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sushihorn

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Everything posted by sushihorn

  1. Hollywood says “hold my Chardonnay.”
  2. I’ve been looking for this data and finally found it. Women are not a monolithic group and they are a large group so it makes sense to drill down. Pew Research looked at political preferences among women by relationship status and there are huge group differences. Married, widowed and divorced women are narrowly divided by party preference: married R+5, widowed D+1, divorced D+7. Cohabitators are D+31 and never married are D+48. Lesbian and Bi are D+71. It’s pretty clear where the gender gap comes from and why it looks like the Grand Canyon in socially liberal cities. I think cultural attitudes towards marriage are a major reason for the rural-urban contrast.
  3. Early voting was generally a small part of total turnout in 2016. FL was a major exception: half the vote was early. Notice that the error there was 2.6% which is better than most traditional polls did that year. If 50% is reasonably predictive, I’m going to say 70-75% should be also.
  4. With EV being so huge, the ballots cast so far should look a lot like the final electorate. That’s bad news for Harris. Young adults are 10.5% of the 2024 EV vs 16.2% of the 2020 total vote. Black vote share is down a point (28.9 v 29.9). Urban share is 16.7% v 19.0% 4 years ago and rural is taking share from the suburbs as well as the cities. https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=final_eday_voted_count_&demo_filters=[{"key"%3A"age"%2C"value"%3A"All"}]&state=GA&view_type=state You can’t replicate the 2020 electorate, much less the Obama Coalition when young voters and urban voters stay home. How do you move the numbers when 70-75% of the votes are already cast? The shortfall of black support is smaller a can be made up by the 25-30% yet to vote but that is not enough by itself. Like NV, the remaining votes have to look radically different for Kamala to win.
  5. When response rates are <5%, I bet they’re glad of any response at all.
  6. Real Life butt dialed last night. The major anomalies in voter frequency were Harris and Bexar counties. Infrequent voters are in the 12% range there, much lower than statewide. Travis, Tarrant, Montgomery and Galveston are all above average in turning out infrequent voters, the last 2 to a somewhat greater degree.
  7. Statewide for a baseline. Harris Dallas Bexar Travis Tarrant Montgomery Galveston
  8. It looks like Election Day turnout is going to decide this thing since a lot of states are close in the polls, within the MOE but the EV is disproportionately in demographics friendly to the GOP. I think cannibalization is the big question now and I’m trying to figure out the best way to derive a reasonable proxy for that. I think the easiest way to derive a rough measure would be to look at statewide vote frequency and see how the large urban D counties compare to the statewide average. The R vote is dispersed through many more counties but it might be helpful to sample of few of the larger exurban counties as a reality check. I welcome suggestions to improve the design and best data sources. I can do this on Target Smart because they show county level data but if there is a more timely source with this data I’d prefer that.
  9. If you can get granular data on that, I’m happy to try crunching it.
  10. See above: Too many moving parts. Kamala is down slightly in swing state polling. She needs a plus factor v the polling models but the early vote is giving her the opposite. So a big shift is required for her to win. If the severe cannibalization thesis is correct, the Election Day turnout should favor her. If not, independents or some other significant demographic has to break hard in her direction. Again, uncharted territory.
  11. Texas EV update - all data 8 days from Election Day. Olds still dominating but to a lesser degree. Numbers now are between 2020 and 2022. Urban votes have passed rural but rural is still disproportionate to both 2020 and 2022 All non-white groups are up v 2022 and down v 2020. Total EV now 5.25 million. If turnout looks like 2020, about 45% of the total votes have been cast.
  12. How do you exit poll mail in votes? There are some states that are 100% vote by mail.
  13. Yes, 8 days out for all 3 years.
  14. I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for about 15 years now.
  15. That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008. The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest.
  16. I only have 2020, 2022 and 2024. PA EV was even more D skewed in 2022 than in 2020. I didn’t expect that and others states look different.
  17. How about puzzling when it drops by 40%. 3rd party and unaffiliated are down less than 30%. I don’t think anyone is pushing them to switch to EV.
  18. Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. PA party vote What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. PA voter registration The latest number I can find is D+300k. How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024 Then we have to figure out how much of the registration change is confirming already observed behavior and how much has yet to be captured in past data. With a trend of this size and duration, there are surely some of each.
  19. What are you talking about? Brown is the senator from Ohio. I even mentioned the state in the text you quoted.
  20. I doubt there will be enough to save Brown. We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way. Like a lot of places I’m seeing, the early vote is much older, whiter and more rural than 2020. Ohio specifically is even more rural than 2022, though not quite as white or old. When times are good, you see a lot of ticket splitters, since people can vote on personality. This year features an especially sharp ideological contrast at the top and the biggest issues are national ones: immigration and the economy. That tends to nationalize the election and reduce ticket splitting.
  21. Target Smart I tried to edit into the original post but I only had the option to report myself.
  22. Here are some charts that reflect the demographic biases within the 2024 early electorate:
  23. There are very few scenarios where NV’s 6 EVs are decisive for either side. I’m watching it because it’s got a lot of data and the pattern this year is so wild. Between Covid and changing election practices, it’s hard to know how much of past modeling is valid now. A lot of analysts are struggling to build new models that reflect mail balloting and EV in general. Their difficulty is compounded by two realignments of the electorate in less than a decade: first creation of the Obama coalition, then a massive realignment of white voter preferences along class lines with Trump.
  24. Thanks. So Ralston did a second update. That looks very different from what he released this afternoon. He’s seeing the crazy tilted demographics continuing, albeit at a slower pace but no trend reversal yet. Other states have seen some reversal. Younger voters have started to turn out, though they are still well under 2020 share. The same can be said of urban and non-white voters generally.
  25. In GA, black and urban turnout improved with Sunday votes added. Still well short of 2020 share. Black share is still 2.5 points below 2020 and urban share is 4.8 points lower. This was the last Sunday of early voting, so Election Day is likely the only chance to radically change the composition of the electorate. I’m seeing a pattern here.
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