sushihorn

Kamala’s campaign specifically didn’t speak to men. When presented with an opportunity to make a case why men should vote for her, she talked about women’s issues and told men they should be supportive of women. Who is attracted to being told your job is to be a bit player in someone else’s story? Humans each have their own story and they all want to be the protagonist of that story Ego is pretty universal

Usually you have to pay extra for that.

Not enough left to move the Great Lakes states. #2 cities are almost fully reported: Dane Co (Madison) and Allegheny Co (Pittsburgh). Philly is 80% reported and Milwaukee is 60% in. Wayne Co (Detroit) still has a lot left but Harris is down almost 6% in MI.

Black voters underperformed in EV and didn’t show up in required numbers today. Also, look at Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. It looks like college whites shifted to the right this cycle. You can see a similar pattern in Hillsborough and Duval Co, FL.

For Congess, there are 2 swing districts in VA: VA-3 is in the Tidewater area and VA-7 is exurban NoVA. VA-7 also features Alexander Vindman on the D side, so it’s an especially good proxy for sentiment towards Trump.

It’s mostly looking like a base election. A lot of good suggestions above. What I will look at first is the states that finish counting and report early. We can probably infer a lot from turnout and margin in Miami-Dade (Hispanic) and Broward (black) counties in FL. Is Harris holding those base voters? Miami has to be compared to 2020, not other Hispanic areas due to the high percentage of Cubans. Trump needs the same from rural white and exurban voters. He also needs to get a favorable split from traditionally R suburbs that move away from him last time. My first look for the last group will be Hamilton Co, IN. It went from Trump+19 in 2016 to +7 in 2020. Appalachia stretches from W PA to N GA and includes W NC. KY almost always is early to report and you can look at eastern counties there to see how Trump’s support is in the region. Laurel and Pulaski Counties voted overwhelmingly for him both times and have substantial numbers of voters: 25-30k each. For exurbs, I’m back to FL; it’s the most sprawling of the early reporting states. I’m looking at Collier (Naples) in the SW and Clay (outside of Jacksonville) for my initial read.

Ralston posted his prediction for Nevada this morning. Presidential quoted here but there are also down ballot races in the link. Ralston in NV

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year? I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post. https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

Georgia EV is essentially done. Some mail in ballots will still trickle in but there aren’t enough left outstanding to change much: <70k. Total early raw votes cast is huge: 4.02 million. It’s likely that 75-80%of total votes in this election are already on the books. The most glaring disparity to me is racial difference in turnout. White turnout in EV stands at 63.0% vs 49.7% black turnout per the GA SOS data hub. I haven’t seen a gap like that before. Pre-Obama the national turnout gap was usually 7-10%. The SOS website allows you to play with county level data so I checked the trend within the core counties of Metro Atlanta. Cobb: 67.6% of white registered voters turned out to EV. 58.1% of black RVs did the same. deKalb: 72.1 white, 53.9 black Fulton: 72.7 white, 49.3 black As a check I also got data for a heavily white and GOP Cherokee County: 65.9 white, 56.1 black, 55.7 other or unknown. Bottom line is that Metro Atlanta isn’t generating the number or kind of votes needed for a D victory. The white and rural vote turned out. Senior citizens turned out. The Election Day vote will have to be either huge, really skewed to D friendly demos or some combination to pull this one out. Like NV, the number of votes already cast in GA make it difficult for what’s left on Election Day to alter the trend.

We can pretty much rule out Ken Paxton winning by double digits this year.

I don’t see a better baseline, unfortunately. Midterms are different and very few states had large EV in 2016 or earlier. That’s why I’m starting to compare to 2020 final vote instead of EV.

I’m sure it’s that at the minimum. Google profiles are incredibly detailed and they are hardly the only one out there. I’d bet the database at Target Smart starts with an anonymized version sliced by precinct to match with SoS data released.

Target Smart actually has marital status as a demographic slice. It’s binary though, married v non-married. It’s not very detailed but it provides another directional indicator.

Hollywood says “hold my Chardonnay.”

I’ve been looking for this data and finally found it. Women are not a monolithic group and they are a large group so it makes sense to drill down. Pew Research looked at political preferences among women by relationship status and there are huge group differences. Married, widowed and divorced women are narrowly divided by party preference: married R+5, widowed D+1, divorced D+7. Cohabitators are D+31 and never married are D+48. Lesbian and Bi are D+71. It’s pretty clear where the gender gap comes from and why it looks like the Grand Canyon in socially liberal cities. I think cultural attitudes towards marriage are a major reason for the rural-urban contrast.