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Everything posted by bullet
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Probably just Big 12 people reading too much in it. ESPN might well be saying they don't think they end up with a deal. Their comment doesn't mean they aren't still trying. Well if its USC or UCLA, they won't be!!! And the question is was that a Washington/Oregon recruit or an Arizona/Colorado recruit? Still, what coaches tell recruits aren't very reliable.
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I wouldn't take Boise. They are the best choice now from the G5, but if they struggle in football they add nothing else. Too much of a long term risk. SDSU is best for the Pac because of Southern California. But Fresno is a better long term bet unless you are just looking at the recruiting angle (which the Pac probably needs to do). Lot stronger fan base. Consistent history.
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By just about any metric. BCS/NY6 bowls. Top 10 finishes. Rankings. And especially TV ratings. SDSU is only 3rd in the MWC behind Boise and Fresno. https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-viewers-did-your-ncaa-team-attract #55 BYU 1.651 million #56 UCF 1.629 #58 Cincinnati 1.557 #61 Houston 1.409 #63 Boise 1.258 Fresno and SDSU didn't have quite enough games to qualify, but they would have been below the 75 teams who did have enough games and quite a few who were also below the 36 game threshold. Fresno 0.697 SDSU 0.522 Note that SDSU's numbers put them behind all the other 8 AAC schools except Tulane. The next 4 up for the Big 12 were Boise, #64 Memphis 1.257, #68 USF 1.103, #73 SMU 0.728.
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You underestimate UH. They're like Miami. When they're good, people watch. Chronicle used to publish local TV ratings in the 2005-2009 range. Texas was way ahead of anyone else. UH was comfortably ahead of aggy, even while being in CUSA. UH has been a big school for a long time. And while those commuter students aren't as fanatic as WVU fans, they still mostly are fans. UH is probably #3 in Houston now but they sure aren't #4. Go to any sporting goods store in Houston. There are 3 big sections-UT, aggy and UH.
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SDSU wasn't in the top 4 left out last time in the Big 12. They are probably #3 in TV value in the MWC. The only way they get in the Big 12 is in the Big 12 picks off 3 Pac schools. They really need the networks to demand 12 in the Pac or they will be window Aztecs. Then they will get in the Pac because of their location.
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Nobody ever pays the full exit fee. 2 years of revenue is absurd and would most times lose in court. These exit fees were written when revenues were 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are now. Big 12 needed to move on, had their new deal and so we paid a small amount. They weren't getting any more with us staying.
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Dabo was afraid of moving. FSU's Barron was an academic snob. Probably learned it on the faculty at UT.
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Wilner thinks UW and Oregon are gone in 2030. So he's sugar coating what they are stuck with for the next 7 years. He seems to hope Stanford and Cal get an invite to the Big 10 also.
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There have been a couple of years where three 3 loss teams were in the top 12. And there have been years when everyone had 2 losses or less and 2 loss teams got left out.
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If you read McMurphy's tweets and articles. In any event, he says he's verified this stuff with several sources. Big 12 people are not sources for what the Big 10 is doing. Warren appeared to be one of his sources, but he is still saying the same thing after Warren decided to leave. And it was pretty easy to verify that UW and Oregon met in Chicago with Big 10 officials. No. Pac 12 tops them all. Bad refs is one thing the Pac clearly leads all other conferences in.
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Its pretty clear McMurphy is getting his info from inside the Big 10. Its Kliavcoff and Canzano, the two most ridiculous sources on the planet, who keep saying this is all coming from the Big 12.
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2 losses do sometimes get beat out by 3 loss teams. In 2018, 2 loss WSU was #13 in the CFP. Florida, LSU and PSU were ahead of them with 3 losses. In 2009 PSU was #13 with 2 losses. Virginia Tech and LSU were ahead with 3 losses. It hasn't happened often, but I think it will happen more often with the USCUCLAOUT moves.
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Its 21 of 130 wildcards. Not sure how you are getting 7%.
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One thing Chip missed in his story. Scott flew into Lawrence after the mess in College Station. KU was the replacement for A&M, not Utah. On Shaggy people were following his plane with flighttracker.
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I mention the "first one out" because that is often a very close call, so it is someone who might have made it.
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When you look at the BCS era in a 6-6 model (of course with past membership, not current), the M3 averages over 2 wildcards a year. Those could come from the P2 instead if they added the right schools. And the first wildcard out fell almost evenly between the 5 power conferences. Washington would have made it twice as a wildcard and been the first one out twice. They also would have made it 3 times as a champ. Oregon would have made it 3 times as a wildcard and 6 times as a champ. I counted 21 times where a 3 loss team was the wildcard, occasionally 3 wildcards had 3 losses. There were, of course, a number of 3 loss champs. And with the supercharged SEC and Big 10, they may more often get the benefit of a doubt with a 3 loss team. But there were 21 3 loss wildcards in the 25 years, averaging about 1 per year. (this was based on the BCS or CFP rankings in those years).
