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Irieguy

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Everything posted by Irieguy

  1. Irieguy
  2. Irieguy
    What I’m saying is that sports books executives at major books are like hedge fund managers and have leeway to take risk. They don’t always take risk but they pay a lot of money for information and will take “smart” risks. In the link you posted their “smart” risks didn’t work. But most times it will. They can also play it safe and try to balance 50/50 of course. But they don’t have to and often don’t.
  3. Irieguy
    One other point, people who think major Vegas casinos balance bets are of an outdated mindset before mobile betting was popular. Mobile betting has increased the amounts of parlays. Parlays and other exotic bets make it nearly impossible to have the same “exposure” to two teams in one game. Think of all the crazy 10 team parlays people make. How do you balance all those team exposures?
  4. Irieguy
    For Rocco your local bookie, he wants to basically balance the action to ensure he doesn’t go broke. If he has the same amount on both teams, he wins no matter what. For major Las Vegas sports books they pay big money to analytical teams provide the best lines. Big Vegas books have a secondary goal of balancing the bets but they trust their analytics and are happy to have an unbalanced game. In that situation the sports book has a slight rooting interest.
  5. Irieguy
    Ummm … thanks? 😂
  6. Irieguy
    I’ll believe South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who said exactly, “”I like to have some balance, but it’s not my primary goal,” Andrews said. I’ll just assume that your friend gave you an oversimplified explanation. Or something got lost in translation. @TexArcher
  7. Irieguy
    You can say what casinos want or I can quote actual casino sports books executives. The sports books often are so confident in their line that they don’t mind more money coming in. So even as the money comes in they don’t move the line. From Chris Andrews sports book expert, ““When it’s the latter, it’s because the book has decided to ‘take a position’ on a game based on what it thinks will happen. The book is still getting its -110 juice, but it’s also gambling a bit.”
  8. Irieguy
    You are absolutely wrong. Vegas is not overly concerned with having balanced lines. Your local bookie is because he runs the risk of going broke. Big Vegas casinos are happy to have the majority of action on one side because they trust their lines. Is it fact or fiction? I asked five longtime Las Vegas bookmakers about the assumption, and they all said it’s essentially fiction. https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/fact-or-fiction-do-sportsbooks-balance-bets-to-lock-in-profit-2538940/amp/ @TexArcher
  9. Irieguy
    I was a concern horn for most of the game. @Captainant
  10. Irieguy
    Nothing was missed. You might be having a stroke. @El Compadre
  11. Irieguy
    Nice!
  12. Irieguy
    He’s providing a hypothetical that invalidates your point. But that’s not necessary. Only two words are needed: Trey Lance.
  13. Irieguy
    Oh Trey Lance also. 20 when drafted 3rd overall and 16 career starts. The NFL isn’t afraid of inexperience or age if you are insanely talented.
  14. Irieguy
    Wrong. Josh Allen meets those criteria. He turned out ok. 🤷🏻‍♂️
  15. Irieguy
    The article actually is eye-opening. The computer likes the veteran core that Utah has now. The Jazz might fuck around and win a couple too many games before Markannan, Clarkson, etc are shut down for injury or traded. They have mismatched pieces and will throw out some intentionally bad lineups but they have players.
  16. Irieguy
    Now we are quoting a projection that has the Jazz finishing 10th in the West.
  17. Irieguy
    It’s about time that we got a Gus Asel update!!!
  18. Irieguy
    Which play in teams from last year are candidates for the bottom 3?
  19. Irieguy
    Yea? I’m not seeing anybody naming three worse teams.
  20. Irieguy
    I’m making a longer post to answer future freak outs. For the odds of the first four picks it doesn’t matter if Utah(or any team) has a worse record than the Spurs. It doesn’t matter if TWO teams have a worse record than the Spurs. Bottom 3 is the only goal.
  21. Irieguy
    The worst 3 teams have the EXACT same odds for picks 1-4. Only difference is odds for picks 5-7. Spurs are fine.
  22. Irieguy
    Worst 3 teams actually have the same odds. Team 1 > 14.0% Team 2 > 14.0% Team 3 >14.0% Team 4 > 12.5% Team 5 > 10.5% Team 6 > 9.0% Team 7 > 7.5% Team 8 > 4.5% Team 9 > 4.5% Team 10 > 4.5% Team 11 > 1.8% Team 12 > 1.7% Team 13 > 1.0% Team 14 > 0.5%
  23. Irieguy
    14%. 52.1% of a top 4 pick.
  24. Irieguy
    Maybe he slept they coach.
  25. Irieguy
    @52-80 god I admire your commitment to defending an indefensible position.

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