sushihorn

The thing I remember most about Earl's recruitment is this: https://people.com/archive/if-earl-campbell-does-win-the-heisman-it-wont-be-for-the-gipper-but-for-mom-vol-8-no-23/

Texas was an 11 pt dog to the last unbeatable SEC team. http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=2187 https://www.bovada.lv/sports/football/college-football

A lot of books now have Texas as a 6 point dog at home. Most of them have the moneyline at +200 or more.

Endurance is likely to be a major factor this week. LSU has an enormous D Line with only moderate depth. The NT position in particular is vulnerable to fatigue. The starter is 350 lb Tyler Shelvin. We all know that snap count is an issue for Coburn who is slightly smaller. The #2 NT is even heavier, 360 lb true freshman Siaki Ika. There doesn't appear to be much behind them. The starting DEs are also quite large - both in the 310 lb range. There are good, veteran backups at this position who are still around 300 lbs. I expect a lot of perimeter passes to force these big bodies into long pursuits. Texas doesn't huddle and does a good job of preventing substitutions during drives. If the Horns can keep these guys on the field, they might have to alternate drives rather than plays and fatigue will set in quickly in the heat. While Texas uses tempo selectively, LSU appears to be committed to (medium) tempo as their standard pace. I suspect this is going to stress their defense greatly. To test this hypothesis I looked at last year's results. LSU's defense only had to play 70 snaps 5 times. Once was SE La which was able to sustain some drives but didn't have to horses to do much beyond that. The other 4 were La Tech, Florida, Bama and aggy. aggy ran a total of 107 offensive plays, 78 of them in regulation. Once the play count reached 70, the LSU D was never able to stop them. Bama scored TDs on 2 of their last 3 drives, not counting killing the clock at the end. Those 3 drives; 7 plays for 72 yds, 5-32 and 8-80. They resulted in nearly as many points as the first 8 Bama drives. Florida also scored 2 TDs late but one was defensive. Their offense did mount a pair of 9 play drives, one resulting in the decisive TD late in the game. La Tech did most of their damage in the 2nd half as well. 3 consecutive drives resulting in 191 yds on 29 plays for 2 TDs. Their last 2 drives were snuffed out after one first down on each. This game is a bit more ambiguous but also the one where LSU enjoyed the largest talent differential. Last year LSU struggled on defense anytime the opponent ran 70 plays or more. It looks like fatigue is a very real issue for them. It is one that can easily be aggravated by running tempo on offense themselves. It's part of the reason for the offenses dominating in the Big XII statistically. Obviously this wasn't a problem against a bad, one dimensional Ga Southern offense. Ten 3 and outs and 2 TOs are going to keep the defense well rested regardless of tempo used by their own offense.

Yes. Just as Georgia had the best ground attack in the SEC before getting stuffed by Texas in the bowl. There's a bit of a pattern there...

To be fair their LT Charles was better last year and did not play in the opener. The OGs gave up plenty of penetration in the interior gaps as well. It caused 7 TFLs in the running game but little QB pressure. GA Southern appeared to be playing the run first so their front would typically penetrate and read rather than penetrate and pursue the QB immediately.

Looks like someone had a ... ahem... "discussion" with Mr. Chaisson:

Not to worry. Yours will be over in 4 more posts...

They're more like jihadi suicide bombers fueled by hate and envy at the success of the infidel. One reason Texas should NEVER play them again is the true believer aggy nutjobs are always a risk to take cheap shots at Longhorns trying to ruin our chances because they had no prospects of their own.

Since they schedule so many weak teams, missing a bowl would be a failure of epic proportions. LSU usually plays 3 FCS / G5 autowins. They have Ole Miss and Arkansas on the schedule every year. That leaves them needing just one from MSU, aggy, Auburn, Florida, a scrub from the East most years or the one good OOC team they play. That's an incredibly easy road to bowl eligibility. At least recently, LSU has just experienced garden variety failure. LSU has shit their pants multiple time but hasn't shit the bed.

I don't expect a lot of outside stuff in the conventional running game. Herman is much more likely to use bubble screens and swing passes - especially swing screens to stress the LBs. Cosmi is very good at moving and picking off smaller defenders in space. Braun seems to have that ability also - coming from an option running team. Don't be surprised to see quick throws to the backs with a motion TE lead and the OT and OG looking for the next defenders. One advantage of smaller, faster OL is they don't need the extra time to get out in front of the ballcarrier on a screen. It can be done from something that looks like a regular swing pass.

Does anyone else remember the way aggy talked about the H2H series during the mid to late 1990s? Am I the only one having flashbacks here?

