sushihorn

Trying to replace aggy misery(TM) with spelling and grammar smack just leaves me empty...

Tom Herman is the coach that has the largest positive win deviation from what the S&P+ model says should happen. His results are approximately 3 std deviations above the norm - which is Mensa indeed. Put another way, Herman is the coach who S&P+ tends to underestimate most badly, which of course we could easily infer from Connelly ranking Herman's Longhorns #35. https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2019/2/12/18221578/college-football-coaching-underachievers-overachievers-2019 Coaching overachievers and underachievers Coach Years Diff Wins/Year Percentile Tom Herman 4 1.49 99.8%

If George brings in Evans he will definitely be good enough to help win championships.

In statistical terms there is a strong recency bias in both models. That works if there is no dramatic change in the program over the measured period. It's pretty much a guaranteed fail when there is either a major upgrade or major downgrade in coaching. In theory the recruiting component should capture changes in talent on the field. There is nothing to factor in changes in talent on the sideline (and coaches' box). For any team switching its HC from Charlie Strong to Tom Herman that assumption is a really bad one.

LSU took 7 DL in their 2018 class. I'm surprised that attrition hasn't been worse.

A 4-3 (or 4-2 nickel) Under front can bring devastating interior penetration if you have a strong, quick 3-tech DT. That's the alignment from which Warren Sapp wreaked so much havoc for years. The issue is that both of your DEs become edge defenders, leaving the ILBs with responsibility for two inside gaps. The reason so many teams have moved away from this is because giving both the MLB and WLB/Rover gap assignments against inside runs really helps to open up the RPOs that are now very common in FBS.

Looking at Lincoln Riley's offensive system and the requirements to run it I'm surprised he'd let Austin Kendall go and take Hurts instead. The QB in this system must be reasonably mobile to make the keeper a threat as a constraint on the backside of running plays. He's got to be accurate to hit the small windows created in the passing game. But most important, the QB has to make quick reads and correct decisions on the fly to make this offense go. Arm strength beyond a reasonable median and speed beyond that required to be a running threat are not required. They are less valuable than accuracy (especially on the move), good decision making and familiarity with the system. Those are nice things to have but lower priorities. Frankly Colt McCoy would have been terrifying in this offense.

***Rant Alert*** The first thing you need to understand is that FPI and S&P+ along with many other statistical models don't necessarily take account of what actually happened. They take data inputs than simulate what the model says SHOULD have happened. IOW, they value simulation over reality. How else can one explain the utter stupidity of their rankings at the end of the 2018 season, after all the results were in? At that point, S&P+ ranked Texas as the #35 team in the country, 21 spots behind Washington with the same record and a weaker SOS, 20 spots behind 9-4 Pedo State and 15 spots behind 7-6 S Carolina. It's a model so grotesque that it ranked 5-7 Ole Miss one spot below 10-4 Texas. To top it off, the same "model" rated 2017 Texas higher than 2018 Texas. Those fools need to pull their heads out of their spreadsheets and look around at reality. FPI, while still moronic looks like Deep Blue compared to the dumpster fire of S&P+. They ranked Texas as the #19 team at the end of the 2018 season. How on earth they think the #19 team could split with their #5 team and utterly dominate their #3 team is a mystery but whatever. One thing that computers can't do is recognize that the Texas team that destroyed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was not at all the same team that lost to Maryland to open the season. Humans can see that, which is why the coaches and sports writers both had Texas at #9.

Without our rituals and even superstitions, we are lost as a people. Do you deliberately break mirrors for fun?

Both Fedora and Beaty coached HS ball in the DFW area and recruited in Texas for other programs. I would imagine that their contacts with the North Texas HS coaches network can open some doors for Herman. Tom and the staff he brought from UH obviously focused on the Houston area at their last stop. And any Longhorn coach has an in with the Central Texas programs. DFW is the one big talent pool in state where they haven't been the leader.

Sorry dude. 10-3 is nothing close to what that fool Connelly is projecting. He has Texas as the #35 team in the country, That's basically at the bottom of the "others receiving votes" or slightly below that. With the difficulty of the 2019 schedule, the Horns would have to be 8-5 or maybe 7-6 with some good victories to sink that low. This FPI isn't much better with Texas at #26. The reason why they're wrong should be obvious to anyone who examines their models. They both use a big dose of past years' performance as inputs. Four years back in the case of FPI and FIVE years for S&P+. Anybody think it's realistic to project Tom Herman's 2019 Longhorns based on Charlie Strong's record? Of course not; that's idiocy but it's precisely what both these models do. Connelly will still have Millstone Charlie dragging Texas down when he does his 2021 projections. Tons of blind spots in these models. The worst unstated assumption may be that coaching doesn't matter. To understand why Baylor is in the same region as Texas in these projections, just remember that the later Art Briles years are part of their calculation. Nevermind that they've changed coaches twice and turned over the entire team. The methodology really only works for programs that experience no significant coaching change during the look back window.

Don't know why you would say that. Every time I see Kim Kardashian, the phrase "smoke a fat one" comes to mind.

One from a guy who basically admits his model is useless for projecting Tom Herman teams. The other blatantly biased towards the SEC and promoted by a network with $100 million invested in the conference brand. So yes, there are Separate But Equal reasons for the bias.

Maybe he can get a Chicas Locas franchise in "T-town" lol.

You see my dear little agglets, it's a simple matter of English prepositions. Those who wish to play with other elite players go to Alabama, Georgia and now Texas. Those who merely wish to play against elite players can go to any school in the Sun Belt or Southland Conference. Or they can go to aggy. Glad we could clear that up for you. And you're welcome.

If based on Hindi-accented English that would be phonetically correct.

"Don't worry Kyler. All the rookies have to go through this..."

Well it's a homecoming of sorts for them. Coming back to Oklahoma as (football) seasonal labor is truly karmic. Closing the circle and all of that.

To be fair, a kid from Bakersfield or Merced might feel right at home in Collie Station...

And that reality is that they were able to achieve near parity with The University of Texas in a single endeavor (FB recruiting) for a period measured in weeks before order was restored. Moreover, that single competition was not an end unto itself but merely a single input into a much larger goal where aggy is so far behind TEXAS that we can't even see them in the rear view mirror.

I think Baggins would benefit from implants much more than extensions....

C'mon man. It's pfft, pfft, pass. Get it right. 😎

Yeahbut Bama....

And it applies to life far beyond the realm of sports. I'll start: After boasting about being the richest public university on the planet their current mental gymnastics to explain their demands for more money from the state legislature are truly impressive.