sushihorn

Made me think of this:

I spoke of trends. No one but you mentioned absolutes. ALL the data point in one direction. I understand your eagerness to reject it but I do not respect that position. My data tell me that LSU's defense is going to be pretty good. Does my desire for them to suck override what the numbers are telling me? Not if I'm going to be intellectually honest.

We are looking at ALL relevant data rather than homer wish casting. The last really good LSU rushing attack was 3 years ago during the 2016 season. In 2017 they were good for 4.79 YPC or #39 nationally so above average but not great. In 2018 that fell to 4.01 YPC or #91 nationally. That's not good. In 2019 it has fallen again to 3.70 YPC against weak competition. This is nothing new. It's a trend 3 years in the making. It's a multi-year trend. And a fairly obvious one at that.

I was waiting for Texas +7 too but it looks like the NY Post screwed us. It's kind of a big deal since Atlantic City now has bigger sports book action than Vegas. https://nypost.com/2019/09/06/texas-vs-lsu-all-signs-point-to-underdog-longhorns/ I'm in at +6.5 and +220 ML.

Absolutely correct. Burrow was only under pressure to make a play in the passing game 3 times last season: Florida (2 INTSs), Bama (1 INT) and aggy (#108 pass efficiency D).

Damn straight. Anyone who thinks yielding points and yards to great offenses is a sign of bad defense isn't watching the game or is smoking too much ganja while in front of their TV. We have consecutive games by OU and UGa last year that make an easy comparison. Alabama's defense was SLIGHTLY better than Texas vs OU. Tide was 37 yards and 3 points better one game later. Texas' defense was SIGNIFICANTLY better than Bama's vs Georgia. Horns were 165 yards and 7 points better than Bama in the very next game. A lot of unfounded claims are being made that have to ignore a mass of evidence. I can only assume the media brainwashing is on full display here. Based on actual results against common opponents, the Texas defense was fully equivalent to Bama's if not better. It's hard to understand where the silly mythology comes from other than pure propaganda.

aggy doesn't need to be addressing Existentialism. They haven't even resolved the basic duality of Being vs Becoming...

LSU is not OU - in either phase of the offense. The Sooners have a rep as a passing team and they fully deserve it. But they were also one of the best running teams in the country at 6.6 YPC in 2018. LSU had a rep as a running team that was not deserved at an average of 4.0 YPC. This year the divergence is even larger. LSU went 3.7 YPC against GA So. OU faced a better opponent in Houston and ran for 9.6 YPC against them. Fortunately for LSU they don't have OU's defense either. They showed me no ability to run the ball or to stop penetration on pass plays even against GA So. They offset the protection issues largely by first read quick throws off a 3 step drop or shotgun equivalent. There was no way to hide the penetration problem on running plays. If they cannot run the ball consistently against Texas and cannot protect Burrow for downfield throws they are left with a short passing game only. They will need Burrow to be more accurate than he was in Game 1 or a repeat of the +4 TO margin and special teams play they got against UGa last year to walk out with the win if that happens.

I'm glad you enjoyed the numbers; I've been a quant guy my whole life. I went back and looked at the numbers in detail once the pattern became apparent. In competitive games last year, the LSU defense typically saw a significant downtick in performance around the 45-50 snaps defended mark. The 70 snaps I cited earlier simply gave enough time after that point to have a large impact on the final results. But it was actually part of a larger pattern on further examination. Detailed results are posted in the LSU Defense discussion thread:

Not only that but he's using a deceptive stat without providing context. ESPN's Adjusted QBR for Kyler Murray last season was 95.4 - so falling short of 100 isn't any sort of indictment. Burrow is not a great QB but that stat only tells us he's not VY.

They should schedule their coming out party jointly with chin pubes.

