump technology if you stretch the timeline by not allowing that technology to overwhelm the opposition. The US and the Biden administration ultimately failed Ukraine. Yes, we provided unparalleled aid, but we then dictated how that technology could be used. We supported the target acquisition aspects of Ukraine while also leaking aspects of the Ukrainian counter offensive plans in an attempt to manipulate their strategy. We drew lines on maps and tried to dictate plans of attack, while having a poor grasp of the capabilities of the troops in the field and the restrictions they were under. We never let Ukraine do what we would have done from a tactical standpoint. The targeting and usage restrictions made the technology advantage a hollow shell in comparison of what it could and should have been. The path for victory was for the Ukraine to decimate the Russian forces in Crimea and the Donbas while holding elsewhere. Use the overwhelming technology advantage and lay waste to every mode of transportation into the combat theater and starve the Russian out figuratively and literally. Force everyone within 200 km of the theater to in essence have to walk or drive to the front. Make anywhere within 200 km of the front be a deadzone with no power, no food, no functional infrastructure. Decimate the Russian will to fight and the troops ability to move. Slow the flow of troops and supplies so the smaller Ukrainian force and easily repel the invaders. Instead, we got restrictions and staging areas 50 km from the front. This limits the ability to be reactionary and eventually the manpower disadvantage will lead to being overwhelmed. If what we saw was the approach the outgoing administration considered appropriate and measured, then there was no hope for Ukraine to win with these restrictions. The counterattacks into Russian territory were too late to alter the war. The failure to allow the use of deep strike capabilities to cripple rail transportation of troops too the front allowed Russia to slowly overwhelm the eastern front through meat grinder zerg assaults. The decision to not allow attacks on NIP-16 satellite comm site until June this year was years too late. The US never let Ukraine force the Russia populace to live in fear of the war. We never let Ukraine approach this conflict the same way we would have, and in doing so Ukraine was tasked with the near impossible task of bleeding out Russia and trading soil for Russian blood and equipment. In many ways, the hope for a settlement driven by Trump is now the only recourse. The only silver lining is that his hate and disdain for Iran and their continued involvement in supplying Russia with drones and ICBMs combined with his desire to limit China on the world stage will force a geopolitical squeeze on Russia. The only problem is that the Ukraine is now bargaining from a position of at best stalemate if not apparent weakness. I cannot come up with a scenario that Ukraine does not lose something in the negotiated outcome. Be it territory, be it historical claim to Crimea, be it the ability to join NATO, the war is now going to end at a huge political cost to Ukraine on top of the unimaginable destruction and loss of life. The unwillingness to commit to total war has led to loss of an entire generation of men and women, which I fear Ukraine may never recover from. Make no mistake, this is all at the feet of the current administration and we need to take a hard look at why this turned out the way it did.

RUN IT UP!