Esque

What the hell was that Nike commercial? Things that are never going to happen? But let’s pretend they are? I really don’t understand that one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yikes. I knew they weren't having a good game, but didn't realize they were that off. Not sure if it is just me, but this is some sloppy basketball. This doesn't feel like playoff basketball, much less a finals series. The winner of this is going to be a historically bad team we will remember. Feels like PHX should be up 15+ by now and yet MIL is hanging in there.

Are you my spirit animal? Couldn't have said it better.

So PHX in 5?

Bucks should be up by 15. No matter what happens, coach has to go. This is some idiotic basketball.

Everyone out here talking about marijuana. What really offends me is her damn smoke detector low battery going off while she’s doing these damn interviews today. Absolutely rage inducing. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

All in all, I can't remember a more unusual / weird NBA playoff year. How much of this is due to the time off last year followed up by abbreviated rest this year and a full season? Or were we just due for a weird playoff run? I honestly have no idea who is going to win any of these series, much less win it all.

I knew someone would come back with this. I’ve never liked any of that crap but Young does it at a different level. He’s looking to foul draw at every corner. I expect the NBA is going to change TJ IRR rules because of him in the off season. They don’t want that to be a staple of the game. It’s hard to detail, but using the eye test what he does is very very different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Trae Young is bad for basketball. He deserves the shine for his performance given the setting, but his foul seeking behavior is horrible, horrible, horrible. Also, these announcers suck. They complain when there’s reviews of out of bounds balls in the last two minutes where the ball clearly comes off a PG hands from a defensive poke and argue that’s not the right call in the spirit of the game. But then have no problem with Young jumping into people to generate ridiculous fouls. I hate this type of basketball. It is not fun to watch. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wife, for whatever reason, wanted to go to the movie theatre and see this. The movie was surprisingly very, very good. We both enjoyed it. Run time was a little long, but a great pace to the movie. We spent $$$ on IPIC and I have no idea why anyone would ever want to go to a theatre ever again. It was expensive, the prices for concessions were obnoxious, and I'd much rather have watched the movie at home. It was nice to get out of the house, but I'd rather go out for a nice dinner and come home to watch a movie next time. I forgot how bad theatres are.

Oh my God... this ending. You can’t write this shit. Wild. All time. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Yeah, yikes. How much value has he lost this season? Just in this playoffs alone? First Fultz and now Simmons. No idea what PHI does going forward if they lose this. Dump Simmons and do what / get what? Do you really want to continue to center the team around Embid? I wouldn’t. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Look, fair enough. Just not convinced Jeff Green was going to change the result - or anyone that BKN could go to. I think it’s important to give KD a break off ball handling and facilitating. He really shines when he has a Curry or Harden sharing in the ball handling and helps keep the gas tank full. Hence, I think I’m making the same decision as Nash in that instance. Taking my best worst option. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’d love to burn the Harden band wagon down, but hard to blame him this year. He was clearly injured and lost his legs. But he still added value. He was smart enough to facilitate and try to defend some. Had a very nice loose balls and steals. What was more inexplicable was MIL not exploring him the last several games. It was crazy. Only a handful of times did Middleton get matched on him and basically punked him and blew past him. There were times where Giannis was one on one in the corner with Harden and was shooting a fade away. Completely idiotic. Likewise, there was more than once Harden started dribbling outside the three point line and MIL shifted to double team him. Horrible, horrible, horrible coaching and absolutely idiotic play from MIL. As much as I wanted BKN to lose, a small part of me wanted MIL to lose because they clearly didn’t deserve to win. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Disagree. If you had to anchor your team today with LBJ or KD, it isn’t a clear choice. In fact, as much as I dislike LBJ, I’d still pick him over KD. He’s not an offensive juggxrnaught like KD, but he makes those around him better. KD is the best talent in the NBA, but I’d still rather have LBJ because of his leadership and ability to get others involved. Then you can always layer on other considerations too like health - I’d much rather bet on LBJ’s health, despite his age, than KD. Etc. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I understand that approach. The alternative is it is a speculative build and they sell it for that price anyways in market conditions when it is completed. Home building is really an onsite manufacturing business and therefore is sensitive to these large price swings in commodities. Even secondary materials are reaching all time highs and home builders are having to increase wages to get labor back to the job site because they've been making comparable money by sitting at home on unemployment. The Taylor Morrison approach is SUPER interesting. That's an administrative nightmare though, so I don't see that being a long-term trend. But I understand it in this market and expect they will increase their gross margin by taking that approach.

