I’m starting to think the house odds should be closer to 60 / 40 GOP with the possibility of getting to 50/50 or better by Election Day. Biden’s approval is improving and the presidents approval rating is usually tied to house seats, but that correlation doesn’t seem to be very accurate in this election cycle. It can’t hurt tho.
there are at least 220 districts further to the left then the district the democrats just won yesterday. Just win those districts and we’re good right? It seems like killing roe v wade has made lots of new people register to vote, and has made lots of democrats eager to vote who would’ve otherwise sat this year out. We don’t know yet how many those people are. We are also seeing independents be much more receptive to voting democrat this cycle than just a few months ago.
I think the senate is looking more and more like a dem hold everyday and the house is slowly trending to the left as well. If Biden can sustain the momentum and the dems sell their successes to the public, I wouldn’t rule it out. The only thing that upsets me is gerrymandering. Big losses in Ohio, New York, Florida, Louisiana, and Alabama could limit our ceiling. Dems need to abolish all the bipartisan redistricting committees that only seem to exist in blue states and be out for blood next redistricting cycle. The GOP isn’t going to give us anything, so we need to give them nothing in return.