sushihorn

Wipe the mud off your feet (that's what the welcome mat is for) and come on in and grab a beer. If you're willing to talk football you will do just fine here. If you're just talking shit you may as well turn around now. Just leave your silly memes at home. I've seen a bunch of them while skimming LSU boards. Will address the worst and most prevalent right up front here: Meme #1: LSU is much more talented – LSU is slightly more talented. Average ranking of the last 4 recruiting classes is 7.25 for LSU and 9.5 for Texas. 2 spots in the rankings is not much of an edge and the difference is entirely due to the 2017 transition class. Meme #2: This game reminds me of Miami last year - If you actually think this you should check with your doctor for early onset Alzheimer’s. Texas is more talented than Miami was and far better coached. Miami was recruiting top 25 and stepped up with the #12 and #6 sophomore and freshman classes respectively. Texas’ prior level was top 15 followed by back to back #3 classes. Miami had a UGa reject as HC and a Texas reject as DC who was ridden out of town on a rail mid-season. _iaz was so badly abused by Big XII OCs he had to spend years in conferences with inferior offenses like the ACC and SEC rebuilding his reputation. Texas has a HC who steps up in big games. Tom Herman was 5-2 against the top 25 in 2018 and 6-0 at UH. We also have a top notch DC instead of the guy who made Taysom Hill look like Cam Newton. Meme #3: The Georgia Southern game was so impressive – Actually it’s very much like what happened the last time LSU faced a team on that level. The major differences between last weekend and the Rice game during the November bye week were two: LSU actually was able to run the ball effectively last year and they went +2 in TO margin this year instead of -1 resulting in quicker scores. So it’s impressive until you consider the quality of the opponent. LSU’s offense often looks unstoppable against bad teams. It’s impressive until you remember that last year’s offense did essentially the same thing to a different over matched scrub. It’s impressive until you realize that 70% of the passes were within 5 yds of the LOS and half within 2 yds of the line. A lot of those are going to be minimal gains or TFLs against a real defense.

LSU scored on 6 of 7 first half drives. Did you forget about the quick 3 and out already? And you're the guy that wants to lecture others about the scrub of the week being G5 rather than FCS?

What are you talking about? LSU pulled their starting QB after one 2nd half drive in both games. Going +2 TO margin early against GSU gave them short fields to score quicker. Going -1 vs Rice gave them one less early scoring drive in that game. Actually the Rice performance was more impressive. The LSU offense had the one TO but wasn't stopped otherwise. Against GSU they actually went 3 and out on one drive. So other than greater incompetence by the opposing scrub offense (2 fumbles) the LSU offense had a BETTER game against Rice last year than GSU this year.

But did they put it on the wall?

Moneyline all the way.

Is LSU at a different talent level than Georgia?

That's an excellent point. The best comp is probably Rice. It was late season so it's the closest in time. Burrow threw fewer passes but a lot more downfield. 20-28-307, 2 TD, 0 Int. 1 more attempt, 3 fewer completions, 28 more yards, but 3 fewer TDs. LSU actually ran well against Rice. They had over 5.1 YPC (35-180) and 4 TDs. The opener was pretty much the same result as last year - just got there differently. There's a good phrase to describe this phenomenon: a Distinction Without a Difference.

It's probably such a huge surprise to us because no one talked about Brady going to LSU in the offseason...

So you're angry and projecting your own problems onto others.. Got it.

You seem to be really angry and hanging a whole lot on the fact that I didn't notice an irrelevant team had moved up from FCS to the Sun Belt Conference.

In 2017, Texas entered the year as a 5-7 team. They played like it in the opener. In 2018, Texas entered the year as a 7-6 team, whose inexperienced QB cost them games with late turnovers. They played like it in the opener. In 2019, Texas was coming off a 10-4 season with a dominant victory over a top team in the Sugar Bowl. They played like it in the opener.

