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sushihorn

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Everything posted by sushihorn

  1. Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020.
  2. Mail in skews D and IPEV skews R everywhere I’ve seen. Historically, ED skews R relative to EV. We’re seeing voter behavior change this cycle so there’s little basis to determine how much of the R strength in EV reflects turnout of low propensity and new voter vs time shift of existing voters that will cannibalize ED turnout to a large degree. The NV blog posted stuff tonight suggesting there is a big partisan gap in turnout by the low propensity vote. OTOH the pro GOP EV gap did shrink a bit today.
  3. It represents 20% cumulative turnout. We are analyzing the data we have, not a complete data set or even a representative sample, not yet.
  4. Georgia EV by gender Overall vote trends female, EV even more so. This year’s EV shows a female bias but less so than historically. This seems to be true across a wide swath of states.
  5. If you use 2020 as a baseline for turnout, you will be very disappointed. Without mass mail balloting, turnout is down pretty much everywhere. Here in Texas, that is less of a factor since we didn’t get elevated numbers from mail but return to normal early voting will have an impact here What we are seeing is depressed urban turnout, which reflects national trends. Target Smart has our early vote as 32% rural, 37% suburban and 31% urban. By comparison, the 2020 early vote 13 days out was 21% rural, 35% suburban and 44% urban. That’s an 11 point shift from urban to rural, with another 3 points bleeding to the suburbs. A swing state example: the early electorate in NC is 6.6% more rural than in 2020. Two thirds of that is at the expense of the cities. That same trend in NV is driving the wild EV numbers out of that state.
  6. Bama still hasn’t figured out the delayed blitz.
  7. I don’t know about good but better than Bama for sure. I’m probably overreacting to the offensive shot show.
  8. Neither team is passing effectively. D-Lines are legit. O-Lines, not so much.
  9. Unlike FSU, Pussy is still undefeated.
  10. Michigan shutout of Iowa looks much more impressive now. 😂🤣
  11. As a diploma mill, I don’t think it’s any worse than OU or Mississippi State. I realize that’s a low bar but…
  12. Organizations built to operate under Black Market conditions rarely maintain their position as that market sector is legalized. Free markets require very different skill sets.
  13. Bush. And I don’t mean the president. no CR
  14. I focused on UW in the other write ups since I’m writing for Texas fans and figure that most of us know our own team:: UW Offensive Line UW Defense
  15. I don’t see UW having any consistent running between the tackles. Their off tackle runs are going to require their OL to get good movement against our edges and combo up to the LBs. If our play side DE and LB can force the run wide, I like the odds of pursuit and safety support stopping Johnson from turning the corner. Remember Reggie Bush bounced stuff outside and turned it up for big gains all season in 2005. When he faced the speed of Texas he couldn’t do that and Lendale White became the bigger threat. I expect that sort of effect if our defensive front can avoid giving UW a soft corner in the run game.
  16. Salary caps can only exist under a true cartel arrangement. Those arrangements are only possible in pro sports because the league structures sit above the teams and have special antitrust exemptions granted by Congress. 1) The big boys of CFB aren’t going to let anyone dictate to them, much less impose parity. 2) The NCAA created NIL to organize a system that already existed as a Black Market. It’s recognition of reality rather than an exercise of power. 3) Lack of parity is one of the things that makes college sports so great. Low expectations and high upside incentivize Have Not programs to take risks. Think 1970s BYU, Air Raid at Kentucky and Texas Tech or the Spread rushing attack at WVU.
  17. I wish this was a complete joke but FSU is already talking about private equity partnerships. Foreign sovereign wealth funds is a short step from there.
  18. I know it’s Vance Bedford but there’s some good Xs and Os here:
  19. It’s a return to their glory days of the Chase Daniels years. 😂
  20. Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but he’s not better than Penix. The Longhorn receivers’ superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but he’s having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations.
  21. They are statistically #1 after facing dog crap offenses week after week. Michigan has a good defense that looks other worldly against their schedule. We can all point to very low scoring offenses on your slate. Tell me how great the top 3 offenses are that Michigan has faced. Mizzou held the Buckeyes down more effectively. Ole Miss was mot quite as good vs Pedo State. But those are the statistical comps vs your best opponents.
  22. Haven’t seen a televised pounding like this since Oz went off the air.
  23. FSU defense started with a bang before opting out.
  24. They’ve been fighting Kasserine Pass over and over since then…
  25. Did you watch your own video? The guy gets pushed towards the runner by the block while the RB is stumbling. DTs need to be explosive and this dude takes 4-5 steps to really get going, even with a push start in the right direction from the OL. I’d hate to see how slow he would be if forced to change direction or accelerate on his own. USEFUL Speed for linemen is measured in the first few steps, not at the end of a 40 yard dash.
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