sushihorn

So the computers still refuse to acknowledge that the SEC went 1-3 vs the Big XII in bowl games last season?

C'mon guys. It's obviously Muledick.

Lots of runs for short or no gain. Pretty awful when a talent poor team wasn't even loading the box most of the night. Was charting it during the game and it was really bad at times, especially in short-yardage situations. In goal to go situations, their best runs used their QB Mond. * = QB runs, bold = goal to go. Run sequence: 5, 20, 1, 3, 4, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1, 5*, 5, 14, 11, 5*, 4, 9*, 3*, 5, 7, 3, 3, 7, 4, 3, 0, 3*, 7, 85, 1, 7, 0, 3, 7, 5. Some of them were observant enough to notice that even in goal line and short yardage aggy often had to pass to pick up yardage against Texas State. That's a pretty good indicator that your running game has a problem.

After next week we'll see the OL panic level squared. Maybe even cubed.

Aranda is too predictable. He has 2 coverage schemes: Cover 4 and man-free. His CBs are essentially ALWAYS in man coverage. They can always be taken out of the play by running the Z and X WRs down the field as long as the QB holds the ball long enough for the DBs to turn and run. This leaves LBs trying to fly out of the box trying to cover the flats. Florida, Bama and UCF repeatedly exploited this weakness with jet sweep, swing pass and RB screen action. Texas did that to a lot of teams including Georgia. LSU also is very conservative and doesn't like to blitz. The usual answer is zone blitz - bringing 4 from 6 defenders at or near the LOS. That's part of the reason their athletes produced a slightly below average pass rush last season. Orlando runs a much more complex variety of coverages and blitzes. That may be why Texas struggles early in the season as even the smart players Herman recruits take time to master it. But an OC cannot count on any given defender being where he expects. Orlando uses a fair amount of cover 2, which makes the CBs available as immediate force run defenders from the edge. Unlike Aranda, diagnosing man vs zone doesn't tell the offense where the safeties will be and who is responsible for which zone. For example LSU runs match quarters Cover 4 as their zone. CBs in man, 2 deep safeties and 3 LBs underneath. Weaknesses are the flats, wide seams with only 3 underneath defenders that can be attacked with checkdowns or QB scrambles. If they go man-free the best mismatches will be a LB on the #2 slot or TE and the other LB vs RB in space. If the RB comes across the formation the coverage responsibilities get confused and either the RB or the #2 slot will be wide open. Also vulnerable to delayed QB draw once the coverage defenders turn their backs.

Why would I say something so stupid when the clear meaning was Texas whipped UGa with a normal performance; LSU played out of their minds in a way they were never able to replicate again.

Texas got it's normal complement of turnovers vs Georgia and dominated them. LSU got DOUBLE their usual number of TOs and a big ST play and looked slightly better. Basically Texas beat UGa with its normal game. LSU needed a huge anomaly of a performance to accomplish the same thing.

Even most LSU fans aren't dumb enough to buy that one. Miami had a ton less talent then Texas will field and their DC (now HC) was driven out of Austin on a rail. LSU fans like to talk about "talent" because buying recruits is the best part of their program. They constantly underperform the level of talent they recruit because the coaching and development is much less impressive. Texas OTOH is now led by one of the best gameday coaches in America. And as good a DC as Aranda is, Orlando is even better. And that offense LSU is switching to is a primitive version of what Texas has been practicing against every week for 3 years now.

I felt a little less gay after watching this...

Correct. He's got good straight line speed plus size and the power that comes with that. He's not nearly as quick or elusive in the pocket or escaping from it as the last couple of OU QBs. But he is fast enough to break some long runs and big enough to run over a lot of DBs once he breaks contain.

So the 12th man for aggy would throw the game for 30 pieces of silver?

I hope aggy enjoys being steamrollered by Tu. (Tagovailoa) again this season.

It's a status quo model. It relies on the same ceteris paribus (all else being equal) assumption that produces so many flawed projections in static economic models. Radical changes in personnel quality will be reflected slowly. Radical changes in coaching quality will not be measured at all except after the fact. In both cases, the 5 year look back period ensures that his projections are literally years behind the curve when a program does hit an inflection point. Even so, it's less that Connelly's system is flawed than that he is unwilling to admit or even accept it. If he had just stopped 2 years ago when he wrote that his system doesn't predict outcomes for Tom Herman coached teams none of this would be an issue. The snide commentary, the insistence that his model is correct and the anger at Texas for refusing to conform to it are exceedingly unprofessional.