Playing a really bad opponent makes it difficult to draw any but the most elementary conclusions. FCS Georgia Southern fits that description to a T. Poor, one-dimensional offense led to short drives ending in punt or turnover. Consequently LSU was on a short field all night. GSU's defense was in a 2 high safety look with 5-6 man box most of the night. Usually that's an invitation to run. It also makes it difficult to disguise blitzes and coverage schemes. LSU generally used about half of the 40 second play clock. That is definitely faster than last year. It may give some SEC opponents difficulty but it's old hat to Orlando. That's a standard to slow pace in the Big XII. The replay video missed the first drive but of Burrow's 21 pass attempts I saw, he completed 18 of them. I frankly didn't believe the stat line when I saw 24 of 27 but it makes a lot more sense on viewing. What I saw was dominated by ultra-short pass completions (5 yards or less) with many of them behind the LOS. 12 of the 18 completions were in the ultra-short zone. 5 were clearly behind the line. All of those should have been in front of the defender. Of the other 6 completed passes, 3 were short (6-10 yds), 2 intermediate (11 and 16 yds) and one long (35 yds). Average completion was 5 yds past the LOS. YAC against simple, static scheme and inferior athletes seems to have accounted for approximately half the passing yardage. It definitely helped that GSU couldn't get any pressure (zero sacks and QBH). What is interesting to me is that what was already a mediocre LSU running game last season managed to look worse against such a weak opponent. 3.7 YPC when there were no sacks to distort the average is not good. That's doubly true where the opponent makes no special effort to stop the run. After watching the game, it's clear that the OL still has a serious problem giving up penetration. LSU surrendered 7 TFLs and they are fortunate that the number was so low. GSU defenders were in the backfield repeatedly. They just weren't athletic enough to finish the play in many cases. The number of TFLs could easily have been double against a better defense. LSU's OL were also pretty poor trying to pick off defenders in space in the screen game. The WRs did a much better job blocking on the perimeter than the linemen. Pluses: Burrow showed good accuracy even if the passes were mostly very easy. He got the ball out quickly 70-75% of the time. No sacks and very little pressure allowed. Only 2 drops by the WRs. Minuses: No consistent running game. OL still looked slow and could not keep defenders out of gaps. Not really tested or challenged since week 1 opponent was terribad. Conclusion: Burrow was very accurate throwing short passes to initial pre-snap reads or short check downs with 4-5 seconds in the pocket and minimal pressure. He's still hit or miss on intermediate to long balls. He won't have many clear reads next week. I doubt he'll have anywhere near that amount of time or protection either. Not being tested yet, we have no idea if that accuracy will hold up when screens don't get it done or he has a defender in his face. A lot of the bubble screens and short hitches will get stopped on the spot by better defenses. Throwing the ball a bunch against a bad defense that has no ability to turn you over or create negative plays is low risk. It often translates poorly against good defenses, Just ask Mike Leach. I have even less concern about LSU's running game now than before week 1. An FCS team stopped them pretty well just playing an honest box. That's a lot worse than the bowl game where a G5 defense had to load the box to achieve a slightly better result (against the run at least). I can see Texas playing a lot of dime with a 5 man box (3-2) and 2 overhangs

Hypothesis: SP+ has a significant pro-SEC bias. Design: Bias should manifest itself most strongly in assessment of group members who are being judged based on group identity rather than individual accomplishment. That should impact the bottom teams most as few bother to analyze them as individual programs. We will measure the lower ranked teams in the SEC by result vs SP+ projection. Kentucky (+7.3 SP+) vs Toledo (-1.5) = projected MOV 8.8 pts + 3.5 home field = +12.3 final projection (+14 actual); +1.7 deviation MS St. (+20.3) vs UL-Lafayette (-6.9) = +27.2 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.7 projection (+10 actual); -20.7 deviation Ole Miss (+8.5) vs Memphis (+10.9) = -2.4 MOV - 3.5 HF = -5.9 projected (-5 actual); +0.9 deviation Tennessee (+10.9) vs Georgia St. (-15.6) = +26.5 MOV + 3.5 HF = +30.0 projected (-8 actual); -38.0 deviation South Carolina (+15.3) vs UNC (+0.7) = +14.6 MOV + 3.5 HF = +18.1 projected (-4 actual); -22.1 deviation Missouri (+18.9) @ Wyoming (-1.2) = +20.1 MOV - 3.5 HF = +16.6 projected (-6 actual); -22.6 deviation Arkansas (+4.8) vs Portland St (not rated): no projection for SP+ but stat systems generally got this wrong e.g. Sagarin projected a 30 point Arky victory. For the lower half SECx3 teams that played OOC this week we had 6 results that could be predicted using SP+. 2 of those were quite close to the predicted result: Ole Miss and Kentucky. The other 4 were all HUGE misses. They were all in the direction of overrating the SEC team by an average of 25.8 points. In no case did SP+ underrate a lower tier SEC team. Conclusion: Within the sample set SP+ appears to be significant biased towards the SEC. The data set is not large but it is fully 25% of the relevant data we will get on this group during the season. The bias affecting the bottom half of the conference has strong indirect effects on the upper tier through SOS and similar calculations.

