immamac

We will unlock this thread as soon as polls close and there are results that start becoming available. There is a separate thread that will also be pinned that will move MUCH slower than this thread and only have official results updates, schedules for ballot drops and critical information for the election such as major decisions or calls from major statistical networks that are reputable (AP, ABC, etc.) We will also pin the Official Surly Horns Electoral Map at the top of this thread and that thread. It will update when there is consensus from 3 or more major sources. It will start unfilled and only reflect the Presidential race.

Take the fucking nap you are going to need it. Chili's is tomorrow not tonight. Can't preemptively celebrate.

WHY CANT WE BE FRIENDS WAR - Why Can't We Be Friends_ (Official Video) [Remastered in 4K].mp3

been storming all morning. nothing burger.

False, but you don't know him like I know him. Also I'm not doing it in a "thems fightin words" style like BO&W. This is where people are at and where the negative sentiment for Quinn lacking confidence and why that is a mental fortitude issue and not necessarily a physical or mental capability issue. It's very obvious that Quinn thinks he's first round material, for anyone anywhere near his orbit this has been made very very clear. We are not fucked without Quinn. This is still a very much in contention for a playoff run if not a NC run without Quinn. That's how little of an impact he's had at lifting the team, the defense is balling the fuck out. This is actually what I've been saying, I just called him a pussy when I was mad about it and making an obviously hyperbole comment and people latched onto me thinking Quinn is the worst player on the team and doesn't deserve to play at Texas. I've clarified it multiple times, because I didn't realize how fucking idiotic some of the posters here are who can't fathom being pissed off at someone who played like shit and without confidence as calling them a pussy. Also, I've talked plenty of shit to Gunnar's face in good humor. I've also given Juan Davis shit etc. These guys are just guys - they love football and they think some of this stuff is funny too. I have also given them direct praise beyond jock sniffing fan, but very serious appreciation for the work they put in and how it shows on the field.

Its a great day to be an American. Go exercise your rights today. I'll see you all at Chilis tomorrow.

Same place as always. First post in thread. Lawn in front of Joe C Thompom conference center.

🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️ There are limitations to how much more Trump can squeeze out of those rural areas without cracking their small urban centers - IE, State College while facing off against high turnout overall. Some data points for this include the WA primary, Selzer, the PA district polls, etc. Concurrently, the suburbs (SEPA and co.) are highly likely to shift left again. They've done so unbrokenly in every cycle since '16 and absent decent racedep, how do you counter additional raw volume from, say, Montgomery? You look to rurals, which I think stay somewhat static. Relatedly, the herculean effort on the part of PA Dems to keep margins in those areas down add up statewide. The ground game comparison is not close. If Trump wins, it's going to be because nothing on an organizational level had an effect - incumbent govt struggles post-COVID. However, we do have data that points to late breakers going hard for Harris as well as her holding up weirdly well with seniors and good margins with women. Subsequently, Trump's ability to surge turnout from his base isn't going to make this thing a blowout, IMO. Fundamentally, nearly everything suggests Harris is favored except for some polling, most of which has been breaking for her in the home stretch. You can't just run scared of assuming that polls miss for Trump again without evaluating the context of why. Many of them have made great strides to not underestimate the GOP - modified LV screens, '20 recall, nuking Philly (lol), etc. to the point where I feel it's more likely they've slightly overcorrected. Way too many ties too before this week. Congressionally, I expect Casey to outrun Harris by a point or two while McCormick underruns Trump by a similar amount, partially due to there being multiple right-wing 3rd parties on the ballot, hence the delta. And it's Bob Casey. I'd be surprised if he loses. For House races, I think Wild in PA-07 and Deluzio in -17 will be fine. Fitzpatrick survives and Cartwright in -08 probably has enough juice to pull it off again, but we'll see. Perry likely barely survives, but if Harris wins and by more than expected, he'll have a problem. The row offices are more contingent on how the top of the ticket does. DePasquale for AG is in a good spot while Treasurer and Auditor are contingent on a big enough win margin upward. For state leg, Dems are slightly favored to keep the House, but there are a handful of marginal seats. Still, in an environment expected to be better than '22, it's likelier than not that they can hang on. State Senate leans GOP absent Laughlin in SD-49 crashing and burning. And that's my read on things, as far as tomorrow is concerned. Who knows? I could be horribly wrong about the state of things. Happy to be and probably will be the longer I cover PA elections. But I trust my gut and what I see - it served me well in '22 and '23. And frankly, if I could at least go 1 for 2 for the POTUS/PA SEN races, I'd be ecstatic. I've done the best I can; it's up to the voters and both campaigns now. Wish I may to be a perfect oracle, but I'm not J. Ann Selzer. Get some sleep. Long day tomorrow

Tailgate is always happening

Night crew. Tonight is your final night before the intense work begins. We are counting on you to bring maximum effort.

This is actually equal parts pathetic and scary. To imagine this person doing this as the President of the United States is actually terrifying. Yes. All of them. (45th and Lamar for Austin)

I did it. We want discussion post polls closing there. We will also have a much slower moving updates only from certain posters thread for big news similar to signing day.

My friend told me this yesterday and I was like wtf are you talking about dude. Come to chilis with me on Wednesday.

SEC shorts this week kinda sucked tbh.

this was before Puerto Rico thing.

I want to leave election day thread to be exclusively for results and after they start rolling in. Set it for 5PM central tomorrow because that's when the first votes will start getting released if it happens earlier we will open it accordingly.

Insurrection is a bad idea.

Lmao you obviously don't live here. We got all the extra ads this time around.

I'm telling you that the young vote is out and strong. You keep telling me it isn't and then posting data showing it is. Young people are turning out

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone?

https://www.census.gov/popclock/data_tables.php?component=pyramid

7 year vs 14 year group sizes and still in line with half of the next one? Wtf can no one think critically anymore.

What? There's a huge uptick in 18-29 nearly everywhere.