Jump to content

Post Oak

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    10831
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Post Oak

  1. 48 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

    A friend of mine who is a criminal defense litigator posted this on facebook. Spoiler tagging because it is quite long but worth a read in my opinion. Would be curious to see what @Brisketexan and other resident legal experts think about his assessment of the situation.

      Hide contents

    Today was an eventful day if your named rhymed of Ronald Grump (id est, "Individual-1"). But before we get to that, a little background about your federal criminal justice system.

    The federal criminal justice system is very unlike the ones you are familiar with (state justice systems). This is because the federal government of necessity has a much smaller jurisdiction -- only things that happen on federal lands/property and certain crimes which have federal jurisdictional "hooks" fall within the purview of the federal government to criminalize. Understandably, these tend to be the larger, more complex, and more serious crimes.

    In response to this, the federal system is structured quite differently than individual state systems. While we may recognize that a state court in Vermont and a state court in Texas will likely have a different tenor and cast to the views of judge and jury, the federal system isn't supposed to have any of that. It is supposed to exist free of local prejudice. In order to effectuate this, Congress and the Art. III courts tightly control the entire process from start to finish. One of the more perplexing aspects for non-lawyers is the federal sentencing system. While a majority of states have a determinate sentencing scheme (whereby enumerated factors are considered by a learned professional, a judge, in setting sentence), there is still an inherent degree of flexibility in judicial decision-making regarding sentence that allows for expressions of mercy or imprecation as the facts of the case may warrant (Texas, on the other hand, permits juries of 6 or 12 people to determine sentence with regard to NO enumerated factors).

    Up until the latter half of the last decade, these determinate sentencing calculations were not advisory; they were mandatory. Paradoxically, the Sentencing Guidelines actually made sentences uniformly harsher because most judges tend to be merciful when they vary from determinate sentencing guidelines. Through a series of legislative and judicial reforms, however, the Sentencing Guidelines were determined to be only advisory in nature, but even still, a within-Guidelines sentence is presumptively reasonable, so most judges, in practice, still follow the Guidelines recommendations.

    One of the clearest aims of defense counsel in the federal system is not to seek and achieve acquittal for their clients, but to reduce the Guidelines calculation as much as possible. This is because the federal prosecutors get to be very, very, very, very selective in the cases they take. Your local municipal prosecutor HAS to take every ticket that a cop writes. Your local DA has to try the cases that a grand jury says he does. A federal AUSA may have a yearly caseload in the hundreds, rather than the thousand or tens of thousands. As a result, federal prosecutors tend to take, try, and succeed on, the cases that they are most sure of winning.

    Added to this, the various federal law enforcement agencies, chief among them the FBI, also represent the cream of the law enforcement crop. Whereas Uncle-cousin Billy can be hired by local elected sheriff Jethro Honkytonk, or a dewy-eyed high school graduate can complete six months at a local academy and be licensed to carry a gun and shoot people, the FBI almost universally requires a bachelor's degree, if not a masters, PhD, or law degree. This dramatically increases the thoroughness, effectiveness, and adequacy of law enforcement investigations.

    I state all of this to tell you that when I receive a federal case, it is rare, exceedingly rare, that I have the ability to reach into my bag of defense attorney tricks (motions to suppress, attacks on the constitutionality of statutes, affirmative defenses, etc.) to try to spring my client. Instead, at best, I run interference until I figure out how to mitigate the harshness of the coming punishment.

    Add to this the fact that most federal cases are complex, in that they involve multiple defendants doing separate bad acts as part of a common scheme or plan. The smartest way to try such a case is to find the low man on the totem pole, the weakest link, and offer him the chance to assist the government. If he does, the government is empowered to make several types of favorable sentencing recommendations under USSG 5K1.1 (the 5K motion) or 18 U.S.C. § 3553 (the sentencing statute). These motions, which can only be made at final sentencing, permit judges to IGNORE mandatory minimum sentences, or statutorily-required minimums on a custodial sentence. A mandatory minimum five-year sentence can be reduced to under two years with a favorable 5K motion, which is why major drug rings are almost always brought down as low-level dealers and flunkies turn on higher-ups. This is not a bug, but rather a feature, of the system.

    It should surprise you not in the least, then, that so much of federal criminal litigation is built around knowing how manage cooperating defendants and achieve favorable outcomes for them. To wit, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort.

    These two are the Goofus and Gallant of federal criminal procedure. For our purposes, Manafort is Goofus and Cohen is Gallant.

