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Posts posted by bullet

  1. 10 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

    I can't see Disney wanting the GOR challenged in court.  The GOR has been a good tool to protect the stability of the media side's inventory slate.  If it gets challenged successfully, then maybe that comes back to bite them in one of their other deals or at some point in the future.

    The best outcome is a mutually acceptable settlement.  If they get that, then the GOR continues to have teeth for other leagues and other deals.  

    And to clarify, those big deals are NOT sports related.  GOR is an entertainment idea transported to sports.

  2. 9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

    Fox was an average of $90 million a year from 2012 to 2024-5, but that got reworked a little when ESPN signed their new deal and the combined amount was this $203 million a year average deal in the article above.

  3. https://www.extrapointsmb.com/big-12-expansion-power-conference-ncaa-college-football/

    Goes over what the Big 12 looked at in expansion.  And tries to address the power conference question--too many variables with playoffs and NCAA restructuring.  But there is this piece:

     

    "...In 2020, 2019 and 2018, the Big 12 posted a higher average Sagarin ranking than the Pac-12, with the four expansion teams, or by themselves (in 2017, the Pac-12's ranking was better). The same trend was true with F+, and I suspect it would be true if you used SP+, or Massey, or any number of opponent and/or pace adjusted metrics.

    Taking Texas and Oklahoma out of the Big 12 unquestionably makes it a worse football conference. But the remaining eight, plus these four new teams, based on the last few seasons, would be a peer to the Pac-12, and honestly, to the not-Clemson ACC. The idea that there is a massive gap is not really supported by recent performance.

    That being said, I think there are two important caveats...."

    Caveats are recruiting at a high level and the Pac 12 schools like USC and UCLA staying down.

    • Like 1
  4. 28 minutes ago, utee94 said:

    The B12 can withhold UT's portion of the 2021/2022 conference distribution payments. That's it.  After that, Texas will be in the SEC, and the SEC will have the money for the distribution.

    Think about it-- ESPN isn't going to NOT give the SEC the additional money for the addition of Texas, and the SEC isn't going to NOT give Texas its appropriate portion of the SEC distribution.  The B12 will not have access to any of UT's conference distribution money beyond the 2021/2022 schoolyear.  They could try and sue ESPN or the SEC for that money, but good luck with that.

    In reality it will never come to any of that, because it's going to be settled long before that.  Just like every other school that's left the B12 or any other conference over the past 12 years.

     

     

    And if it gets nasty, the Big 12 members really don't need to be making enemies.  Both in NCAA, legislatures and for future scheduling, its could be bad for them.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  5. 1 hour ago, 'stache said:

    That makes the most sense. Utah is beautiful so maybe I’ll make a trip to a game, I’ll just drink my coffee and beer before getting near the campus.

    Splitting Florida and Texas makes sense.  And WVU and Cincinnati recruit Florida.  Iowa St. a little also.

  6. 3 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

    I think it makes more sense to expand east rather than west. The west coast doesn't seem to care much about college football and the Big 12 already has WVU. Having said that, if you take BYU, then how do you not take San Diego State? So much potential with SDSU. Big city with no NFL team, gets you California exposure and typically decently solid football and basketball. 

    San Diego is a long way further west.  BYU is actually closer on average, by nearly 200 miles, than UCF is.

  7. 4 hours ago, Not a Sock said:

    Notice how there has been tons of articles with Big12 sources and little 8 ADs and Presidents giving statements, but not a fucking word from anyone inside UT/OU and the SEC.

    I noticed.

    2023 works logistically for a lot of reasons.  Shit rolls downhill and its got to move to the Big 12, AAC and then CUSA/Sun Belt.  But there is no way it is 2025.  And I can't see us waiting until the CBS SEC contract expires in 2024.

    As fast as the Big 12 has moved, however, I think it probably is 2022.

  8. Big 12 still moving forward.   Not acknowledging earlier departure.
     
     
     
    YTz0-AxN_normal.jpg
     
    The tentative projection remains that the four teams come in for the 2023 season. That means two more Big 12 seasons at 10 teams and two at 14 before OU/UT planned departure after '24 . The league could still consider another round of expansion prior to the new television deal.
     
     
     
     
     
    YTz0-AxN_normal.jpg
     
    Applications are expected to come in within the next 48 hours. A formal vote is being planned for later this week, likely on Friday. All systems still appear on track. “We’re heading toward adding four teams in the next short period of time.”
     
     
     
    YTz0-AxN_normal.jpg
     
    Sources: Big 12 presidents held a meeting on Monday. No votes took place, as it was more an informational meeting to go over the impending applications of UCF, Cincinnati, BYU and Houston to join the league. 1/3
     
     
     
     
  9. On 9/4/2021 at 8:35 PM, Hiphopopotamos said:

    This is a big boy coaching staff.  Had the team ready for the surprise on-side.  Deferred correctly.  Defense never panicked.  Offense worked around OL issues.

    Had a feel like Alabama.  We had better talent and were in control the whole game even though it stayed close until the 4th.  And ULL is a decent team, or at least was last year.

  10. 29 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

    How did Temple get on that list?

     

    They must have hired the guy who snuck BC through the ACC backdoor.

    Basketball was a big factor in those contracts.

     

    Football may be 75% of the P5 contracts, but that's probably not true with the G5.  The Big East with only basketball had a bigger contract than the initial AAC contract.

  11. 1 hour ago, camel at sea said:

    As far as the money, I think the Big 12 probably ends up distributing somewhere in the 20-30M range.  If the AAC distributes $7M per, it means those three new Big 12 additions are probably worth double that number, each.  I also remember reading that the American was offered an additional $5M more, per school, if they would have signed a GOR.  Again, that reflects a lot more individual value for the AAC's breadwinners when they're locked in with a GOR.

