Jump to content

blutow

Legacy Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    196

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by blutow

  1. blutow
    Besides the entertainment and $'s associated with a big game early in the season, I think it does make the team better (which hopefully increases the odds of winning the "easier" conference games the rest of the year). Kids/coaches are more motivated over the spring/summer when you know you have an early game with Bama/Michigan/Etc.. Playing a good team early can also highlight deficiencies that a cupcake may not expose. With the 12 team playoff, I think these games make more sense going forward than they have historically.
  2. blutow
    and Georgia also has a game to win to keep their spot.
  3. blutow
    The only thing the tOUS ranking indicates is that our chances of jumping champ Oregon are close to zero. There is no situation where tOSU is still in front of a conference champ on Sunday unless that champ is OKstate, Iowa, or Louisville (none of which will have a playoff spot). It's just to ensure tOSU gets the spot if all choas breaks loose.
  4. blutow
    Um no... The best case for a non-champ (georgia) has already be laid out well earlier in this thread and it's pretty clear there is no case or precedent that would put them in over a Texas, Oregon, Bama. With a committee making decisions at their whim, I'm not one of the people saying it's not possible, just that the chance of that happening is much smaller than chance of us benefitting from Bama/Oregon winning. It's been beat to death, but non-champs with same records as champs have never gotten a spot, even when the champ has a much worse resume (which would not be the case if comparing Texas to Georgia or Washington).
  5. blutow
    It's hard to wrap my head around it, but there are still folks thinking a 1 loss non-champ is a threat to a 1 loss champ. I don't know how to respond to that line of thinking other than hoping they aren't making the financial decisions for their families.
  6. blutow
    McElroy was basically making the point that it's never been about picking the best 4 teams and he used Ohio state (in a previous year) as an example. It was beautiful and Galloway about lost his shit. Best teams vs. deserving teams has always been a weird balancing act and has never been applied consistently. FSU will likely make it in because they deserve it, but Oregon is getting a boost because they are perceived as a better team than Texas.
  7. blutow
    The only way your view makes any sense is if you believe that there is a higher probability of a 1 loss non-champ Washington jumping a 1 loss texas champ (basically zero chance) vs. the probability of 1 loss Texas champ jumping a 1 loss Oregon champ (small, but greater than zero). Everything is possible with people being involved, but that's a really bad take if that's what you are saying.
  8. blutow
    Because there is zero chance of us beating out 13-0 washington for a spot. It's unlikely at this point we jump 12-1 Oregon based on the committee love for them, but it's a greater than zero chance and an argument could be made. Oregon winning increases our odds vs Washington winning. It's pretty simple.
  9. blutow
    As far as game watching - I'll be pulling for Oregon Friday night (even if we don't have a shot at jumping them, I'd rather play them vs. Washington in the playoffs) Saturday AM - Pulling for Texas Saturday Afternoon - pulling for Bama Saturday Night - Pulling for Louisville and Iowa We are way, way overdue for some upsets in these top teams this season. Odds are very good that at least one will happen. As long as it's not Washington or OSU, we'll have a shot. There would be nothing sweeter than Iowa over Michigan (a guy can dream).
  10. blutow
    Yeah, the committee has had plenty of chances to jump Alabama over Texas while we were struggling a bit and Bama had some good wins during that stretch. That isn't 100% guarantee a CCG win over Georgia doesn't tip the scale, but they clearly haven't forgotten about the head to head. The dialog I've heard consistently that Texas goes in over Bama based on head to head (even from Bama homers), but then in the next sentence they say the SEC champ deserves to go. Unprecedented conflict, I don't think anyone knows for sure what the committee does with that. I think Texas is the less controversial pick, but that may not mean anything to the committee
  11. blutow
    Either way, I just hope they play a better game than Florida did last week. FSU tried to lose that game multiple times, but Florida would have no part of it. That shit was hard to watch. Undisciplined, stupid football. I was just thinking how thankful I was Napier isn't our coach.
  12. blutow
    It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds. But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia. As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot. If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins). Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.
  13. blutow
    Agreed, but the order of the games is wrong on Saturday. Conflicted interests while watching the SEC game.
  14. blutow
    I was thinking about that angle as well, but I believe the Oregon love is too strong. I expected them to put tOSU at #5 this week in front of all the one loss teams. The fact that they elevated Oregon above and kept Texas and Bama below is telling. If Bama wins, we get the spot (based on head to head) or Bama gets the spot (because Bama/SEC and recency of win over Georgia). Most of the predictors I've seen basically makes the scenario a coin toss (ie - nobody knows how the committee would deal with it, it's totally unprecedented).
  15. blutow
    Hard disagree that a Georgia non-champ gets in. Much more likely that we pass up Bama if they win and get that spot. Nothing is guaranteed, but the chance of SEC being excluded is much higher than the chance of them putting 2 in with a non-champ. It's been beat to death in this thread, but all the times a one loss non-champ has made it was when there were no 1 loss champs in play.
  16. blutow
    The only new thing we learned tonight is that there is no situation where we jump Oregon. The rest of it is business as usual. FSU loss and we're in. Bama win and we have a good shot.
  17. blutow
    You don't understand how this works. They do this every year and every year people freak out about it for no reason. They don't apply the conference champ data point until after the CCG's. tOSU will not be above a 1 loss conference champ on Sunday.
  18. blutow
    Boom, finally the tough questions on Oregon vs. Texas and they have no answer.....
  19. blutow
    Love them some Oregon. Putting Oregon as the only 1 loss in front of tOSU tells me there is zero chance Texas could jump them.
  20. blutow
    Yeah, that's great against Georgia, but how has Texas done against the other elite SEC team? Oh, that's right, we're 8-2-1 against Bama. Ironically, Vandy is the only SEC team that has a good record against Texas. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll start chipping into that next year.
  21. blutow
    As an outsider, we can't possibly comprehend all the nuances of how hard it is to be an SEC team. It just means more.
  22. blutow
    I'm honestly surprised how many in the media are saying that FSU should be out while one loss Texas/Bama/Oregon should be in. I think it's wrong, but I want to believe... If FSU isn't #4 tonight, they are likely done if they don't look impressive in a win on Saturday. Besides the "better team" argument, I think the media hates the idea that we might get a "wasted" playoff game where FSU isn't competitive. I don't know how much the committee has the same mindset, but who the hell wants FSU in at this point over a 1 loss Texas, Bama, or Oregon?
  23. blutow
    There is a lot of chatter in the media saying this would be the solution. I still think it's a long shot, but it sure solves a lot of potential problems and only screws FSU. It's all going to come down to where the committee falls on prioritizing best teams vs. deserving teams.
  24. blutow
    Because people like that don't like to fall on swords publicly and admit screw ups. I could never be a politician because I'm the first guy to fall on a sword (even if it isn't mine) if it moves things forward. If you aren't screwing things up on a regular basis, you aren't trying hard enough.... Most of the committee members are glorified politicians pushing their agendas, there is no performance incentive for them to "get the right teams".
  25. blutow
    OK, but not in the same league of dumb as Jimbo's contract (or Lincoln's). Elko's an unproven guy. Maybe the base salary is too high or the term too long, but using incentives is a good way to only pay the guy if he does well. For me, the dumb contracts in college football are the guaranteed 9+m/year even if you suck. That said, I've got zero background in compensation for football coaches, I have no idea what makes these guys tick. But I've spent a lot of years around comp plans for sales execs and I don't mind paying them 2x what the CEO makes if he's knocking it out of the park. And a painless exit plan for non-performers if they can't get done in a reasonable amount of time. Why it has to be so different for coaches, I don't understand.

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...