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NAVY

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by NAVY

  1. 1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

    Just to add to that a bit as it applies to this situation.  At the beginning of all this, if I remember correctly it was only the DIA the predicted that the Ukrainians would offer fierce resistance to an invasion.  14 out 15 other intel agencies all predicted a quick fall Kyiv or worse.  So how did everyone get this so wrong?  In my opinion, its over reliance on analytics.  Sure, you can quantify how many tanks somehow has, the number of troops, artillery, etc.  What you can't quantify is the human abstract.  Analytics told our intel people that there was no chance for the Ukrainians, so don't send heavier weapons, etc.   What analytics can't figure is a quantity for poor Russian leadership, the Ukrainian will for freedom and their desire to fight for it.  

    Analytics has its place, and it is valuable, but over reliance on it is dangerous, short sighted, and ultimately wrong.  This is the conundrum for all strategic planners globally (and not just war), it's valuable insight, but to what level?

    Analytics sucks at predicting the future. Analysts review historical and current data and draw a conclusion about what might happen next. 

    I tell my students this all the time: If your analytical model does not perform well in the real world, you haven’t included some really important variables PLUS you may not even know what those variables are. 

    My point is that analytics and machine learning are tools. The raw material they need is data. Excluding important variables because they were unobservable, too hard to collect or because their importance was unknown will lead to poor predictive/forecasting results with those tools. 

    Analysts have a much better view of what was previously unobservable and I bet the probability of their latest conclusions coming to fruition is increasing over time. 

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  2. 5 hours ago, Underdog said:

    They should tell Trump he'll get his invite in two weeks. 

    Since it’s difficult to prosecute a president, I’d like to see the executive branch police their own. Bush II, Clinton and Obama put a fierce beat down on the orange turd. 
     

     

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