sushihorn

The Sooner program was built for a different era: one where they paid star players under the table and their biggest rival enforced the rules. With a core of OOS mercenaries, they could build the rest of their squad by selling “tradition” and a winning program. Cheating—>Success—>”Tradition” over time. That formula was also used by Nebraska and the combination of $$$ + victories allowed both programs to overcome the liability of being based in Norman and Lincoln respectively for many years. NIL utterly changed the equation. OU could not compete on compensation anymore. Money went from being an illicit advantage to an above board disadvantage for them. Then the issues of location and campus life could blossom as aggravating factors. That left winning program as the sole remaining pillar of the old formula. That was bound to wane over time as the money shift drew talent away. But Sark sped up the erosion by adding program success to money in Austin. The switch from an offense focused Lincoln Riley to defense first Venables was hugely disruptive. We’ve all seen how recruiting was skewed to the offensive side previously and how that tended to rob the defense of talent. BV had the wrong personnel for the team he wanted and an offensive system that didn’t feature the guys that Riley brought in. Maybe Venables could have transitioned the team over time but the success in Austin and his own record may not accord him that time. From a Longhorn perspective, it’s a mismatch made in Heaven.

It would be awesome if aggy just got trolled by Kenny Chesney’s understudy.

Some things are gay. This is Parade Gay.

They need an academy of their own. Space Cadets…lol.

Those defenses are not worse than Clemson and their defense is the most relevant metric when projecting Longhorn scoring. They are between Florida and aggy in YPP. Clemson’s D is average or slightly below in the universe of all big college teams. It’s way below many middle of the pack SEC defenses when you see who they have compiled that record against. Sadly for Clemson, they are #87 against the run at 4.56 YPC. Is the Texas running game better than the mean in CFB? Even 4.5 YPC is going to make things easier on Ewers. I suspect it will be better than an average that includes The Citadel, Appalachian State, Stanford and NC State. They have a good running QB, which gives them a puncher’s chance but that runs right into the strength of this Texas team. Combine that with an OL that hasn’t performed well and Klubnick may be forced to play hero ball early and often.

Clemson did the same thing in a much weaker conference with SUB-.500 teams. And they had 3 regular season losses against that weaker schedule vs 1 loss for Texas. Texas has weaknesses. Clemson is a severely flawed team whose offense was good enough to cover those flaws most of the time against bad competition.

Kirby used a lot of 5 man fronts with cover 2 shell. That’s great for creating simulated pressure and TFLs. It doesn’t leave much at the 2nd level if the back finds a crease. I also saw stunts where the DL were looping 3-4 gaps. You don’t do that if you have to respect the run.

Georgia was far better in Austin than they have been in any other game this season. Their defense was greatly helped by Ewers getting no help on the ground attack. Wisner had not developed enough to establish the identity of the run game. The lack of RB production let them sit back in a cover 2 shell, helping to disguise coverage and reducing assignment conflict for the LBs Texas is running the ball much better than earlier in the season. Some of the stunts UGa used pass rushing will get them gashed against what Wisner and the OL have shown us lately. They will have to focus a lot more on gap integrity and run fits. That slows down LB running out to cover the flats, which is something Georgia did effectively in Austin. As others have pointed out, the Horns defense played well last time out. The D has been quite consistent and is capable of strangling Georgia when not presented with short fields repeatedly. The one area where UGa has improved since the last game is that Beck is protecting the ball better. I see that as an offset to the reduced effectiveness of their running game.

Kamala’s campaign specifically didn’t speak to men. When presented with an opportunity to make a case why men should vote for her, she talked about women’s issues and told men they should be supportive of women. Who is attracted to being told your job is to be a bit player in someone else’s story? Humans each have their own story and they all want to be the protagonist of that story Ego is pretty universal

Usually you have to pay extra for that.

Not enough left to move the Great Lakes states. #2 cities are almost fully reported: Dane Co (Madison) and Allegheny Co (Pittsburgh). Philly is 80% reported and Milwaukee is 60% in. Wayne Co (Detroit) still has a lot left but Harris is down almost 6% in MI.

Black voters underperformed in EV and didn’t show up in required numbers today. Also, look at Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties. It looks like college whites shifted to the right this cycle. You can see a similar pattern in Hillsborough and Duval Co, FL.

For Congess, there are 2 swing districts in VA: VA-3 is in the Tidewater area and VA-7 is exurban NoVA. VA-7 also features Alexander Vindman on the D side, so it’s an especially good proxy for sentiment towards Trump.

