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TexasEd

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by TexasEd

  1. Something to keep them humble and focused
  2. Sorry to quote myself but this plays into my real job where I manage a large annual survey with thousands of responses. After the first 500 came in I noted the trends in the score over last year but also made a prediction that the scores would change as we got a larger sample size because the first 500 responses were from those most motivated to respond and not entirely typical of the larger population. It played out the way I expected because I know the way this works, but it would have been wrong for me to ignore what the data was telling me at that point in time and only share my prediction.
  3. If that's the case he should give the poll results and then a separate column for predicted outcome. It's dishonest to say "here is the latest poll" and subtract out the bump based on real events that people expect. Should have done it for Trump getting shot at too, should he adjust for RFK dropping out? Where does it stop? Just report the results and then if you want to place a bet on the outcome that is different. Like a line on a sporting event.
  4. Data: 3% growth Sentiment: 3 of 5 people think we're in a recession because Fox and Trump keep telling them we are.
  5. So people expect a bounce and instead of showing the bounce they subtract it back out but don’t really advertise that so it looks like there isn’t a bounce? But then they are contradicted by all the other polls so they just look like hacks.
  6. Just a reminder Bannon is in jail and doesn't like it. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/29/politics/steve-bannon-prison-request/index.html
  7. Got a Colin Allred ad on YouTube today :shockedface:
  8. This is really going to piss off that vet who drove the Eagle Talon between Texas and New Mexico and wouldn't roll down his windows.
  9. This was perfect. Very clear message even to this spanglish speaker. My favorite part was the closing, "Trump habla mentieras y Harris lucha!"
  10. My step brother is a IFA rep from Denver. He is probably there, I should ask him about it.
  11. Workshopping her slogan: Vote for the Fox Could you get Rush at the same time? Might make it so many of us could have normal conversations with our parents again.
  12. Fireworks, lots of fireworks and whiskey drinking has been mentioned.
  13. I hope Trump needs the cash now and instead of JG Wentworth he cashes out on his DJT stock and the price plummets and all people talk about for 2 weeks is Truth Social collapse and that another bankruptcy is looming.
  14. Yes, take percentages off for now and just talk real numbers. Trump’s actual number of voters is not growing. He is not doing anything to add to his total unless it’s motivating racist/misogynists that can’t vote for a melanated woman. Trump is shedding voters who are less motivated and in some cases seeing some of the weirdness open their eyes with a horrible VP choice and continual fuck ups with veterans. He lost some on 1/6/2021, lost more that have died over the last 4 years. Trump’s max this cycle was when Biden was still in the race and he looked like the most capable old guy. The changes in percentages are happening because Harris is changing eligible and registered voters to likely and unmotivated to engaged. In this way Harris-Walz own the outcome of the election and all Trump can do it bitch and whine which is what he is best at. Harris-Walz actions will determine the race based on their ability to maintain momentum and avoid pitfalls. The wildcard factor in this race now will be the economy over then next 2 months. I saw data where 3 of 5 people think we are in a recession now. If we have pundits that start saying recession too much it could be like Beetlegeuse and manifest in the minds of voters even though we have not had one negative quarter yet, much less two required to be in a recession.
  15. Ain’t no rest for the wicked Money don’t grow on trees
  16. Was this the one on the anniversary of the Tulsa massacre?
  17. Less interesting than reading this thread but this article pretty much sums up everything here: https://www.kens5.com/article/news/local/greg-swindell-daughter-missing-brenna-swindell-houston-astros-ut-austin-baseball-player-latest/269-9ca11340-e9bc-4644-b891-6ca92bd91274
  18. Could have been one of the license plate readers Texas uses to track people driving to Dispensaries in Colorado. Not good and I've been trying to figure out why the name Guidry is familiar. Figured it out that is a friend's wife's maiden name.
  19. Why haven't the fires gone out? They're still pumping oil into the tanks. Seriously, you would think that the pipelines that feed the tanks could have been put in reverse to divert some of the contents other sites but nope.
  20. Are they talking about Thanos? Love this so tempted to send it to my parents
  21. Alex Jones can get behind this
  22. Sounds like it’s targeted squarely at DJT and his inflated assets to get more loans empire.
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