blutow

If we win, I give us a 50% shot of making the playoffs.

Yeah, I don't know. Even if $17.5m is the payout for an NC year, that's not a dumb number. Shit like that drives finance people crazy (because it's hard to know what to plan for), but the reality is that will be a very rare year and even if he's winning an NC ever few years that's $ well spent. It's a way you can convince Elko he's making as much (or more) as the top guys without committing to pay him $10m/year+. Under that plan, chances are his average annual salary would be well under $10m, even if he's getting into the playoffs frequently.

The lack of clarifying language on those incentives is surprising. Maybe this is just the summary and that detail is elsewhere? Maybe the intent is to only get paid for the highest accomplishment, but it reads as if he gets a 10.5m (cumulative) bonus for winning the national championship. That's certainly how I'd interpret it if it was my comp plan. I'd be curious which way it goes. Honestly, a national championship is probably worth much more than $3.5m (and not likely to be paid frequently if at all), so I suspect it's cumulative. It doesn't look like a terrible contract, obviously a much better than what they get themselves into with Jimbo.

Pretty much all college football teams have flaws and there have been plenty of very flawed teams with national championships. That's the beauty of college football. A bunch of 18-22 year old guys are always going to make things a bit unpredictable. If we get into the playoffs, this team could absolutely get it done.

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend). I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible. I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.

It certainly didn't help. Agree that the Utah win was a big factor in the initial rankings. I don't think UH played into it that much, we had just beat BYU pretty convincingly. But I think the washington vs. OU comparison is fair. It OU had kept winning and we beat them in CCG, no way would wouldn't have jumped Oregon. It's already tough to justify Oregon being in front of us as it sits.

I expect it will be status quo other than dropping tOSU (and maybe swapping Georgia/Mich). They will probably put tOSU in front of some (or all) of the 1 loss teams and people will loss their minds even though it's meaningless.

OU losing to Kansas (and almost to UCF) was definitely a factor in Oregon being ranked above us in the initial CFP rankings. Those initial CFP rankings came out 3 days after OU lost to Kansas. "Quality of loss" absolutely matters. If OU had kept rolling and stayed undefeated, our loss would be to a top 4 team and we'd be in front of Oregon right now (if we didn't drop a game). And we'd have a chance to beat a top 4 undefeated in our CCG. Basically, the reason Oregon is in front of us (and we don't have a path to jump them) is that Washington kept winning and OU shit the bed. The only reason we "needed" OU to lose is if we were also planning to lose, which is just pussy perspective. All the "we'll have scoreboard on OSU" stuff is petty/aggy BS to me. Would have been so much better to crush an undefeated OU in the CCG and punch our ticket to the playoffs while sending OU home.

ESPN is the most SEC biased party out there and even their playoff predictor says it's basically a toss-up if Bama beats Georgia. Oh, and please stop the talk of a non-champ Georgia/tOSU getting in, the times something like that have happened in the past was a totally different situation where they got in over much less deserving champs compared to this year. I'm not saying it's zero chance since people are involved and you never know, but that's the least of our worries if FSU doesn't lose. Here's the link to ESPN's predictor, you can quickly lay out any scenario based on this weekend. I'd debate the exact odds on a few of the scenarios, but all of them seem directionally reasonable. https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor Here's what the ESPN predictor says if Bama, Texas, Oregon, FSU, and Mich win -

Everything comes across better when you are winning, but Sark really seems to hitting his stride in these press conferences. Just comes across as genuine and seems to be pulling all the right levers for the program.

That all looks way too reasonable to have been produced by ESPN. Maybe we don't have a chance.... The only thing I'd question with those numbers is that Bama and Texas are only at 84/88% with a Bama win and Louisville win. I can't see any way either would be left out in that situation. Do they really think there is a chance tOSU could jump back in?

There has been a good bit of discussion in the media about the possibility of a 13-0 FSU being left out based on the QB injury. I'm not saying it should happen or that it's likely, but Barrie isn't the only one saying FSU should be jumped by a stronger 1 loss team.

