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Fud

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Everything posted by Fud

  1. Fud
    When's that game?
  2. Fud
    The ones I've listened to (including the two I posted above, and also SZD) think that while Kansas is good and interesting, Texas is just too good
  3. Fud
    I enjoy their previews, although they got two details wrong (offhandedly called it a night game, and called Byron Murphy a DE) 1:13:20 mark https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/college-football-week-5-picks-and-predictions/id927810876?i=1000629413473 40:53 mark https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/qb-injury-news-at-texas-a-m-matchups-to-watch-in/id1257913963?i=1000629414679
  4. Fud
    Rattler has been good this year behind a terrible OL and not much help at WR
  5. Fud
    The A&M thread on IT is full of posters who believe Johnson is better than Weigman
  6. Fud
    He's a solid athlete for a QB. I wouldn't call him a statue
  7. Fud

    tOSU at ND

    Fud replied to smwhorn's topic in Football

  8. Fud
    Yes and yes
  9. Fud
    I never said they didn't. I was pointing out that both the predictive models and the efficiency metrics are useful, but have different uses
  10. Fud
    No, the FPI column is a power ranking https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
  11. Fud
    I don't view SP+ or FEI as meaningfully better than FPI. They all back-test similarly ATS. Some in the market actually view FPI as the best of the bunch The efficiency metrics are more useful than SP+/FEI/FPI for looking to see how well teams have actually played this current year, since the others use data from previous seasons along with roster talent (recruiting rankings and transfers), while the the SP+ types are more useful as power rankings for gambling/predicting a score There might not be any teams that are as dominant as those from most previous seasons, and there might be a large cluster of teams a tier down from that. If that's the case, then it's unlikely that there's a consensus order after four games among the public models that don't adjust from team to team
  12. Fud
    Georgia and Meat Chicken sleep walking through their easy early season schedules, OU needlessly running up the score against a couple of shit teams, and Texas underperforming against two G5s has made the models wonky at this point. I imagine there's a larger than normal difference between sharp/book power rankings and those from public models that can't/don't make bespoke adjustments
  13. Fud
    I haven't been following this cycle closely. Why wasn't USC a threat for Baker?
  14. Fud
    A week to week QBR rankings of the Big XII and QBs on our schedule
  15. Fud
    Quinn's games at Texas ranked by ESPN's QBR metric, an EPA based metric that I think is useful 2023 Baylor 96.2 2022 Bama 95.9 2022 OU 93.2 2023 Bama 91.9 2022 KSU 85.9 2022 ISU 81.8 2022 ULM 71.8 2022 WASH 68.9 2023 WYO 62.6 2022 KU 59.0 2023 RICE 53.3 2022 BAY 46.2 2022 OKST 40.6 2022 TCU 18.5
  16. Fud
    I think FEI is similar to SP+ where it includes previous season's data and recruiting rankings+transfers, so that won't necessarily be completely indicative of how they played this year It's more useful for gambling/power ranking, less useful for detailing exactly what's happened on the field so far in this specific season
  17. Fud
    And I agree that the Texas offense should do well against the Kansas defense I'm just pointing out that so far this year, Kansas's defense has arguably been better than Rice's and much better than Baylor's
  18. Fud
    That metric is opponent adjusted
  19. Fud
    Their defense has actually been better than both Rice and Baylor this year, although obviously not good https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/view/efficiencies/sort/efficiencies.defefficiencyrank/dir/asc
  20. Fud
    The Texas offense should be able to cut through KU's defense like a hot chainsaw through butter. It mostly needs to avoid shooting itself in the foot
  21. Fud
    No. He's not quite the runner Milroe is, but he's really good at moving the chains, both with his legs and arm
  22. Fud
    The line moved to -17 at most spots Normally that means an injury(s) news, or betting groups/syndicates all dropped major bets at once across the board after some wager max limits got raised
  23. Fud
    Is Fatheree back yet?
  24. Fud
    So what are they saying about Gilbert? Out for the year?
  25. Fud
    FEI uses prior seasons' data and recruiting rankings similar to SP+ and FPI, right?

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