In my own personal experience, federal interference is greatly exaggerated. 95% of the bitching is about wildlife restrictions in Wyoming. Another 5% for terminating leases, but hey, if you violate your lease terms, you’re going to lose the lease. The feds aren’t doing anything a private owner would do.
The BLM in New Mexico are pretty good about turning around sundries. They don’t try to hold us up, but just like any organization of a certain size, if somebody goes on vacation or moves to another group there’s going to be a delay.
Not being able to get drilling permits is some politician made up bullshit. Most companies prepare for these things and have at least 8 years of drilling permits. The Biden Admin could never grant another new APD since January 2021 to today and most of the big boys would be fine.
Offshore is a different matter. Canceling lease sales in the GOM was a pretty big deal for that group. The fed doesn’t grant full refunds on these things. They’re also dealing with the rice whale bullshit. Offshore is a tough regulatory environment.
If Trump eased many of the offshore regulations, I think we would see increased drilling offshore. They’re making money at $25 a barrel. But in $40 oil, nothing is getting drilled onshore. Your best Delaware acreage is probably breaking even at that price point. Big companies would drill to maintain lease. Others will close shop.