Everything posted by linux
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I mean he is a governor of a deep red state, is he the last? But it could also be explained by nepotism. I mean white, male, young, centrist-conservative, adding Kentucky would be nice Cons looks dumb, son of a governor so who knows how that translates into other states. But here we are he is indeed a leading candidate.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Like always everyone has a flaw and his is that he looks as dumb as a paper bag. But yeah he is naively one of the better candidates left.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shared nude photos of women with his friends and appeared to joke about eating dogs, according to a report Tuesday." I hope the fucker that wanted to vote for him to answer this.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I do think she is number 2, but the order after that is a mess or even if they need to bypass #1
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
As for the polls everything is still up for grabs even those disaster state polls means shit like 40-41 or something? There is still 20% twideling their thumbs, my theory is that they are mostly anti trumpers but currently terrified and sticking to home not vote. and no this has nothing to do with the debate because it has been the same for months. This is why I think Biden has a chance it is easier to calm nerves than change minds. Trump wins only through terror.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Throwing in the towel already? any safeguards ends when he fires them all, don't be so naive, this is the telegramed dictatorship with nuclear weapons. Volunteer if you really care cause it is do or die, even your job is not as valuable.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I mean you hated on democrats (correctly) about "its my turn!", and you honestly don't think that the nominee will not be unpopular? People will hate JUST because they are not his/her candidate, and that is even before we even enter the big tent disaster, the Dem party is a bigger tent than in the 60s
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Fine let me explain, the absolute gist of it is that we all think there is a better candidate than Biden, hell I think I am better than him and people loathe me online. But at the end of the day we need to have some humility there is no perfect candidate there is no one that can come down and win by 15% as some naively think. I blame Biden for so many damn things, but history is so dire for a switch so late, it is the only path and I mean only path I see for a Nixon style blowout aka 100% guaranteed loss. I still think that Biden can fall asleep every single day and we stand a better shot with that than a brokered convention.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Exactly history proves us otherwise, this is exactly what Donald Trump wants, see him being quiet.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
You said it, why are you trolling?
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I have only one rule, no time machines build one please and save us. Otherwise what is the point? I only care moving forward if Biden calls it quits and the result is a disaster I will not be wasting a second arguing hey guys should have listened to me!
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
See the dude that said his friends think Gavin (the closest to an anti biden candidate) is too slimy, this is it folks we are destined to lose because each one of us would rather go high than go low, be right than win.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Nobody knows there are a a significant chunk of democrat voters that are policy wonks, they would say he has not earned it, get angry that they got passed over for promotion and stay home. If anything I am apocalyptic at the people that think it is this easy. It is a trillion dollar industry and we are monday morning quaterbacking.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
It is not scared, it is about the data, people really like to vote for Biden, primaries and elections post Trump prove it, we are looking to cast all of that aside for neoriticsm and unprovable theories. Biden is too old to be president could literally end up being as relevant as Biden is too short to be president, or Biden is too ugly to be president, there is no result out there that has ever proven this, hell voters prefer older candidates more and more and more. What if Democrats had said in 2020 only 60 year on younger can ride this ride? the electorate could have stayed home have any of you considered that a good chunk of it are old people? Biden wins elections, all we have are theories that he will not.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Donald Trump has 40-42% in polls, that is way way way lower than 2020 even his ceiling of 45% is 100% guarantee of failure. He can only win if the 53% anti trump coalition does not vote. That is it that is his only path to victory, not if Biden dies tomorrow, not if he falls asleep every single day, (the latter based on polling) it is the 53% not showing up for the polls and the only scenario I see this happening is in a democrat civil war.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I would still like to see his poll numbers crumble or collapse after the debate to make that decision, with data, we are not seeing that. What I am seeing is people thinking they can get their candidate in. That is what is killing making him lose projections (I am voting for Bernie of staying home!), ironically his polling numbers should be a disaster with how many people think they are right.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Donald Trump has worse polling than when he did in 2020 (I am talking about his points not the delta), meaning that this entire election is close because people are panicking and wishcasting their own perfect candidate that A) does not exist B) will NOT have consensus even if he or she did C) Would be torn back down to earth in no time.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Ironically I am less worried about independents than I am about democrats just crying themselves to sleep and not going to the polls.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
They have, 538 correctly picked every single senate seat in 2020, including the second round needed in Georgia, they have been terrible in the past, but according to people here Biden should have cratered like he is now polling at 20% or something when he has actually gained a margin of error. That is nowhere near reality.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
All the polling data says you are wrong and you still want to be proven right, color me unimpressed.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
I mean the other idiot is borderline 80 as well? your common sense is completely useless because according to you neither Trump nor Biden should be electable but here we are. Again your common sense is useless, it is not matching up with reality, it is like arguing that quantum mechanics have no common sense hence it is fake, it is loser talk.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
There isn't an obvious difference he is not doing that terror face every day, just for 5 minutes in a fucking debate people that has passed and people are not punishing him for. If Biden were doing the terror face daily you guys might have a point but all of you are acting like tapper running that tape again and again and again and again, because you rather be right than win.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
Common sense is the death of reason, its like superstition dressed up in nerd glasses. Gimme data, or give me history not your common sense, the common sense that Donald Trump should have never gotten to this point is why the system was shit and designed to fail.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
This was the exact same argument made in 2020. Biden won't even survive until 2024, much good it did Trump then.
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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
The last sentence is pure wishcasting without any semblance of reality or historical record, one could argue that female presidential candidates have 0% chance based on history. and like a 1% chance based on primary data.