bolverk

Whatever the outcome is on Tuesday, I'll be in no shape on Wednesday to drive 45 minutes over to Midland for Chili's. Is anybody else out here in the wastelands willing to give me a ride?

"Chewbacca defense" as political discourse.

Here's that fantastic cold open with Kamala. The guy who does Trump nailed his impression of that speech.

Wordle 1,233 3/6 ⬛🟩🟩⬛🟩 🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Connections Puzzle #511 🟨🟨🟨🟨 🟦🟦🟦🟦 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟪🟪🟪🟪 🙂 Daily Quordle 1014 6️⃣4️⃣ 5️⃣7️⃣ m-w.com/games/quordle/ ⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨 ⬜🟨🟩⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟩🟨⬜🟨 ⬜⬜🟩🟨⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

It breaks my heart that Lobo didn't get to see that cold open.

That cold open was incredible!

That poll got Aubrey all pumped up.

This October’s heat ‘blows away’ the previous record set 77 years ago There was a moment, sometime in July, when it looked like Austin would get off easy for a change. Unseasonably heavy rains into the summer kept temperatures below the expected summer scorch. Even area reservoirs were recovering. Maybe this year, people thought, we’d escape the brutal heat that has characterized recent years. Then came the fall. September was one of Austin's driest and hottest in 126 years of record keeping. October was even worse. By midday on Halloween, it appeared that Austin’s daily high temperatures for October would average out to 91.6 degrees. “This blows away the previous record high of 88.4F set in 1947,” Victor Murphy, a Climate Services program manager, at the National Weather Service, wrote to KUT. October nights did cool off a bit, thanks to low humidity brought by a near complete absence of rain. But those nights, on average, were still much warmer than usual. They were the fifth warmest lows on record to be exact. Put those average highs and lows together, and we just lived through the warmest October ever recorded. With a mean temperature of around 78.2, Murphy said, this October was 6.4 degrees warmer than normal, and exceeded the previous record of 77 degrees Fahrenheit set in 1931 by 1.2 degrees. In fact, this October was so hot that, looking back at the historical data, a quarter of all Septembers in Austin have been cooler than this recent October. The high temperatures are in keeping with long term trends, brought by the burning of fossil fuels, that will continue to make Texas hotter and hotter, according to the Office of the State Climatologist. While some rain is forecast for the area over the next several days. The longer-term outlook is less promising, with a weak La Niña climate pattern making a drier and warmer winter more likely in Texas.

According to the SoS's website, 47.32% of registered Texans have voted. This is going to be slightly off because they fucked up the reporting in Brazoria and Taylor (Abilene) counties, where they had turnout at 6.97% (previously 50.10) for Brazoria and 1.60% (previously 38.75%) for Taylor. I went ahead and assumed they forgot to type in the first digit, so I gave 56.97% to Brazoria and 41.60% to Taylor. That said, my spreadsheet now shows Kamala with 48.1% of the early vote in Texas and 51.9% for Trump plus the rest of the field. Using Huckleberry's modified formula, she's at 46.6%. If the voting patterns from 2020 at the county level did not change, Kamala would have 46.7%. Averaging those out puts her at 47.1%, which would be a 0.6% improvement over Biden's 2020 results (46.5%). One notable development is that all of the Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, and Travis) were at or above the statewide early voting pace for the first time this week. Yesterday must have been a busy day at the polls in the big cities. I obviously have no special incite over which partisans have a better turnout in Texas during early voting, so there's really no way of telling. But, solely because of "vibes," I'll go out on a limb and predict Kamala will take home about 48% of the Texas final count, which would be a modest 1.6% point improvement over Biden. Early Voting Turnout by County with my assumed Brazoria and Taylor County inputs (if they update these by Monday, I'll recreate the map and calculations):

Roland Gutierrez was probably the smarter play if Texas Dems wanted to retain the Valley. He has the fire. Allred got my vote, but I've got to think that he would've been more effective in getting the vote from down there, but I'm riding with Allred.

Wordle 1,232 5/6 🟩⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩⬛🟩⬛⬛ 🟩⬛🟩⬛⬛ 🟩🟨🟩🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Connections Puzzle #510 🟨🟨🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩 🟨🟨🟨🟨 🟪🟪🟪🟪 🟦🟦🟦🟦 Argh!!! 🙂 Daily Quordle 1013 8️⃣5️⃣ 🟥4️⃣ m-w.com/games/quordle/ 🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬜⬜⬜🟩⬜ ⬜🟩🟩⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩🟨⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜🟨⬜🟩 🟨🟨⬜⬜🟨 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜⬜🟨⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ 🟩🟩⬜🟩🟩 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛

*Gauloises

At risk of the meme already being played out: (I love you, Aubrey!)

I tend to agree that Clinton-era Dems (especially the Boomers who hitched their wagon to him), but the New, New Democrats of the past decade are absolutely done with that shit. My first presidential vote was for Clinton in 1992, but I abandoned the guy in 1996 as a protest vote after his criminal justice and welfare "reforms" to accommodate GOPs in Gingrich's Congress and voted Green instead, knowing full well that my Texas vote wouldn't make a difference. Hell, I even foolishly did the same and voted Nader instead of Gore for the same protest reasons in 2000, again, because Texas. Obama talked a good game, and I honestly believe he could've enacted more progressive policies if not for the Clinton era Dems and the complete obstruction by McConnell and company. The guy's heart was in the right place, but I do feel like he did what he could in that environment with Boomer Dems like fucking Lieberman as obstacles. But, right now, it's a new party with almost all of the energy and ideas coming from the more progressive wing. And, because of that, I feel more at home and feel more positive about the party than I have at most any point in the past 30-odd years of being a voting citizen.

That really is the essence of her message, "Hey, I'm a hustler, too, but that Trump guy is a bad dude."

Listen to this woman. Her money shot: Do we really trust this man with our economy? Our economy! A man who cares only about making himself rich, and tax cuts for his billionaire friends. I don't even get a tax cut. Today is your wallet. Tomorrow, he'll be conning you out of your healthcare rights. And that's a fact. I want you to hear that again. Today, he's hustling you with a "Oh, buy my sneakers." Tomorrow, it's going to be your healthcare rights. He's going to take it away from you. He's gonna snatch it. Donald Trump talks about how he has a concept of a plan, but, America, the only concept of a plan he has is a plan to hustle you." She's certainly not a policy analyst or a polished political speaker, but that woman gets it. I hope her fans are listening.

I realize this isn't how it works and shit. But, if we take that poll as credible and spot-on (big reach), and if Texas were experiencing a similar swing (unlikely, demographics and all that jazz), this is the implied result for us: Stop laughing. This is my dose of copium for the night.

The first episode was good, but a word of advice: Watch a thorough recap before diving ahead. The short one they offer is way too limited to jump head first into all the moving parts that are still spinning since the last episode of the first season.

Oops.

Clip that fucking thumbnail! Jesus.