I went back and looked at the numbers in detail once the pattern became apparent. In competitive games last year, the LSU defense typically saw a significant down tick in performance around the 45-50 snaps defended mark. The 70 snaps I cited earlier simply gave enough time after that inflection point to have a large impact on the final results. But it was actually part of a larger pattern on further examination. Miami: In their first 50 offensive plays, the Canes had 212 yards (4.2 yards per play) and 3 points. In their last 19, they got 130 yards (6.9 YPP) and 2 TDs. Florida: First 52 snaps went for 270 yds (5.2 YPP) and 14 points. Last 18 snaps – 105 yds (5.8 YPP) and 14 points. You can see the run defense falter late. 2nd half rush sequence: 3, 1, 2, 6, 2, 0, 10, 6, 9, (-1), 17, 12, 2(TD). After that UF is trying to kill the clock with a lead: 4, 5, 5, 1, 8, 3, (-1). LSU definitely struggled stopping the run when they needed to late and the 2 first downs on Florida's final drive were killers. Georgia: First 47 plays = 156 yds (3.2 YPP) and 3 points . Their last 18 snaps yielded 166 yds (9.2 YPP) and 2 TDs. Good win for LSU but probably the biggest example of hitting the wall at 50 snaps. Bama: The first 47 plays gained 323 yards (6.9 YPP) and 16 points. Their last 31 plays generated 253 yards (8.2 YPP) and 2 TDs. MSU: First 50 snaps good for 190 yds (3.8 YPP) and 3 points. Last 11 yielded 70 yds (6.4 YPP) and no points. Arkansas: Shouldn’t have been competitive but it was. Arky’s first 50 plays gained 145 yds (2.9 YPP) and 3 points. The last 8 plays resulted in 71 yards (8.9 YPP) and 2 TDs (doesn’t this number sound familiar?) aggy: First 52 = 266 yds (5.1 YPP) and 24 points. Last 55 plays = 270 yds (4.9 YPP), 6 TDs and 2 FG. FGs are almost automatic in OT but LSU still had 7 blown chances to make a game winning stop on TD drives late. That’s a huge contrast to forcing 3 and out 5 times earlier. UCF: First 48 = 192 yds (4.0 YPP). Last 13 plays = 58 yds (4.5 YPP), 1 TD. The variance was small in this game. UCF should have been dead in the water with a non-passing QB once they got down late. The fatigue shows up more clearly in the 2nd half run sequence: 7, 1, 3, 2, (-5), 5, 2, 8, 12, 11, 22, 2(TD). Bold denotes play count 50+ There is a pretty clear trend showing LSU’s defensive performance dropping off late in games – specifically after approximately 50 snaps. I suspect that this relates mostly to fatigue of their very heavy DL since the run defense was impacted significantly. It happened way too many times to be a coincidence. This is why I think it's kinda crazy for LSU to invite inflated play counts by going HUNH. Using no huddle and quick throws is totally rational. There is no need to use tempo as the standard on offense. Using it selectively or threatening to do so prevents substitution. Using it constantly and targeting 75-80 snaps puts the defense in the 50+ danger zone for 35-40% of the game instead of 15-20% like most games last year. Like I said earlier I'm not sure they've really thought through all the implications of changing the offense.

I think that LSU's defense is going to be a lot less effective than their fanbase believes - especially late in the game. Last season they showed a tendency to falter anytime the play count got over 70. Watch what happened late in games against Bama (79 snaps). Florida (71) and aggy (78 in regulation, 107 total). Running tempo against a peer means your defense will likely have to defend as many snaps as your offense gets. Orgeron is targeting 75-80 snaps and I'm sure Tom Herman will be happy to accommodate him. Go back and look at how gassed the OL looked even in the 2nd Q against GA So. LSU has some really overweight linemen on both sides of the ball - especially the OGs and NTs. What is Ika or Shelvin going to look like after chasing down screens, outside zone and being forced to pass rush for 10 plays on a drive with no chance to sub out? Preventing defensive rotation is one reason Herman likes to stick with 11 personnel and play the TE as either a flex or H-back to get different formation looks.

SEC PTB forced Mumme and Leach out of the conference more than 20 years ago specifically so they could evade change.

