AI response, founding fathers failed yet again in creating a slow moving body when democracy is in danger.
Based on the correlation between Donald Trump's approval ratings and the 2026 Senate races, here is the expected result.
Methodology
The projection relies on November 2025 polling data referenced in the provided Newsweek and Civiqs reports. The correlation logic is:
Trump Net Approval Positive: Republican Win.
Trump Net Approval Negative ("Underwater"): Democrat Win.
According to the data, President Trump's approval rating is "underwater" (negative) in most of the country, including 12 states he won in 2024 (specifically Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, alongside swing states like North Carolina). He retains positive approval in deep red states.
2026 Senate Race Predictions
There are 35 seats up for election (33 Class 2 seats + 2 Special Elections).
Republican-Held Seats (22 Seats Up)
Alabama (Tuberville): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Alaska (Sullivan): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Arkansas (Cotton): Trump Positive (+14%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Florida (Special - Rubio's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Idaho (Risch): Trump Positive (+23%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Iowa (Ernst): Trump Underwater (Net Negative). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Kansas (Marshall): Trump Positive (Not listed as underwater). Prediction: Republican Hold
Kentucky (McConnell): Trump Positive (+12%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Louisiana (Cassidy): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
Maine (Collins): Trump Underwater (State won by Harris). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Mississippi (Hyde-Smith): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
Montana (Daines): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Nebraska (Sasse/Ricketts): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
North Carolina (Tillis): Trump Underwater (-8%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Ohio (Special - Vance's Seat): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
Oklahoma (Mullin): Trump Positive (+17%). Prediction: Republican Hold
South Carolina (Graham): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
South Dakota (Rounds): Trump Positive (+16%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Tennessee (Hagerty): Trump Positive. Prediction: Republican Hold
Texas (Cornyn): Trump Underwater (-6%). Prediction: Democrat Flip
West Virginia (Capito): Trump Positive (+27%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Wyoming (Lummis): Trump Positive (+34%). Prediction: Republican Hold
Result: Republicans win 15 races; Democrats flip 7 seats (AK, FL, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX).
Democrat-Held Seats (13 Seats Up)
Colorado (Hickenlooper): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
Delaware (Coons): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
Georgia (Ossoff): Trump Underwater (-14%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Illinois (Durbin): Trump Underwater (-29%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Massachusetts (Markey): Trump Underwater (-42%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Michigan (Peters): Trump Underwater (-15%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Minnesota (Smith): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
New Hampshire (Shaheen/Open): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
New Jersey (Booker): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
New Mexico (Luján): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
Oregon (Merkley): Trump Underwater (-36%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Rhode Island (Reed): Trump Underwater (-40%). Prediction: Democrat Hold
Virginia (Warner): Trump Underwater. Prediction: Democrat Hold
Result: Democrats win all 13 defended races.
Final Senate Tally
Seats Not Up for Election (65 Total):
Republicans: 31
Democrats/Independents: 34
2026 Election Results (35 Total):
Republicans: 15 Wins
Democrats: 20 Wins (13 Holds + 7 Flips)
Projected Senate Composition:
Democrats: 34 (Holdovers) + 20 (Wins) = 54
Republicans: 31 (Holdovers) + 15 (Wins) = 46
Outcome: Using the correlation to Trump's polling, the Democrats would regain control of the Senate with a 54-46 majority.