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I think the point was that there wasn't sufficient support at that point in time, not that there was no support. McMurphy has consistently said the Big 10 wants Washington and Oregon and that they are likely to be in by 2031 is not before. Possibly in two yeas. Possibly sooner. Some B10 presidents want to digest their latest additions first.
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Those playoff appearances probably add to the Big 10 and take away from the M3.
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Well Nebraska, A&M and CU all paid about 50% of distributions instead of the 1 year in the contract. Its just that distributions were about $20 million then, not $40 million and the exit fee is 2 years now.
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On the last the "all others" should be 0-0-1-9-6-16-27 There are only 9 times any outside the top 20 have cracked the top 3 in 38 years. TCU has 3 and 6 others have 1. Okie St. is the 1 3rd place finish among "all others."
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The point is that there are only a few schools who are a threat to win an MNC on more than a rare fluke occasion. The P2 has all of them but ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Oregon and Washington (and Colorado who has declined).
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Now here is post OU/UGA vs. NCAA and post BYU fluke championship, 1985-2022. I listed the same 31. Top 20 have all 38 MNCs, 33 of 38 2nd places and 34 of 38 3rd places. 1 2 3 4 5 places points 1 AL 7 3 0 1 3 14 52 2 OSU 2 4 3 4 4 17 47 3 FSU 3 2 5 4 1 15 47 4 Miami 4 4 2 0 1 11 43 5 OU 2 0 5 1 4 12 31 6 FL 3 1 2 1 3 10 30 7 USC 2 1 3 2 0 8 27 8 GA 2 2 1 1 1 7 24 9 Clemson 2 2 1 1 0 6 23 10 LSU 2 2 1 0 1 6 22 11 NE 2 1 2 0 1 6 21 12 ND 1 2 0 2 2 7 19 13 UM 1 1 2 1 2 7 19 14 OR 0 3 1 1 1 6 18 15 PSU 1 1 3 0 0 5 18 16 AU 1 2 0 1 0 4 15 17 TX 1 1 0 1 2 5 13 18 TN 1 0 1 2 1 5 13 19 CO 1 1 1 1 4 11 20 WA 0 1 1 1 1 4 10 21 TCU 0 2 1 0 0 3 11 22 Utah 0 1 0 1 0 2 6 23 Stanford 0 0 1 1 0 2 5 24 Mich St. 0 0 1 0 1 2 4 25 VT 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 26 GT 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 27 AZ St. 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 39 Arkansas 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 39 BYU 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 Pitt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SMU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All others 0-0-0-9-6-16-27
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Those top 20 have 53 of 55 MNCs,. 47 of 55 2nd place finishes and 50 of 55 3rd place. Only TCU and Pitt outside that group have more than 1.
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AP Poll rankings in the modern era (1968-present, 5 pts for 1st, 4 for 2nd, etc.) 1 2 3 4 5 places points 1 AL 9 4 1 3 4 21 74 2 OSU 3 5 3 8 5 24 65 3 OU 4 2 9 1 5 21 62 4 USC 3 5 4 3 0 15 53 5 FSU 3 2 5 4 2 16 48 6 Miami 5 4 2 0 1 12 48 7 NE 4 2 3 2 1 12 42 8 PSU 2 3 4 1 3 13 39 9 ND 3 3 0 2 4 12 35 10 TX 2 2 3 2 3 12 34 11 FL 3 1 3 1 3 11 33 12 GA 3 2 1 3 1 10 33 13 UM 1 1 4 2 3 11 28 14 Clemson 3 2 1 1 0 7 28 15 LSU 2 2 1 0 1 6 22 16 AU 1 2 1 1 1 6 19 17 OR 0 3 1 1 1 6 18 18 TN 1 0 1 3 1 6 15 19 CO 1 0 2 1 1 5 14 20 WA 0 2 1 1 1 5 14 21 TCU 0 2 1 0 0 3 11 22 Pitt 1 1 0 1 0 3 11 23 AZ St. 0 1 0 2 0 3 8 24 Utah 0 1 0 1 0 2 6 25 BYU 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 26 Stanford 0 0 1 1 0 2 5 27 SMU 0 1 0 0 1 2 5 28 Mich St. 0 0 1 0 1 2 4 29 Arkansas 0 0 1 0 1 2 4 30 VT 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 31 GT 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 All others-15 schools 0-0-1-10-10 21 33 Oregon is 17. Washington tied for 19. Then there is a gap to TCU and Pitt.
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That's it. There are actually 6 big dogs left. Clemson, UW and Miami are also.
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