FIFY Of course you have to also disregard wins completely and focus on "quality losses" or win-losses to make this argument anyway.

Mess with the Bull Get the Horns. Just ask Urban...

Did the Pedo Bear incident teach us nothing?!?

We've got reserves...

2019 Schedule update: Alabama: Duke* (technically P5), NM State, S Miss, W Carolina (FCS) Auburn: Oregon*, Tulane, Kent State, Samford (FCS) Arkansas: Portland State (FCS), Colorado State, San Jose St, W Kentucky aggy: Texas St, Clemson*, Lamar (FCS), UTSA LSU: Georgia Southern, Texas*, NW State (FCS), Utah State Ole Miss: Memphis, SE Louisiana (FCS), Cal*, NM State MSU: Louisiana – Lafayette, S Miss, K-State*, Abilene Christian (FCS) Florida: Miami*, Tenn – Martin (FCS), Towson (FCS), FSU* Georgia: Murray State (FCS), Arkansas St, Notre Dame*, Georgia Tech* Kentucky: Toledo, E Michigan, Tenn – Martin (FCS), Louisville* Missouri: Wyoming, WVU*, SE Missouri FCS), Troy S Carolina: UNC, Charleston Southern (FCS), Appalachian State, Clemson* Tennessee: Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga (FCS), UAB Vandy: Purdue*, N Illinois, UNLV, E Tennessee State (FCS) Once again EVERY SECx3 team has scheduled an FCS cupcake in 2019. 12 of the 14 teams actually scheduled a P5 opponent this year; Georgia actually scheduled two of them. Florida did as well but offset that with 2 FCS scrubs. So only 3 autowins from OOC for most of them this season. As a result, 2 SEC teams will play 8 games against P5 competition. 10 will play 9 P5 opponents and 2 will play 10 P5 games. In comparison, no Big XII team will face 8 P5s. Only Baylor will play as few as 9 such games. 8 conference teams will have 10 P5 opponents and W Virginia will play 11 (Mizzou and NC State OOC). The elevated number of non-competitive OOC games will continue to pad the SEC resume this year. So will the late season bye week. 4 SECx3 teams play an OOC P5 rival late in the year. The other 10 (including every team in the West) put an air mattress in the place to rest up in November. These include W Carolina, Samford, W Kentucky, UTSA, Utah State, NM State, Abilene Christian, Troy, UAB and E Tenn St. All the most objectionable feature of SEC patty cake scheduling are present and in full force again this season.

The idiot who wrote this has been constantly wrong about Tom Herman and seems to take the proof of his incompetence personally. Connelly refuses to explicitly acknowledge Herman's demonstrated ability to get his team up for the big game. 5-2 vs the top 25 in 2018 and 6=0 at UH. The only exception was with a dysfunctional 2017 Texas rebuilding from 3 straight losing seasons and starting a true freshman QB. The chance of losing a game the Horns shouldn't from the remaining 10 on the schedule makes this knob think a ranking of #31 or even #26 is deserved at 11-1 or even 10-2. I doubt that even an 8-4 Texas is outside the top 25 at the end of the regular season. Yet the same idiot has aggy ranked much higher even though Vegas has them as dogs in 5 games and 7.5 season win O/U compared to 9.5 for Texas. Talk is cheap. The people wagering actual money think Texas is a much better team than Connelly does. They also have an actual stake in the outcome.

On what planet is "completely reasonable" defined as: Texas loses every pick 'em game and 50% of the next 4 where the Longhorns should be favored (on average) by a TD or better?

Yes. He played some slot for Rockwall though he mostly lined up outside at X. I would guess they did so mostly to isolate their best athlete and to maximize the dislocation of the defense if they chose to double him. JSN has excellent quickness, carries speed through his cuts and shows good hands in traffic - all things needed as an H-WR. The first 2 characteristics are on display as he returns punts and weaving through traffic on tunnel screens. JSN also looks pretty tough to bring down (at least at the HS level) which shows when Rockwall uses him as their Wildcat QB.