sushihorn

Milroe will make plays off schedule and convert multiple 3rd downs with his feet. They need to at least threaten to use him in the running game even if it’s a called handoff from a zone read look. Michigan’s front may be slow but they are tough in confined spaces and Bama needs every edge they can get in the running game Milroe will also make some head scratcher throws. You have to hope they aren’t game changing. As with Texas, Bama has better athletes which creates the opportunity for a blowout. Michigan is well coached and tough but I’d like the matchup of slot receivers and RBs on the Wolverine LBs if I was a Tide fan.

OU had 5 sacks against a very mobile Qb after averaging less than half that during the season. By the same token, their own pass pro was hamstrung when they were flagged for form tackling rushers. Arizona’s 3 sacks were above their season average plus they forced half a season worth of INTs and 5 games worth of fumble recoveries, one of which was virtually an interception and another due to pressure on the QB. This didn’t affect KSU much. They only had 1 sack, though again they faced a running QB. Nor do the Wildcats use a lot of drop back passing so they’ve never relied on holding as a pass pro technique. Texas is in a similar position for different reasons. The Horns make heavy use of play action, moving pockets, bootleg action and other misdirection. For that reason, I don’t see holding enforcement affecting our offense. Look at KSU, KU, Tech and WVU, not the Land Thieves. Slightly less time to throw might mean fewer deep shots but that hurts UW a lot more than it hurts us.

Sure, but our coaches will have a month to prepare for the refs. 🤣

We can see how Washington was able to run against the Arizona D. Their ends loose contain regularly on basic running plays. I’ve seen a 7 or 9 tech DEs crashing down inside and giving up the edge without any effort by the Okie OL. They just ran themselves out of the play.

One thing jumps out at me from the bowl games. Big 12 teams pass rushing looks so much better when not crippled by the blatant holding the league allows. WVU averaged just over 2 sacks per regular season game. They had 7 in the bowl game. TTU averaged less than 2 sacks but they put up 6 against Cal. OSU’s vs aggy was slightly above their season average. KU only got 1 sack vs a season average of almost 2.0 but they more than doubled their QBH in the bowl. With a B1G crew, I expect heavy pressure on the pocket and/or multiple holding calls. I want to see our DL penetrate gaps and read like they have all year but without a figurative monkey on their back. Penix will occasionally have time to go deep. I don’t want him to be able to count on having that time.

That is correct. They have to run or have a lot of success in the short passing game to force a safety closer to the LOS and open things up downfield. And only a real running threat can slow down the pass rush. Their outside receivers are very good on jump balls but that’s against single coverage, not with a safety over the top. IMHO Washington needs to at least have our LBs thinking pass first to sustain drives with the run. If they play run fits with a 6 man box there won’t be any room between the tackles. We will need contingent run support from a weak side DB but the team speed match up is going to make it hard for Johnson to turn the corner. I think UW will have to double team at least the play side DT to run the ball so there will be an unblocked defender with 11 personnel vs 6 in the box. That changes if the QB is a real running threat but Penix is not.

I’d look at KSU and TCU for defense. Iowa State did the best job but their defense is so different from Washington and I doubt the Huskies could replicate it. Maybe Wyoming also but Texas won’t play that way in the CFP. I’d also drink a lot since they have to hope they can keep Texas in the low 30s and hit the mid 30s themselves. Very narrow path there. Offensively there are few good models for UW. I’m sure they’d love to replicate the OU game but they and Bama only managed to manufacture a ground game with running QBs. K State basically runs a single wing with longer passes mixed in - totally different. UW doesn’t want to replicate the offensive performances of OSU, TT, ISU, Wyoming, Rice, KU or BYU. I think their best plan is to hope they can cobble together enough of a run threat against a 6 man box to force coverage risks like Texas took against OU and Bama. Then exploit that coverage with a better passer than Milroe or Gabriel. Like I said before, it’s a narrow path to victory.