This is exactly correct. If the front 6 can bounce an inside zone run wide that gives time for the secondary to rally to the ball. But playing nickel doesn't leave much interior run support if there is A-gap or B-gap hole in the front. That can become a big problem if the corners are playing press coverage at the LOS which Aranda likes to do. Both teams can create equal numbers from 11 personnel by using the keeper threat to take an unblocked DE or OLB out of the play. The biggest difference to me is Sam's ability to pick up yards in the inside run game with power and counter. Extra blocker can make a huge difference with light to honest box counts. Burrow is more of a traditional bootleg-waggle outside running QB.

there's an echo in here

Can't believe I forgot this one. Meme #4: Tigah had a good bowl win with so many backups playing – UCF didn't even belong in a NY6 bowl. Their best recruiting class was ranked #55 nationally. Their other 3 classes on the field were ranked #62, #65 and #71. Talent wise UCF was probably a good match for the walk-ons left back in Baton Rouge. Sure LSU was down some starters and a few backups - in some cases due to stupidity. Yet the vast majority of their starters were available for this game and the missing players were from the least important position when the opposing QB could barely complete a forward pass. OTOH UCF had only 2 things that made them a defensible pick for a NY6 bowl: superior QB play and great coaching - and half of that equalizer was wiped out. Losing their starting QB completely crippled their offense - which was the strength of the team. And the 2nd string QB was terrible. That left a team with mid-G5 talent and no leadership. It was the worst mismatch of the CFP era. To find a less deserving team in a comparable bowl you'd have to go back to the BCS era and UConn backing in as 8-4 champ in a terrible Big East, then folding with a coach who had already checked out mentally before the bowl.

SSS is a HUGE loss for the Gophers. To run a quick attack like they did a team needs good passing and a great setter with experience. Without the quick game they have a hard time offsetting big, strong blocking teams.

Machinator = Skynet

It's like some catty bitch throwing a fit because a hotter girl wore the same outfit as her to the party.

Their starting O-line had a ton of experience. The youngest guy on that line was a 4 year starter. No doubt there was a talent gap in that game, but for our DL to put on that kind of pressure against a OL that had seen a lot of time, including Clemson's studly DL last year, I feel much better about us getting pressure with fewer blitzes ---------------------------------------------- I want to add onto this very good point. There is a fallacy going around that LSU could easily throw on Georgia Southern as they lack a secondary to stop it, while other secondaries (Texas being the most vocal) will not be void of talent (just experience). This is simply false in every way. Burrow craved up a very good pass defense of Georgia Southern. Did you know that in 2018 Georgia Southern was #54 in pass defense nationally? That’s better than Texas at #112. But Texas plays in the wide-open pass happy Big12, so the comparison is not fair.... Georgia Southern also ranked ahead of Auburn and Texas A&M. But Texas is DBU... talent is so deep. Did you see Jalen Green this week! It doesn’t matter who goes up against our CB because they practice against the best WRs in college football every day. They are all 6’6” and run like deers. No team will have better WRs. These are all things Texas fans AND analysts have said or written in the past 3 weeks. It confusing because... Georgia Southern CBs Kindle Vildor - 2018 2nd Team All American (PFF) - 2018 Sun Belt POTY (PFF) - 2018 AP 1st Team All-Sun Belt - 2019 Coaches Preseason Defensive POTY - 2019 Coaches Preseason 1st Team All-Sun Belt Monquavian Brinson - 2018 1st Team All-Sun Belt (PFF) - AP 2nd Team All-Sun Belt x 2 years - 2019 Coaches Preseason 1st Team All-Sun Belt Georgia Southern has 2 Senior CBs that played in huge games (Clemson last year for example), and yet Burrow craved them up like a Thanksgiving turkey. Perhaps we are under appreciating the work that LSU did on offense this week? ^Stolen from LSU247 LSU rarely challenged the corners. In fact 2/3 of their completions were so short they were in front of the LBs much less the DBs. GSU stayed in a cover 2 shell which made the position predictable and pre-snap reads easy for the QB. Texas is very much the opposite in terms of defensive design. My main concern is excessive complexity may confuse some of the younger DBs.

Obscenities are not required. I use them infrequently. But they are highly encouraged on Surly.

Good performance against bad teams doesn't have that much value other than to confirm that you don't suck. It can however expose areas of weakness, as I think week 1 did for LSU's running game. Every Longhorn fan old enough to remember the sack fest by UNT's DT should also recall that it was a harbinger of problems to come regardless of the fact that Texas won the game.

Damn. Knew I'd forgotten something. And just to be clear, by memes I'm talking about the thought process not your grandmothers.

Try playing the clear #1 offense in the country twice in a season then get back to us.

If LSU had ALSO run the ball well or even reasonably so, I think you would have good cause for optimism. To me it looks like LSU is stronger in the passing game but weaker with the run.