Fact: Mack Brown had ONE losing season at Texas. Charlie Strong had nothing but losing seasons at Texas.

This is badly wrong. You need to get your facts straight. Post 2009 Mack recruited classes ranked: #2, #4, #2 and #17. Avg of 6.25 Strong's classes were ranked: #17, #10 and #7. Even at the end, Mack was still a better recruiter than Charlie ever dreamed of being. The average of Mack's last 4 years was better than Strong's BEST class.

Take out Clemson and have the rest of the ACC join the G6.

Actually a high degree of internal consistency combined with complete divorce from reality is a hallmark of the best conspiracy theories.

They engraved it on their bowl rings. They can certainly print it on a cup...

Did anyoe at LSU notice that they gave up 16.7 PPG during their first 10 games? Those 10 included arguably the 4 toughest teams on their schedule: Bama, Florida, Georgia and Auburn. Then when the tempo picked up LSU surrendered over 30 to 2 mid-level teams. 32 points to a completely crippled UCF in the bowl and 31 in regulation to aggy - exhausting their D in the process and setting the stage for the 7OT loss. Do they really want to replicate the defensive performance of those final 3 games? Like I said before, I'm not sure that anyone on that staff has really thought through the implications for the defense. We see it all the time in the Big XII. I suspect that the SECx3 "tough defense" mythology maybe blinding them (again) to defensive consequences of changing their offense.

To understand just how bad aggy's rushing performance was last night you needed to watch the TSU defensive alignment. They consistently went with a light box and aggy still had great difficulty running against it. Against 11 personnel, there were typically 5 defenders in the box with 1 overhang man. Outside of short-yardage I only saw the Bobcats commit 7 inside the box when aggy used 22 personnel. It's easy to imagine that things get a lot worse against defenses that are individually more talented. But those defenses will also be in a position to use 2 high safeties to blanket 11 personnel while still putting an extra defender in the box. A bigger, faster defense with a free hitter against the run is going to seriously impact an already unimpressive running game.

Sorry folks. Closet's full. Cuck out front should have told ya'

Goal posts to represent The Jar.

To accurately assess aggy's performance we really have to compare it to their opening week scrub game from from last year rather than those against real opposition. QB: 19 of 27, 194 yds, 3 TD, 1 Int vs 2018 (17-25 for 184, 2 TD, 0 Int); Mond looks the same as last year. Rushing: 36 for 246, 2 TD, 6.8 YPC vs (61-503, 5 TD, 8.2 YPC). RBs: 31-221, 1 TD, 7.1 YPC vs (55-500, 4 TD, 9.1 YPC). Running game much weaker and less productive - esp from the RBs. Pass D - 29 of 46, 211 yds, 1 TD, 4 Int vs (18-35, 230 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int). The interceptions were a big change. Otherwise pretty much the same. Rush D - 8 yds net vs (21 yds net). Shut down overmatched scrubs both years. Looks like aggy is about the same as 2018 overall, maybe down a little. Running game much weaker but defense produced turnovers. Mond beat lesser teams deep last year but couldn't complete a pass beyond 10 yds downfield in half P5 games. He looks like he did in last years opener. We'll see if his drop off against better secondaries repeats.