    Goofus dug in his heels, said "the FBI will never get the goods on me!" and went to trial. Goofus got his ass KICKED at trial, and would have been convicted on all counts save for one Trumpalo holdout. Goofus got a lot smarter after losing his initial trial, and began to cooperate, agreeing to plead guilty in exchange for favorable sentencing recommendations after a debrief. Manafort met with government agents TWELVE (12) times, three times before making his agreement and nine times after. This is extraordinary; the most I've ever had a client debrief is three, all pre-plea. Post-plea cooperation means that investigators really thought Goofus had something good to say.

    Problem is, Goofus fucking lied. Not only did he lie, he lied in ways the prosecutors knew he was lying about. When one debriefs with federal government agents, they ask questions they know the answer to to check to make sure one is being honest. Goofus fucked this up; Goofus's lawyers obviously didn't know Goofus was fucking up, or else they'd have said, "I need to speak to my client in confidence real quick," so that they could say, "QUIT LYING YOU ASSHOLE THEY KNOW THEY KNOW THEY KNOW."

    On November 8, 2018, Goofus's lawyers got a bad, bad phone call from the prosecutors. "We know your client lied to us," is bad. It's bad because not only does it mean that cooperation agreement they spent so long obtaining is out the window, but also that Goofus can be prosecuted for a new count of obstruction.

    Today, Mueller's team filed their memorandum in support of their argument that Manafort not only lied to them, but breached his plea agreement. Breaching a plea agreement is serious shit for a defendant, because IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE PLEA AGREEMENT IS OFF. It just means the government doesn't have to live up to its part of the bargain. The defendant is still on the hook for EVERYTHING. It's a one-way no-backsies clause.

    While most of the memo is heavily redacted (all of the good juicy parts are blacked out), it does let us know a few key things: (1) Manafort was in contact with operatives of the Russian government/intelligence community; (2) Manafort lied about it; (3) Manafort worked with Russians to obstruct justice by tampering with witnesses against him; and (4) Manafort lied about another investigation in another district. We don't know what other investigation this is (it's blacked out), but it COULD be Cohen's, or it could be something else entirely.

    Most importantly, however, we know that Manafort was in contact with the Trump administration AFTER his indictment and plea agreement, which he said he would not do.

    What this means is that the government will not be offering Manafort any breaks at sentencing. He will die in prison.

    And then there's Gallant.

    Gallant did what a smart federal criminal does -- offers to cooperate, goes in, and does so. He stayed out of the spotlight, didn't fuck around with investigators, and now is up for sentencing. Before sentencing, the government and the defendant (if they're well-represented) both file sentencing memorandums, or medium-length documents indicating how the sentencing court should calculate the Guidelines range and where the sentence should fall. The sentencing memo filed by Mueller's team is fairly basic, but it contains some absolute WHOPPER revelations. Seriously, Burger King should sue for trademark infringement.

    It establishes that Cohen lied to congressional investigators and law enforcement about his role within Trump's organization and about his contacts with Russians. It further states that Cohen admitted to all of this and accepted his responsibility, which is key. Like I said, Cohen is Gallant. He did the right thing; Manafort is a dipshit. "Accepting responsibility" in federal criminal parlance means "cooperated and told us the truth." In a footnote on page 4, the government notes that Cohen went in and told investigators the truth while CORRECTING statements he'd made earlier. That's not only, "I lied," but "I lied, and here's the truth."

    Mueller says Cohen helped in four main ways: (1) providing information about contacts with Russian interests during the campaign and "discussions with others" in the course of making contact and providing information on attempts by Russians to contact the Trump campaign, including attempts to set up a meeting between Putin and Trump; (2) providing information on Russian interference in the 2016 election "obtained by virtue of his regular contact with [Trump organization] executives during the campaign; (3) providing information on contacts with people in the White House durings 2017-2018; and (4) providing information on the coordination between Cohen and people testifying before Congress.

    Let's unpack. (1) is obvious; Cohen, as Trump's fixer, was a key go-between in the quid pro quo of why Russia wanted Trump in the White House. (2) is less obvious, but still key -- Cohen, as a close confidant of Trump, had personal knowledge of how Russia was to help the Trump campaign. (3) is a bit shocking, because it shows that the Mueller investigation has gone beyond what happened in 2016 and has been actively investigating recent and current happenings (every indictment so far has been for older stuff). (4) is downright shit-your-pants-with-watery-dooks frightening for Trump and Co. This is as close as the memo comes to saying, "Trump used Cohen to coach people testifying before congressional committees" as a sentencing memo can get. This is, in so few words, a big, flashing, "YOU OBSTRUCTED JUSTICE AND WE FUCKING KNOW IT" sign to Donald Trump.