It’s mostly looking like a base election. A lot of good suggestions above. What I will look at first is the states that finish counting and report early. We can probably infer a lot from turnout and margin in Miami-Dade (Hispanic) and Broward (black) counties in FL. Is Harris holding those base voters? Miami has to be compared to 2020, not other Hispanic areas due to the high percentage of Cubans. Trump needs the same from rural white and exurban voters. He also needs to get a favorable split from traditionally R suburbs that move away from him last time. My first look for the last group will be Hamilton Co, IN. It went from Trump+19 in 2016 to +7 in 2020. Appalachia stretches from W PA to N GA and includes W NC. KY almost always is early to report and you can look at eastern counties there to see how Trump’s support is in the region. Laurel and Pulaski Counties voted overwhelmingly for him both times and have substantial numbers of voters: 25-30k each. For exurbs, I’m back to FL; it’s the most sprawling of the early reporting states. I’m looking at Collier (Naples) in the SW and Clay (outside of Jacksonville) for my initial read.

Ralston posted his prediction for Nevada this morning. Presidential quoted here but there are also down ballot races in the link. Ralston in NV

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year? I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post. https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

Georgia EV is essentially done. Some mail in ballots will still trickle in but there aren’t enough left outstanding to change much: <70k. Total early raw votes cast is huge: 4.02 million. It’s likely that 75-80%of total votes in this election are already on the books. The most glaring disparity to me is racial difference in turnout. White turnout in EV stands at 63.0% vs 49.7% black turnout per the GA SOS data hub. I haven’t seen a gap like that before. Pre-Obama the national turnout gap was usually 7-10%. The SOS website allows you to play with county level data so I checked the trend within the core counties of Metro Atlanta. Cobb: 67.6% of white registered voters turned out to EV. 58.1% of black RVs did the same. deKalb: 72.1 white, 53.9 black Fulton: 72.7 white, 49.3 black As a check I also got data for a heavily white and GOP Cherokee County: 65.9 white, 56.1 black, 55.7 other or unknown. Bottom line is that Metro Atlanta isn’t generating the number or kind of votes needed for a D victory. The white and rural vote turned out. Senior citizens turned out. The Election Day vote will have to be either huge, really skewed to D friendly demos or some combination to pull this one out. Like NV, the number of votes already cast in GA make it difficult for what’s left on Election Day to alter the trend.

We can pretty much rule out Ken Paxton winning by double digits this year.

I don’t see a better baseline, unfortunately. Midterms are different and very few states had large EV in 2016 or earlier. That’s why I’m starting to compare to 2020 final vote instead of EV.

I’m sure it’s that at the minimum. Google profiles are incredibly detailed and they are hardly the only one out there. I’d bet the database at Target Smart starts with an anonymized version sliced by precinct to match with SoS data released.

Target Smart actually has marital status as a demographic slice. It’s binary though, married v non-married. It’s not very detailed but it provides another directional indicator.

Hollywood says “hold my Chardonnay.”

I’ve been looking for this data and finally found it. Women are not a monolithic group and they are a large group so it makes sense to drill down. Pew Research looked at political preferences among women by relationship status and there are huge group differences. Married, widowed and divorced women are narrowly divided by party preference: married R+5, widowed D+1, divorced D+7. Cohabitators are D+31 and never married are D+48. Lesbian and Bi are D+71. It’s pretty clear where the gender gap comes from and why it looks like the Grand Canyon in socially liberal cities. I think cultural attitudes towards marriage are a major reason for the rural-urban contrast.

Early voting was generally a small part of total turnout in 2016. FL was a major exception: half the vote was early. Notice that the error there was 2.6% which is better than most traditional polls did that year. If 50% is reasonably predictive, I’m going to say 70-75% should be also.

With EV being so huge, the ballots cast so far should look a lot like the final electorate. That’s bad news for Harris. Young adults are 10.5% of the 2024 EV vs 16.2% of the 2020 total vote. Black vote share is down a point (28.9 v 29.9). Urban share is 16.7% v 19.0% 4 years ago and rural is taking share from the suburbs as well as the cities. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=final_eday_voted_count_&demo_filters=[{"key"%3A"age"%2C"value"%3A"All"}]&state=GA&view_type=state You can’t replicate the 2020 electorate, much less the Obama Coalition when young voters and urban voters stay home. How do you move the numbers when 70-75% of the votes are already cast? The shortfall of black support is smaller a can be made up by the 25-30% yet to vote but that is not enough by itself. Like NV, the remaining votes have to look radically different for Kamala to win.