Georgia Southern stuffed LSU's ground attack with 5-6 in the box vs 11 and 10 personnel. Orgeron is playing into Orlando's hands by going 3 and 4 wide. Texas will likely use 3-2-6 dime as the base defense. That puts one more safety on the field - which is the strongest and deepest position group on the defense. Maybe just as important, it gets a question mark at LB OFF the field. With Ossai and McCullough playing the 2nd level I'm very comfortable with that group.

They had O-Line problems last year. Running game was only 4.0 YPC. Gave up 35 sacks and 89 TFLs. Sacks should be lower if they can get the ball out on time in the quick game. But they are on pace for 91 TFLs and the competition gets a lot better after game 1. The same issues are there for LSU's offensive line but they are manifesting differently.

I'll just quote the actual point that you missed the first time: edit: negged for lack of reading comprehension (if I'm feeling generous) or utter idiocy

It seems to be implanted. Sort of like Joe Dirt's mullet.

No. He and Michelle are going to do lines off a stripper's tits at midfield just before the coin flip.

More accurately: it don't make a shit. Texas has a HC that produced a NC winning offense with a 3rd string QB. Lack of depth is hardly a deal breaker in Tom Herman's world.

One reason the first game tells us so little about LSU's offense is the fact that Georgia Southern's pass rush was so bad. 26 sacks last year was tied for #74 nationally and they tied for #89 the year before. When you consider that was in the Sun Belt the lack of pressure is not surprising. They managed to produce a modicum of a pass rush 4 times, not counting planned releases for screen plays. Bad things happened for LSU every time that occurred. 7:00 mark 1st Q - edge rusher forces a hurried throw; completed swing pass goes for (-1) yard. 4:25 2nd Q - sound pocket but shrinking; Burrow gets happy feet and starts doing the pee pee dance in the pocket; underthrown into traffic and incomplete 12: 35 3rd Q - forced to retreat within the pocket; check down to the RB complete for (-1) yard. 5:15 2nd Q - only heavy pressure of the game; interior rusher beats the block and comes free; Burrow takes a hit after releasing the ball; short out is underthrown and incomplete. That last one is worth showing: Obviously LSU fans aren't accustomed to the implications of a quick passing offense. It leaves little room for error and an incompletion is very similar to a tackle for no gain in the running game. The difference between a throw hitting the receiver in stride and one that forces them to stop their momentum can easily be 5-10 yards so even small errors in location can have a big impact on production. Operating from a clean pocket with clear pre-snap reads and very little pressure, Burrow wasn't even forced to take one step off his preferred spot on most dropbacks. He was able to hit swing passes and crossing routes in stride regularly. That enabled LSU's athletes to maximize their large talent margin over the defense. On the few occasions Georgia Southern got even moderate pressure, that didn't work so well. That's very encouraging to me because Texas will be able to create more frequent pressure on the front end and LSU's talent margin on the back end will be far smaller or even non-existent.

I suspect that Aranda is a secondary target. This one looks to be aimed squarely at Alex Grinch and Lincoln Riley. Grinch likes to stem his DL late in the play clock and shift them around pre-snap. Let them get up out of the their stance then blow them off the ball. It's much like a quick count in terms of forcing the DL to play vanilla base and punishing them for games up front.

Obviously he's not the only one. Chaisson opened his mouth before Divinity did. Likely systemic. You're seeing the mindset behind uncontrolled and undisciplined aggression right here. It's the guy thumping his chest and trying to intimidate the opponent with talk. We saw the same talk, the same disrespect and the same arrogance from a better SEC team before the Sugar Bowl. This is the guy that will fire off too aggressively and overpursue the play. The guy will get burned by misdirection from a smart coach who can see him coming. It's the same attitude Georgia showed early and that the swing passes, play action and screens in the opening series script were designed to exploit. Orgeron doesn't have much control over these guys and it shows.

Sounds like it's time for an LSU vs the Greatest Armies in History thread. At least USC had actually accomplished something before talking so much trash.