Fud

Something to watch for Tuesday is whether or not Duke is ranked. If they are, then it's something that they could potentially point to with SMU

Brugler hopped on Mays's podcast - this will be the most polarizing draft class that he's worked, which spans the past 15 years, and that starts with the QBs. Travis Hunter is the best prospect, but even with him there's disagreement on where to play him. "After him, one team's #2 player will be another team's #12". The first 14 or 15 players are all over the place compared to other years. Other than Travis Hunter, it's tough to nail down players' floor right now within the top fifteen, which typically it's very easy to find areas where players won't fall past. Most of the top players all have warts that keep them from being obvious top five picks. - What are the warts for Walker, Williams, Carter, Graham? Walker isn't asked to pass rush much despite it being what he's best at. Williams is another traits vs production guy similar to Travon Walker. Can Carter be a full time player at the LOS? Graham doesn't have the athletic upside you typically see from a DT taken this high - While Will Campbell is OT1 for many teams, some teams like Will Campbell inside more because of his shorter arms. Comparing to last year's historic OL class, Campbell is close to Tyler Guyton in terms of quality, while Amarius Mims would probably be a top five pick this year had he returned to Georgia. League is split on Banks as a guard vs tackle, Dane doesn't think he's played like a top ten guy this year, more like a mid to late first rounder. Cam Williams isn't quite as freaky as Mims was, but same idea there - In the top fifteen outside of Travis Hunter, who does Brugler like the most? Will Johnson is his #2 player so obviously him, but in the spirit of the question, Brugler really likes Starks and thinks he'll be excellent in the NFL. Thinks he's worth a top ten pick in this class. The point out how Kyle Hamilton and Brian Branch are playing should make teams feel better about drafting Starks higher - RB is the deepest position in the draft, maybe one of the deepest years there ever. They talk about how the market might have over-corrected on being too negative on RBs. Jeanty might be the best football player in the draft after Travis Hunter, but there's no obvious spot for him in the top 20; Dallas could use him, but they have so many other needs. He fits on any team, but there's no obvious landing spot for mock drafts in the top 20. Washington would be interesting - Talking QBs: none of them come close to the top three from last year. They're all inconsistent from week to week, all are riskier with warts, their strengths don't overcome their weaknesses to the level of last year's top three. There are teams in the top ten who will have to draft a QB (Las Vegas, NYG), which means reaches will happen this year. Talks about how first round QB picks aren't really front office picks, but are ownership picks because owners will have their thumbs on the scale, and he talks about how the big stage CFB playoff games can influence QB picks in the first round because owners are more likely to be watching those games, and with the expanded field there's more opportunity for QBs to rise due to this - Cam Ward most likely to be the first QB taken; stats/production is there, traits are there, scouts like his leadership and confidence, very good on-schedule, but turns into a YOLO player off-schedule (double edged sword off-schedule). Has gotten better each year, has never plateaued. Hasn't played a good defense this year. Hoping Miami makes the playoff so he can face a good defense. - Shedeur is tough, poised, and accurate. He's a good QB and can be an NFL starter. But from a top five in the draft perspective, the upside isn't there that you usually want with that type of pick because he has average physical traits, especially for the way he wants to play. Wants to play like Jordan Love but has average physical traits rather than top end. Pocket movements are hit or miss, will have to improve there (a lot of their sacks are QB sacks). Leadership/locker room questions from scouts for when things are going bad on the field. - What pairings make sense in mock drafts in the top ten? Feels like Shedeur is a LV match because of Mark Davis's tendency to chase narrative and flash, and also Shedeur's relationship with Tom Brady. Dallas and Mason Graham (also mentioned Jeanty, but then point out how deep the RB draft is). New England and Tet McMillan (although they talk about NE signing Tee Higgins and then drafting an OL instead).