    The Big 12 is distributing about $40M per on 10 year old deal.  If the IR8 are worth half, then they're all worth $20M+.  An updated deal *should* reflect an increase in value for those member schools.  

    I've been reading that BYU is valued more highly than every current member of the Big 12 other than Texas and Oklahoma.

     

    I'd guess somewhere in the 20sM per school without a GOR.  30ishM per school if they're willing to sign a GOR.   

    The Big 12 distributed 38.8 in 2017-18 and 37.7 in 2018-19 (no Sugar Bowl).  About $9 million and $5 million (18-19) were CFP/Sugar Bowl money.  Something between $20 and $25 was TV money (Bowlsby was saying $28 million going forward).  The rest was basketball and miscellaneous.  Its that $20 to $25 to $28 million that will be reduced in the short run.

  12. 14 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

     

    Here's an SB national article on the AAC's current payout.  I'm not sure why you'd think the Big 12 would invite the member schools who are "not even close" to being the most valuable in that league.  Jut based on common sense, the only other factors for that "most valuable" moniker are Memphis and Navy.  

    https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/3/19/18273232/aac-television-deal-espn-conference-realignment

     

    In the first AAC deal, UConn, Temple, Cincinnati and Houston were the "Class A" schools, whose departure could end the contract.

    They wrote a similar criteria into the 2nd contract.  Someone mentioned who the first class schools were, but I don't remember other than it was more than just Cincinnati, Temple and Houston and that UConn wasn't included as it was anticipated to leave.

     

  13. 2 hours ago, Shaggybevo said:

     

    UTA recently achieved NRUF classification.  

    UTSA is expected to achieve NRUF classification in 2022.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/19/ut-arlington-tier-one/

     

     

     

    I see they just made it in the latest report.  https://reportcenter.highered.texas.gov/reports/legislative/national-research-university-fund-eligibility-2021/

    "...Texas Tech University and University of Houston data are not included in the report, as both institutions met eligibility in Fiscal Year (FY) 2012 and began receiving distributions from the NRUF. Each institution received $16.3 million for the 2012-13 biennium, $17.9 million for the 2014-15 biennium, and $16.9 million for the 2016-17 biennium. The University of Texas at Dallas data are not included in the report, as the institution met eligibility in FY 2018 and also began receiving distributions from the NRUF. Each of the three institutions received $15.4 million for the 2018-19 biennium and $8.2 million in FY 2020.

    • The University of Texas at Arlington reported restricted research expenditures above the threshold of $45 million in FY 2019 and 2020. In addition, for both fiscal years, the institution fulfilled the following four of six optional criteria required for NRUF eligibility: o Criterion 2: Doctor of Philosophy Degrees Awarded o Criterion 3: Freshman Class of High Academic Achievement o Criterion 4: Institutional Recognition of Research Capabilities and Scholarly Attainment o Criterion 5: High-Quality Faculty. The University of Texas at Arlington fulfilled a sufficient number of required criteria for two consecutive years and is eligible for fund distribution in FY 2021, pending a required audit by the State Auditor’s Office in FY 2021.

    • The University of Texas at El Paso reported restricted research expenditures above the threshold of $45 million in FY 2019 and 2020, which is the mandatory requirement to vii receive distributions from NRUF. For both fiscal years, the institution fulfilled one of the required four optional criteria: o Criterion 4: Institutional Recognition of Research Capabilities and Scholarly Attainment.

    • The University of Texas at San Antonio reached $56 million in restricted research expenditures in FY 2020. In addition, in FY 2020, the institution fulfilled three of the required four optional criteria: o Criterion 3: Freshman Class of High Academic Achievement (fulfilled in FY 2019 and 2020) o Criterion 4: Institutional Recognition of Research Capabilities and Scholarly Attainment (fulfilled in FY 2019 and 2020) o Criterion 5: High-Quality Faculty (fulfilled in FY 2020). The University of Texas at San Antonio seeks to reach the minimum of four required optional criteria by including Criterion 6, High-Quality Graduate Education, which it would fulfill by passing a comprehensive review of five doctoral programs. The institution will also seek to fulfill Criterion 5, High-Quality Faculty, for a second consecutive year by passing a comprehensive review of faculty in five doctoral programs in FY 2021...."

  14. 10 minutes ago, bullet said:

    I think it was written to make it easy for Tech and Houston, but also to get UTD and UTA in.  So Tech + schools in Houston and Dallas.   But politically, they had to include lots of other schools.  It would have been easier if they could have just designated Tech, Houston, UTD and UTA.

    The idea was that Houston needed more than Rice and DFW needed something.  It couldn't just be Austin and an east central Texas cowfield generating research and the related job spinoffs.

  15. 2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

    Incentive is ESPN could up your payouts if you add the Fab four contingent on you letting Texas and ou leave early with a reduced buyout.  160 mil/8 is only 20 million.  Look long term not just in the moment.

    Incentive is to keep the payouts to 2025 while the R8 also get the UT and OU buyouts without having to run the risk of litigation.

  16. 6 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

    You’re probably right I likely just read the headline.

     

    IIRC program was essentially designed to get money to tech and uh so nothing to brag on them for specifically.  I read the report a year or two ago and UTSA was the next closest, so I wouldn’t put them in the same category as UTEP, TX St, or UNT.

    I think it was written to make it easy for Tech and Houston, but also to get UTD and UTA in.  So Tech + schools in Houston and Dallas.   But politically, they had to include lots of other schools.  It would have been easier if they could have just designated Tech, Houston, UTD and UTA.

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