I 100% agree that it is fun to think about. Let's take the 1^24 stars in the universe, and say each has 10 planets. So we now have 1^25 planets. First assumption, what is the probability of life arising? Is it 10%? 1%? 1E-10%? 1E-50%? We do not have a way to make anything more than a complete guess, and each guess will give drastically different answers to how much life is in the universe. This is why I challenge when you and others say it is so unlikely that Earth has the only life in the universe. I am NOT saying it is unlikely, I'm not say we are alone. I am arguing that even saying likely or unlikely is a fallacy.
eddited to add @Brisketexan - as a lawyer, if someone argued in court that because there are 100s of millions of Powerball tickets bought each week that it is impossible to have a week without a winner, would you just let that slide? Or would you argue that we should at least try to estimate the likelihood of getting a winner? You are trying to solve Change of Life = Probability of Life * Number of Planets. We only have one of those values.