I'm not sure if Quinn can read a defense in pure 3-5 drop-back other than throwing the shortest/quickest route. He's extremely inaccurate deep unless he knows exactly where he's going with the ball before the snap and it doesn't change post-snap because his footwork is a mess. He can't stay healthy. He has terrible pocket presence. All of these things would individually disqualify my taking him in the first round, and combined would take him out of the first three. I'd consider mid rounds (4-5) if I have a McShanahan guy, because that tree has shown they can joy-stick a QB into early success. He's got a good arm, but it wouldn't be in the top half of the league's starters. His athleticism would probably be bottom third among starters. The one thing he does at a high level is layer passes. Hopefully some of this changes in the coming weeks Beck at least has size/athleticism and will hang in the pocket. He's got some Sam Darnold yolo retard to his game, and there's value in hanging in the pocket and making NFL throws. I'd consider him as a backup with early starter upside in the 2nd/3rd round if I have a current starter but don't view that starter as a long term answer, and Beck could potentially be a cheap starter for you in the back end of his rookie contract after the current guy phases out Ward is the most talented QB in this draft, but he's basically young Jameis but worse at reading defenses. How valuable is that? He's the one guy who physically actually looks like an NFL starter you'd see in the playoffs, but he'll regularly throw back breaking INTs. I'd need an offensive head coach in place who pounds the table for him, and it would have to be after the very best guys in the draft are off the board Shedeur is accurate, can read a defense, and will hang in the pocket. He's small though, and his tools are mostly that of an average NFL starter. If you think you can avoid or mitigate the circus, he's someone you can draft as having a good chance of at least being an average starter, but the upside is limited given how good the top seven or eight guys in the league are right now. Ignoring locker room and circus stuff, to me he's a bit of a middle class man's Stroud The Milroe comp is a faster Jalen Hurts. Hurts still can't throw over the middle and struggles with a lot of the passing game that isn't throwing deep, throwing short, or throwing RPOs. I think you better be drafting him into an ideal situation the things he's good at need to be enough to win, because if you're asking him to do any sort of traditional drop back stuff, it's not going to be pretty Maybe someone shows more over this last month and a half, but none of these guys are someone I'd want to take at the top of the draft as a building block franchise QB who I'd eventually plan on giving a top of the market second contract to. Draft a different position and kick that can down the road for another year. However some of them are interesting in the first round or early second if you already have a good team in place and need a cheap starter, and some of them are interesting upside plays outside of the third round

This team seems to suffer a lot of friendly fire defensive injuries

If you were planning a bachelor party and are looking at a half day of distillery visiting from Louisville, what spots would you hit up? This group is light on bourbon snobs and heavy on just wanting to get drunk and have fun

If he signs off on focusing on CB, I think he's worth a top ten pick. If he's stuck on wanting to play both ways, then pass. If he wants to focus on WR, I'd probably look at him later in the first round. He's a freaky athlete with excellent cornerback instincts and skills. He gets beat from time to time, but he also frequently makes game changing plays

It's Matt Miller, but.. 1) Trade- NYG- Shedeur Sanders 2) Cleveland- Travis Hunter 3) Trade- Jacksonville- Kelvin Banks Jr 4) Las Vegas- Cam Ward 5) Tennessee- Luther Burden III 6) New England- Will Johnson 7) NYJ- Abdul Carter '8) Carolina- Tetairoa McMillan 9) Dallas- Mason Graham 10) Cincinnati- Mykel Williams 11) New Orleans- Jalon Walker 12) Chicago- Derrick Harmon 13) Miami- Shemar Stewart 14) Tampa Bay- James Pearce Jr 15) Indianapolis- Malaki Starks 16) San Francisco- Cam Williams 17) Seattle- Will Campbell 18) LAR- Carson Beck 19) Denver- Aireontae Ersery 20) Atlanta- Nic Scourton 21) Arizona- Isaiah Bond 22) Washington- Benjamin Morrison 23) Houston- Ashton Jeanty (lol) 24) Baltimore- Shavon Revel Jr 25) LAC- Colston Loveland 26) Green Bay- Jahdae Barron 27) Philadelphia- Barrett Carter 28) Pittsburgh- Jalen Milroe 29) Minnesota- Walter Nolen 30) Buffalo- Tyleik Williams 31) Detroit- Jonah Savaiinaea 32) Kansas City- Josh Simmons I'm guessing second around, maybe third

Really hoping that we can see this defense fully healthy (or not suspended). I don't think we've seen WAJ, Autry, Fatusaki, Lassiter, Edwards Jr, etc all on the field together healthy at once. Harris too, although he's missed so much time that I'm not sure if he'll actually be better than what we currently have. I think the sell in the playoffs is the elite defense at this point. One that has a bunch of ballhawks. Stingley Jr will give up receptions here or there, but any time you target him it's an INT risk. Lassiter has 3 INTs. Bullock has 4 INTs. The offense is a work in progress, but hopefully the re-shuffled OL gets better over the rest of the season. If the defense is playing at an elite level, the threshold for the offense to meet is lower, and it might only need to be a top 10 offense to make noise in the playoffs, especially if Nico and Mixon are both healthy

Florida probably had buyout money ready heading into the season, and they’re probably able to tap into at least some of that for NIL

My buddy lived downtown Cincinnati while playing for the Bengals, and he was pleasantly surprised by it

Weird discrepancy I just came across Kentucky's defensive EPA ranking: 14 Kentucky's defensive efficiency ranking per ESPN's FPI model: 45