Yes, that quoted response didn't format as intended and it was too late to go back and edit once I saw it. Also, for context, we've narrowed our search down to a very small micro-market in Dallas where we're seeing three to five homes come to the market that fit our box a week. This is to say, we've been fairly focused and have been following up with our agent on homes that went under contract and fell out of contract. The responses we've received from the listing agents (most of which have followed up with our agent, knowing we toured but didn't offer) was people falling out because of i) buyer's remorse (or whatever you want to call someone getting caught up in a bidding war), ii) appraisal shortfall (not fully appreciating how much extra cash they'd have to come up with) and iii) multiple offers on homes. Granted, this is a super small sample size to date - but nothing has been mentioned on the condition of the home. Most of these homes are 1980s/early-1990s ranch-style homes that are in need of addressing capital expenditures and a renovation, i.e. they are all pretty down the fairway. So as long as something major doesn't come up during inspection, I expect all buyers are accepting the condition as-is because chances are they're dumping another $50,000 into them for renovations over the next several years. Like I said, this is a very, very small sample size and more of our observation. We'll see though. We put in another offer today, so will see how that goes. We are just going to keep working the process.

Maybe I am wrong, but time will tell. I just think the bidding frenzy that is going on right now is unsustainable - unless I am massively underestimating the migration to Texas. I also think part of the issue is transfer payments, stimulus, foreclosure moratorium, etc. A lot of that should play out in the next 12 months. Also, I am a land developer in Texas. The home builders are gearing up and are taking on more risks in that they are starting to make large land purchases and land banking to build lot pipelines. The other thing we're seeing is the proposed tax legislation is a concern for many high net worth individuals with land holdings, in that they are aggressively looking to realize their land and 1031 into income producing assets for estate planning purposes. This should further unlock land opportunities and help build a pipeline. You're right in that it will take longer than 12 months, but it will come.

What is difficult right now is there isn't a clear market. It seems agents can't give good guidance to prospective buyers given the amount of competition. As a random data point, we looked at this home over the weekend and chased it a bit. But it is going for over $410,000, all cash, with everything breaking the Seller's way, i.e. Buyer pays for title, 10-day close, sale-leaseback, etc. Pretty crazy. May just sit out a year. This isn't sustainable and the home builders will pick up the demand, even if it takes a year or so.

What are the macro thoughts on housing in major Texas metros here? Better to wait a year, or is only going to get worse post-pandemic with Texas seeing tailwinds increase?

Any thoughts on using a mortgage broker when your income is primarily derived from a business you own but are legally a W-2 employee? Said differently, I expect a mortgage broker is going to primarily take your W-2 income and FICO score to shop around your credit for a mortgage. Whereas does it make sense for me to put forth the effort to share tax returns, personal financial statements, and so forth to shop for that loan?

In this market, putting offers in without seeing the Property is standard operating procedure. We're actively looking for homes and saw another home we called on today. The Property was listed on Friday and it had 65 tours scheduled this weekend. We didn't bother putting an offer in, but only a fraction of those tours are going to get scheduled and seen, but I bet you that house has many, many offers. It really is a crazy market. As far as "new agents," I'm seeing a lot of part-time or side-hustle agents. They have a day job but are working with clients in their immediate network on finding a home. But their client list is very, very small. The barrier to entry for an agent is low as it isn't hard to get a license. I was talking to a construction sub-contractor for us and their design engineer got his license during 2020 and has been representing people buying ranchettes in Central Texas. I think you had a lot of people with extra time of who weren't as productive as they should have been getting their license in 2020. So the market is flooded with these part-time agents and they're not worried about "pissing in the pool" as this isn't their main source of income. A 3.0% commission on a $400,000 home is a nice $12,000 windfall for them. This isn't a market where the agents really have to hustle and therefore even as a Seller, you wouldn't be too worried about your agent's abilities. If you get 20 offers thrown your way, it's pretty easy to compare and contrast them and present top three or five to your Seller.

I'm enjoying the Bryson melt down at this point. My money is long gone on that bet, so might as well enjoy the show.

The Seller sets the commission and the agents negotiate on how to split it. In a stabilized market, the historical commission has been 6.0%. However, this has bee under downward pressure due to increases in technology, i.e. online platforms that integrate machine learning to help Buyers browse the market. My understanding is in this market the commission has been cut down to 3.0%. The practical reality is homes are being sold at unprecedented levels. You can list a home today and within 24 hours get your asking price, or above it. So work the math. You list your home for $400,000 and for 24 hours of work, the Seller agent walks away with $6,000. The kicker / reality is most buyers are working without agents and are letting the Seller's agent represent them, so they walk away with the full $12,000. Why? Because as a Buyer if you submit an offer, which offer do you think the Seller's agent is going to push? The one where they have to split a commission or the one where they can double up? Or guess who is going to get that last minute call informing them what number they need to get to if they want the home? Agents are making out like bandits in this market. The issue is there's not enough inventory and too many agents. I've known a number of people who used work from home during 2020 to get their real estate license. The market is flooded with agents, so not sure how well they're actually doing in aggregate.