I still think we have a small shot even if Oregon wins, probably depends on how each of us look in CCG Louisville or Iowa wins - 95%+ Texas is in with a win Bama Wins - ~70% Texas is in (again depends on how those games go down) Oregon Wins - ~20% Texas is in (another eye test)

Apples and Oranges... They wouldn't pass Texas over because of Maalik because that was weeks ago. FSU is currently operating with a very shaky backup (and their starter isn't coming back). If he looks terrible again this week, that doesn't help FSU's case. In my opinion, FSU should absolutely be in if they win even if they look like crap, but it's being debated in the media.

I'll be interested where FSU lands in tomorrow's rankings. They "deserve" to be #4 and I expect them to be ranked there, but are clearly not the 4th best team right now. If the committee has them lower than 4, it obviously opens the possibility of them being left out after going undefeated. I know it's unprecedented and I personally wouldn't agree with it, but something unprecedented is going to happen this year if Bama/Texas/FSU/Oregon all win. One reason I think there is a small chance of FSU getting excluded was the committee chairman making comments about considering injuries on the show a couple weeks ago. It was a really short segment and he brought up injury considerations 2 times (but wasn't clear about how they consider them). You really have to go back to what the committee is even trying to accomplish. It's never been only about picking the best teams and it's not about most deserving either, it's some squishy hybrid between the 2.

Yeah, it's always entertaining when people freak out about those. But the rankings are supposed to be based on history and not look forward. I'm guessing they take some consideration about how things might play out in the future (to make their lives easier), but they aren't supposed to and it's a slippery slope if they start doing that.

Yeah, I'd actually be surprised if tOSU is not the top (or maybe the 2nd) one-loss team on Tuesday, but any 1 loss team that wins their CCG will jump back ahead of tOSU (and any CCG losers) the following week.

As far as I can remember, a non-champ has never gone in above a 1 loss champ. And Texas/Bama/Oregon would all be pretty deserving one loss champs if they win out. For the folks saying a tOSU/UGA/Washington have a shot as a non-champ, I guess anything is possible with the people pulling the strings, but it's never happened. All the non-champs that have gotten in in the past were over 2 loss teams (which won't come into play this year).

I think it's appropriate to rank losses. Losing to a shitty team vs. a highly ranked team should play into things, but it's certainly not something that should trump a head to head (and OU is still ranked, so not that bad of a loss in this situation). Bama has had more than their fair share of success, but I sort of feel for them if they ended up excluded as a conference champ because they had the balls to schedule a real team OOC instead of a cupcake. They deserve a playoff spot as an SEC champ with a win over Georgia, but I'd still say Texas is more deserving based on the head to head. Again, that's why Bama win (and FSU win) is worst case for the committee and why I think a Bama win could drag Texas along with them and leave out champ Oregon or undefeated FSU (who would both also be very deserving as well). A one-loss team is going to get really fucked next weekend if Bama/FSU/Oregon/Texas/Michigan all win. It's just a shitty situation with so many deserving teams that all have a pretty good case, but no clear rules dictating who goes.

Sort of. The only potential rematch left on the table with any decent probability is Bama vs. Texas (and the chance of that is still pretty small). But yeah, the "immediate" rematches we've seen in the past aren't gonna happen this year unless it's total chaos. tOSU already had their "playoff" game and UGA will have it this weekend. There's a good chance that tOSU will be ranked above us on Tuesday (and people will lose their minds), but that's pending until champs being determined the following weekend.

+1 on this. As much as I think we are clearly better than FSU with their backup QB, if they win next week they should be in. I give them credit for scheduling LSU even though LSU sucks this year.

Don't stop him, he's on a roll....

KSU losing yesterday didn't help..., likely lost one of our ranked wins.

On the CFP show a couple weeks ago, the committee dude specifically brought up injury considerations a couple times in a short interview. Of course, he didn't clarify how they are considered, but I thought it was interesting that he went out of his way to mention it a couple times. So they are are least talking about it.

I hope when it goes to 12 that P5 conference champs are automatic. Sure, you'll end up with some 2-3 loss champs that win the conference in an upset, but that makes things interesting when there are 12 spots. Having a guaranteed path based on results would be nice and then the rest of the spots can continue with the magic 8 ball committee BS.