His "next twenty" by position Drew Allar- QB- Penn State Quinn Ewers- QB- Texas TreVeyon Henderson- RB- Ohio State Quinshon Judkins- RB- Ohio State Tre Harris- WR- Ole Miss Elijah Arroyo- TE- Miami Harold Fannin Jr- TE- Bowling Green Charles Grant- OT- William and Mary Marcus Mbow- OT/G- Purdue Parker Brailsford- C- Alabama Donovan Ezieruaku- Edge- Boston College Princely Umanmielen- Edge- Ole Miss Jordan Burch- Edge- Oregon LT Overton- DT- Alabama Shemar Turner- DT- Texas A&M TJ Sanders- DT- South Carolina Danny Stutsman- LB- Oklahoma Harold Perkins- LB- LSU He also mentioned on the pod that he likes Alfred Collins

No Braxton

Nate Tice went on a rant about Stroud.. paraphrased- "He can lead his team on a drive with no run game where he makes five hero ball throws with pressure all around him and then end the drive with a bad throw while half the time he's getting hit and the fans/media will ask "what's wrong with CJ Stroud? has he regressed?""

I was wondering about this play after the broadcast didn't show a replay (they had a habit of not showing replays on major plays and penalties). Turns out Stroud just missed

I'm surprised by the Deone Walker fall. When I watched him early in the season he was a 6'6 athletic monster who they moved up and down the line to create matchup advantages, and he looked like a Chris Jones starter kit. I guess the tape has just been bad?

Some Arkansas statistical rankings in the FBS (lower is worse) #118 opponent yards per passing attempt #110 in penalty yards per game #107 opponent completion percentage #98 in field position #97 red zone scoring percentage #93 turnover margin per game This team loses at the margins and at defending the pass ** What are they good at? #39 on offensive 3rd down conversion rates, #7 in offensive rushing success rate, #13 in passing offensive success rate, and #38 in defensive yards per rushing attempt. So they move the ball really well on offense, and are solid against the run on defense, although they struggle to score once they get into the red zone

Brugler's updated top 50. No Ewers, no Beck. 1) Travis Hunter- CB- Colorado 2) Will Johnson- CB- Michigan 3) Abdul Carter- Edge- Penn State 4) Malaki Starks- S- Georgia 5) Tetairoa McMillan- WR- Arizona 6) Ashton Jeanty- RB- Boise State 7) Jalon Walker- LB- Georgia '8) Mykel Williams- Edge- Georgia 9) Mason Graham- DT- Michigan 10) Luther Burden III- WR- Missouri 11) Will Campbell- OT- LSU 12) James Pearce Jr- Edge- Tennessee 13) Colston Loveland- TE- Michigan 14) Derrick Harmon- DT- Oregon 15) Shemar Stewart- Edge- Texas A&M 16) Cam Ward- QB- Miami 17) Nic Scourton- Edge- Texas A&M 18) Kelvin Banks Jr- OT- Texas 19) Tyleik Williams- DT- Ohio State 20) Walter Nolen- DT- Ole Miss 21) Shavon Revel Jr- CB- East Carolina 22) Jalen Milroe- QB- Alabama 23) Shedeur Sanders- QB- Colorado 24) JT Tuimoloau- Edge- Ohio State 25) Kenneth Grant- DT- Michigan 26) Tyler Warren- TE- Penn State 27) Cameron Williams- OT- Texas 28) Eric Ayomanor- WR- Stanford 29) Josh Simmons- OT- Ohio State 30) Garrett Nussmeier- QB- LSU 31) Landon Jackson- Edge- Arkansas 32) Jonah Savaiinaea- IOL- Arizona 33) Josh Conerly Jr- OT- Oregon 34) Deone Walker- DT- Kentucky 35) Emeka Egbuka- WR- Ohio State 36) Evan Stewart- WR- Oregon 37) Mike Green- Edge- Marshall 38) Maxwell Hairston- CB- Kentucky 39) Kaleb Johnson- RB- Iowa 40) Omarion Hampton- RB- North Carolina 41) Nick Emmanwori- S- South Carolina 42) Wyatt Milum- IOL- West Virginia 43) Jack Swayer- Edge- Ohio State 44) Tyler Booker- IOL- Alabama 45) Isaiah Bond- WR- Texas 46) Aireontae Ersery- OT- Minnesota 47) Grey Zabel- IOL- North Dakota State 48) Kyle Kennard- Edge- South Carolina 49) Mason Taylor- TE- LSU 50) Jihaad Campbell- LB- Alabama https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5910260/2024/11/12/nfl-draft-2025-prospect-rankings-dane-brugler/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twhq&source=twitterhq

Spread dropped to -13.5, which I'm guessing is due to Green practicing this morning It don't make a shit tho

This is what I was looking for, thanks

What are their boards saying about Taylen Green?

Houston should win three in a row (Dak-less Dallas, Tennessee, Trevor-less Jacksonville) going into the bye week, where they can then hit the reset button and heal up for the stretch run

They lost by a field goal. That's not getting your face kicked in by any metric I'm aware of They've looked like an average team for most of the season, even in wins. They demonstrated in this game that they can actually play at a higher level. With the division essentially locked up, that's what matters