    But most interesting (to me, at least) was the statement by prosecutors that Cohen admitted, with respect to the payments to Stormy Daniels and Karen MacDougal, that "he acted in coordination with and at the direction of Individual-1." Individual-1 is, unquestionably, Donald Trump. How do we know that? In other filings, it was stated that Individual-1 ran a successful campaign for the Presidency of the United States.

    Why is this so significant? Because (1) Trump has lied and said he did not know about the payments and (2) the payments themselves constitute a felony campaign finance violation a piece. This means that Trump has committed a provable felony, and that he has attempted to obstruct justice to cover it up. Most legal experts believe that this is grounds for impeachment, and if Congress does not act immediately on it, you could see some real unrest from people pissed off that Republicans are so complicit in allowing Trump to act with impunity.

    Elsewhere in the realm of politics, the Grand Ol' Nazi Party is having a really bad day, because their like Sturmtruppen James Fields, the incel dork who ran over Heather Heyer in his car when he went to play brownshirt with the rest of his weak-chinned fascist buddies, found himself facing the wrong end of a murder conviction. Undoubtedly, this is going to go less well for him because Chubbergruppenfurher Fields told his mommy on the phone that it was OK he murdered a woman because she was an "anti-white communist." So that's premeditation and a lack of remorse, good luck getting out of prison. I'm sure the Aryan Brotherhood will welcome your doughy, pasty self into their ranks in prison, Nazichen.

    Of course, Donnie "Two Scoops" Dipshit had to comment on all of this, frothing at the thumbs for over an hour this morning during "executive time." Then, when the documents were released, he tried to claim victory, shouting that he was "TOTALLY CLEARED," except that, no, anyone with a minimum of literacy can read that "Individual-1" was directly implicated in several serious felony charges.

    This lends credence to Rex Tillerson's suggestion that Trump is an illiterate babyman whose cognitive capacities have been ruined by a lifetime of idiocy and stimulant abuse, but it also presented a petty little slapfight when Trump talked about what a shitty Secretary of State "Wayne Tracker" was. Which, I guess, just makes him another in a long line of embarassments, frauds, criminals, hucksters, and idiots with which Donald Trump has surrounded himself, like Manafort, Cohen, Roger Stone, Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Nikki Haley, Rex Tillerson, Sean Spicer, Reince Priebus, Steve Bannon, Anthony Scaramucci, Jeff Sessions, etc. and so on.

    Finally, to cap off all of this, it was revealed that John Kelly, Trump's chief of staff, and Don McGahn, Trump's lawyer, have both spoken with Mueller. Given what was in those sentencing memos, that can't be good for Trump, at all. And predictably, Trump and Kelly now face a widening rift that is expected to result in Kelly's firing or resignation, whoever blinks first.

    If, like me, you've been watching the Mueller investigation, this was "go time." This was one of the breaking points you've been waiting for.

    And if you're still a Republican after all this, if you still remain loyal to that crapsack party of feckless fascists, then you need to do the right thing and rein your party in, reach across that aisle, and cut the cancerous growth out of your own heart. Because the longer you wait, the more complicit you look. And when the reckoning comes, and it is coming, if you are on the wrong side of the line, you may get flushed out to sea with the rest of the fascist garbage.

     

    "Illiterate babyman" is shakespearean

    • Like 2
  2. 54 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

    I'm a Texas Farm Bureau guy myself and haven't had to deal with much aggy. They rarely ever deny a claim in my experience.

    TXFB is the best in Texas depending on what office is handling your claim.

    Now back to recruiting.

  3. 56 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

    He is the quintessential aggy.  Insurance salesman, covering the areas of Conroe, spring, cypress, and Katy.  

    State Farm, no less.  Sorry for you if that's your carrier, but having had to deal with many of them, they are one of the worst.

    I dealt with State farm for years because of work. They are terrible. Their claims offices are staffed largely with the most underprepared, unknowledgeable and uncaring people I have ever had the pleasure of knowing.  

  4. Doris Miller was a hero.  It's a shame that he didn't get the credit he deserved because he was African American.  

    They are currently raisng funds to complete a memorial to this man.  Long overdue.  

    If your interested in checking it out or donating heres a link.

    https://dorismillermemorial.org

    Heres a good podcast that gives a pretty unbiased view of the man.  

    https://www.wacohistorypodcast.com/doris-miller/

     

    I drove by the memorial yesterday and it's starting to come together.  It will be a fitting tribute to his service

    5c0b111044ec2.image.jpg?resize=1200,911

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...