It’s a BIG upgrade over the 2022 Alamo Bowl. They’ve also become less predictable with lower ability to run it down a defense’s throat. Less focus on B gap runs. As pointed out above, more gap blocking so power and multiple variations of counter even when we target a B gap - not just inside zone. There is misdirection incorporated into the whole offense so safeties and LBs have to hesitate and read their keys before running to the ball. Watch how often our OL reach defenders at the 2nd level. Defensive hesitation creates the opportunity to hit a stationary target and cit off pursuit.

I’m going to take a guess here: Motivation. Alabama is the top program in the nation in recent years. The game was played in their house and a victory would give Texas instant credibility. Plus Texas had something to prove after last year’s loss in Austin, Ewers especially. OSU was the conference CG. It was a requirement to make the playoff. Even if the opponent wasn’t all that motivating, the situation was. ISU doesn’t inspire hate plus they have that funky defense that is different and difficult to prepare for. Tech was a blowout. It didn’t matter that the offense “underperformed” and I net no one even noticed other than the bean counters. The offense that night was much better than it had to be to win the game.

Penix is a guy that can run for some yards if you don’t account for him but not many. The last couple of games, Penix has made several business decisions. I’ve seen him doing a full tuck to avoid contact after throwing a pass without any follow through. He got called for intentional grounding throwing to empty space when a rusher came free off the edge. Those were in the last 2 regular season games. I have to wonder if he will make the designed run or check out of it if called.

Texas is going to force the Huskies to honor the threat of the run. If THEY play a light box, I expect to see a lot of running plays. Texas can sustain drives running with 11 personnel against 6 men in the box. I would love to give them an even front without strength tendencies and then motion to overload one side. Since scheme is their strength, creating confusion about basic things like formation strength can dislocate them more than most defenses. 12 personnel would cause a lot of problems. Both TEs are good pass catchers and solid to strong blockers. That package would force all of their DL and LB to have responsibility for an interior gap. I would not want a DB as my force player on BOTH edges against the run. Nor would I want to be the DB trying to shed a TE block in a narrow alley play after play. The only way to avoid that is to switch out of their nickel base into a 4-3. I’m not even sure if they have a serviceable SAM.

Texas is a completely different team this year. Washington is mostly the same team with another year of experience. Look at the guys that make plays for them: Penix, Odunze, Trice, McMillan, Johnson and Polk. All of them started and played key roles last year and this year. Just flip Polk and McMillan due to injury to the later. I think it’s fair to use 2022 as a baseline for 2023 Washington and it’s one of the few useful measures we have of relative performance given lack of common opponents. It’s not great but it’s what we have. Texas OTOH has taken quantum leaps at several positions. I documented QB above. Sweat went from a part timer who didn’t make even 3rd team all conference to consensus All-American and Outland Trophy winner. AD Mitchell is a difference maker and a huge addition. A Hill is causing real problems; Burke has done so in limited action. Much of the team has seen the same incremental improvement as UW: Sanders, Worthy, Whittington and Ford for starters. Our Horns have taken a step back at RB but that’s been offset by improvements in the O Line. Again, Safety is the big issue to me. In sum, I think it is useful look at 2022 to assess the capabilities of UW, especially when discussing style, strengths and weakness. For reasons already stated, I think 2022 is less useful for analyzing Texas but it’s still helpful for looking at the way these teams match up.

I think it depends on how much man coverage PK wants to mix in. Muhammad can play press man. That will squeeze the screen game, which IMHO is more of a threat than a conventional rushing attack. Against the run, if our DE/Buck can hold the edge, then outside runs become a pursuit to the sideline. A press corner can easily turn that into a TFL or become a substitute force player if the kick out block softens the edge without caving it on. Since PK will trust his DTs and A Hill to stop inside runs, having an extra force man at the LOS will help a lot against outside runs. It doesn’t hurt that our D can key on Johnson once he gets the ball. He’s not really a threat to pull up for a halfback pass.

