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sushihorn

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Everything posted by sushihorn

  1. sushihorn
    When response rates are <5%, I bet they’re glad of any response at all.
  2. sushihorn
    Real Life butt dialed last night. The major anomalies in voter frequency were Harris and Bexar counties. Infrequent voters are in the 12% range there, much lower than statewide. Travis, Tarrant, Montgomery and Galveston are all above average in turning out infrequent voters, the last 2 to a somewhat greater degree.
  3. sushihorn
    Statewide for a baseline. Harris Dallas Bexar Travis Tarrant Montgomery Galveston
  4. sushihorn
    It looks like Election Day turnout is going to decide this thing since a lot of states are close in the polls, within the MOE but the EV is disproportionately in demographics friendly to the GOP. I think cannibalization is the big question now and I’m trying to figure out the best way to derive a reasonable proxy for that. I think the easiest way to derive a rough measure would be to look at statewide vote frequency and see how the large urban D counties compare to the statewide average. The R vote is dispersed through many more counties but it might be helpful to sample of few of the larger exurban counties as a reality check. I welcome suggestions to improve the design and best data sources. I can do this on Target Smart because they show county level data but if there is a more timely source with this data I’d prefer that.
  5. sushihorn
    If you can get granular data on that, I’m happy to try crunching it.
  6. sushihorn
    See above: Too many moving parts. Kamala is down slightly in swing state polling. She needs a plus factor v the polling models but the early vote is giving her the opposite. So a big shift is required for her to win. If the severe cannibalization thesis is correct, the Election Day turnout should favor her. If not, independents or some other significant demographic has to break hard in her direction. Again, uncharted territory.
  7. sushihorn
    Texas EV update - all data 8 days from Election Day. Olds still dominating but to a lesser degree. Numbers now are between 2020 and 2022. Urban votes have passed rural but rural is still disproportionate to both 2020 and 2022 All non-white groups are up v 2022 and down v 2020. Total EV now 5.25 million. If turnout looks like 2020, about 45% of the total votes have been cast.
  8. sushihorn
    How do you exit poll mail in votes? There are some states that are 100% vote by mail.
  9. sushihorn
    Yes, 8 days out for all 3 years.
  10. sushihorn
    I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for about 15 years now.
  11. sushihorn
    That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008. The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest.
  12. sushihorn
    I only have 2020, 2022 and 2024. PA EV was even more D skewed in 2022 than in 2020. I didn’t expect that and others states look different.
  13. sushihorn
    How about puzzling when it drops by 40%. 3rd party and unaffiliated are down less than 30%. I don’t think anyone is pushing them to switch to EV.
  14. sushihorn
    Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. PA party vote What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. PA voter registration The latest number I can find is D+300k. How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024 Then we have to figure out how much of the registration change is confirming already observed behavior and how much has yet to be captured in past data. With a trend of this size and duration, there are surely some of each.
  15. sushihorn
    What are you talking about? Brown is the senator from Ohio. I even mentioned the state in the text you quoted.
  16. sushihorn
    I doubt there will be enough to save Brown. We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way. Like a lot of places I’m seeing, the early vote is much older, whiter and more rural than 2020. Ohio specifically is even more rural than 2022, though not quite as white or old. When times are good, you see a lot of ticket splitters, since people can vote on personality. This year features an especially sharp ideological contrast at the top and the biggest issues are national ones: immigration and the economy. That tends to nationalize the election and reduce ticket splitting.
  17. sushihorn
    Target Smart I tried to edit into the original post but I only had the option to report myself.
  18. sushihorn
    Here are some charts that reflect the demographic biases within the 2024 early electorate:
  19. sushihorn
    There are very few scenarios where NV’s 6 EVs are decisive for either side. I’m watching it because it’s got a lot of data and the pattern this year is so wild. Between Covid and changing election practices, it’s hard to know how much of past modeling is valid now. A lot of analysts are struggling to build new models that reflect mail balloting and EV in general. Their difficulty is compounded by two realignments of the electorate in less than a decade: first creation of the Obama coalition, then a massive realignment of white voter preferences along class lines with Trump.
  20. sushihorn
    Thanks. So Ralston did a second update. That looks very different from what he released this afternoon. He’s seeing the crazy tilted demographics continuing, albeit at a slower pace but no trend reversal yet. Other states have seen some reversal. Younger voters have started to turn out, though they are still well under 2020 share. The same can be said of urban and non-white voters generally.
  21. sushihorn
    In GA, black and urban turnout improved with Sunday votes added. Still well short of 2020 share. Black share is still 2.5 points below 2020 and urban share is 4.8 points lower. This was the last Sunday of early voting, so Election Day is likely the only chance to radically change the composition of the electorate. I’m seeing a pattern here.
  22. sushihorn
    Per Ralston, the NV Democrats won their first day of EV today. It was not by a lot but the rise in Clark County mail vote did the trick. Dems are still going to need to win Election Day to carry the state but it is a trend change. R+32k among those registered with a party. About 125k NPA.
  23. sushihorn
    My point is that a repeat of 2022 isn’t worth discussing because the result would be obvious, plus it’s a very low probability. The GOP biased EV pattern would have to not just hold up through Election Day, it would have to intensify to produce such a result. In most places the EV result is more R-friendly than 2020 but less friendly to them than 2022. If you don’t believe me, how about CNN? The EV trend finally became so obvious that the media caught on.
  24. sushihorn
    Trump v Harris seems to only partially reflect the Trump economy v Biden economy. It doesn’t invalidate my point. It seems to indicate that Harris has had some success a defining herself as not-Biden.
  25. sushihorn
    Again, 2022 was an R+3 electorate. A repeat of that is a Trump landslide in the EC this year.

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