I’m going to say that the trends I’m seeing across a lot of states match the much more detailed reports from Ralston in NV. Rural turnout is massive. Urban turnout is low and Clark County is only a few points +D. Racial minorities are not showing up in large numbers.
Race is a minor factor in AZ and WI. But in PA, black vote share is down by a third and that matters. There is a small in black vote share in MI but NC and GA have large black populations, which are the Democrat core in those states. A 3.4 point decline in NC is potentially decisive.
I did a thought experiment: if a group that traditionally favors one party heavily starts to shift away, how would that manifest? Votes share shift would not be visible until ballots are counted. But partisan slippage would also manifest as non-participation to a degree. Would rural turnout increase dramatically, only to shift towards Democrats? It seems unlikely. What I would expect is that as some votes shift, others would stay home rather than vote D instead of R.
So which demos are showing this pattern of declining participation? Young voters, non-white voters, urban voters and to a small extent, female voters are. 2020 is a terrible year to use for a baseline due to Covid and mass mail, but it’s what we have. We can build models but we also need real world historical data as a reality check.
There is still time to change the trend, but the total EV is getting pretty large and that task is growing more difficult. If Ralston is estimating turnout correctly, 40-45% of the final total votes have already been cast.