Also, does anyone think that Washington can win by scoring 27 points this year? They needed 10 drives to score 27 against last year’s D and that’s a losing score against Texas now. Only Iowa State held UT to fewer than 29 points this season and Washington’s D is nowhere near as difficult to prepare for. Improvement in the offense is going to force UW to score a bunch to keep up. This is not a crippled version of the offense from a 4 loss, marginally ranked team. QB went from 58% completions to 71%, QBR 133 to 163, 7.4 to 9.0 YPA. Rushing is down slightly but much better than what UW saw last year. I suspect they will have to virtually abandon the run in order to do so. They are a pass heavy offense already: 60% pass even trying to run out the clock in close games late. A few drives ending after they end up behind the chains trying to force the run will likely reinforce that tendency.

Yep. Texas played 4-2-5 alignment consistently vs 11 personnel. Washington couldn’t break big plays in the passing game against it. They were able to run semi-consistently against that front. Texas is so much better in the front 6 this year that it’s not even funny. I doubt UW will have any sustained success against a 6 man box this year. Much better backs than Johnson have failed spectacularly against this Longhorn Defense. KSU builds their whole identity around the running game, including the QB run. They had less than 20% of their normal rushing output without Texas loading the box. Ollie Gordon won the Doak Walker and he was completely shut down. Texas has solid cover corners now and PK recognizes that, mixing in some press man as the season went on. That increases the number of coverage options (and problems reading the D) significantly. I have some concerns about safety play but I suspect the Horns can replicate much of last year’s bowl pass defense and stop the run with 6.

Texas can and will use Amoeba looks. One end spot is a stand up Buck LB in base and we’ve seen plenty snaps with 2-4 pass rushers standing up at the LOS. Mixing up coverage looks is critical to slowing down Penix’ reads since he can make the throws once he identifies the coverage. Pressure can force him into bad throws and confusing the QB with disguised coverage can allow late pressure to get to home. They feed off each other.

UO did not challenge the LBs at all. They could play their run fits without worrying about getting too far out of position in coverage. The shallow routes didn’t require drops of more than 6-8 yards and they started 3-5 yards off the LOS. Bootleg action with 2-3 stacked routes is a concept Sark uses a lot. It both floods one side of the zone and stresses the LBs severely. The misdirection and route combinations are going to force the UW LBs to run sideline to sideline and 20 yards deep. Very different picture than defending Oregon.

They do not. But talent isn’t the biggest issue for them. It’s time and experience in system. The UW starting roster is full of 4th and 5th year players. Penix has played in this system for six years, including at Indiana. Their receiver group has worked together and with Penix continuously for 2 years. Any backups would be a big drop in unit cohesion, time and experience in system.

I’ve watched a few more UW games while I’ve had time off. Trice at DE looks like their best on the defensive side of the ball. He’s quick and has good size but I was shocked to see how high he was projected in the draft. Upon further reflection, Inge and Morrell appear to be limiting Trice’s pass rush by scheme. They seem to be trying to avoid over penetration to keep contain off tackle and they slant him to inside gaps too. They seem to be using Trice to cover weaknesses elsewhere on the DL.

I don’t think Physicality means what they think it does. They did a good job of pass pro due to positioning and they are mobile but they got stuffed repeated trying to drive block - even by inferior defensive fronts. OSU, WSU and ASU got pressure and even disrupted the outside runs with pulling OL. Alignment and toughness holding the edge are keys to stopping PnP and counter. Texas standard 4 man front is the right alignment against off tackle runs. The DE and Buck LB just need to honor their run responsibility before getting too far upfield.

I hope and pray they load the box trying to stop the run. Press man doesn’t help cover a motion man and cover 0 can be seen pre-snap. While X and AD are the most dangerous receivers, Ewers has great trust in both Whittington and Sanders to convert. UW has big, physical DBs. They tend to manhandle receivers in coverage but they are far from ideal cover corners. They do much better in cover 3 zone. They don’t have the quickness to blanket cover our outside guys man to man and cover 0 guarantees big plays if the first man misses the tackle.

So we could say you have a Freaky Friday Football Fantasy. Or perhaps a fetish?

Ah, the FedEx Years…

Was that the East German women’s team?

UW has the better WR corps. Sanders at TE is more of an equalizer than an edge IMHO. I like our guys for YAC because they’re quick. But Odunze is one of the best at making the play while covered and Polk is pretty damn dangerous there as well.