bolverk

Yeah, so what happened was they had a shitty update from yesterday. Again, yellow is a 5%-point band (2.5% points on either side) and the statewide EV average. So, turnout for Franklin County has been running ahead of the statewide pace, but locally very few votes were added yesterday for whatever reason, while the statewide tally increased. Screenshot below to help you see it.

It seems like everything is settling in. No change in Kamala's projections from yesterday based on the three methods: 2020 partisanship split: 45.6% Harris; 54.4% Trump + Field My calculated guess of shift: 47.8% Harris; 52.2% Trump + Field Huckleberry's moderation of my guess: 46.6% Harris; 53.4% Trump + Field

Wordle 1,231 3/6 🟩⬛⬛🟩⬛ 🟩⬛🟨🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Connections Puzzle #509 🟨🟨🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟪🟪🟪🟪 🟦🟦🟦🟦 🙂 Daily Quordle 1012 8️⃣4️⃣ 5️⃣9️⃣ m-w.com/games/quordle/ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟨⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩⬜🟩⬜🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

The rural areas jumped to a huge lead in Early Votes and are slowing down in gains, but it looks to me like the suburbs are still peaking.

Dalhart sits directly on the county line (hence the name). The more Anglo and wealthier side of town is in Hartley County (30% Hispanic), while the poorer, more Hispanic part of town is in Dallam County (52% Hispanic). Edit: You can see the same patterns with Amarillo (Potter & Randall Cos.) and Midland/Odessa (Midland & Ector Cos.). This is why Texas desperately needs a Stacey Abrams-type who can credibly lead and organize our vast Hispanic population.

edited to tag @gsoda3 As of yesterday, a little over 7.5 million Texans had voted. If we assume each county has the same partisan tilt today as it did in 2020, Kamala has 45.6% of the vote so far (3,425,767). If we go by my calculated guestimate for each county's evolving partisan shift since 2012, Kamala has 47.8% of the vote (3,591,567). If we go by Huckleberry's alteration that "dampens" the partisan shift, Kamala has 46.6% of the vote (3,501,382). Right now, based on the partisan swing in each county and according to their turnout, Harris likely won't win Texas ranging from 45.6% to 47.8% of the vote. In 2020, Biden won 46.5%. However, her odds are improving as more EV data come in. For example, Huckleberry's formula had Kamala winning 46.3%, while my formula had her with a 47.5% chance yesterday. Below is the revised map of EV turnout. As of yesterday, 40.35% of registered Texans had voted. The overall pattern hasn't changed, but when I looked at the updated figures, it appears like some counties are plateauing and others are catching up. That applies to almost everywhere except amongst the worst laggards, who are falling further behind.

Wordle 1,230 3/6 ⬛⬛⬛⬛🟨 ⬛⬛🟨🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Connections Puzzle #508 🟦🟦🟦🟦 🟪🟪🟨🟪 🟪🟪🟨🟪 🟪🟪🟪🟪 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨🟨🟨🟨 🙂 Daily Quordle 1011 6️⃣8️⃣ 7️⃣4️⃣ m-w.com/games/quordle/ ⬜🟨⬜🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨🟩⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 🟩⬜🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ 🟨🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜🟩🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟨⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛

I once asked my deaf-since-birth daughter about the inner monologue thing, whether she could "hear" a voice in her head. She was pretty emphatic that she could but couldn't explain it at all. She also said that both she and others in her dreams "speak" normally. It's a really curious deal because ASL is her primary language. I was wondering if she "saw" hands signing in her head instead, but nope. She hears the inner monologue.

That's one of my top five of her, mostly because you can hear her say it.

"Women are like children; they just don't know what's good for them."

When contacted about our collective infatuation:

I don't know if this is the right thread, but: Texas General Land Office purchases massive West Texas ranch near Big Bend National Park The Texas General Land Office has purchased a more than 353,000 acre private ranch (550 square miles) in West Texas’ sprawling Big Bend region that had been listed for sale at more than $245.6 million.

Wrong thread

Recall the videos of him dragging his left leg? Well, he couldn't use it to step up into the cab.

Oh, look, a Dump Trump.

This thread in real-time.

My queen!

He's a golldang booze hound, is what he is!

The spreadsheet also has county results for 2012 and 2016, for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, it doesn't consider at all which way the Early Voters might swing, but like you said, I don't know how you'd calculate that in Texas. That said, 36% of registered Texas voters were already in the bad as of yesterday, but I haven't looked at EV turnouts at the local level in past elections.

Just shared a link to a copy of my spreadsheet in your DMs if you want to play with the numbers.