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The Big 12 contract went from about $7 million a year to $20 million a year after the Pac 16 fell apart (jumped from $80 million total for 12 to $200 million for 10). It took a few years for the old deal to expire, but they knew they were getting a huge raise. Pac also got a huge raise to about the same number. Fox immediately told them they were going from $20 million total to $90 million.

Pac 16 fell apart in June 2010. In October they were still talking about Fox being likely to get the LHN for about $3 million a year. The next month ESPN dropped the $15 million offer. It was another year before the startup. LHN just was not as big a deal as the internet makes it out to be. Part of that is aggy. Part was Scott trying to lay the blame somewhere other than just acknowledging he couldn't deliver the value. I watched the Powers, Dodds, Plonsky press conference after they decided not to go. i don't believe they even mentioned the LHN once. If they did go with the Pac 16 plans, there would still be a two school network. UT/aggy or UT/TT. The LHN being blamed for everything is just one of those urban internet legends that just won't go away.

I don't feel too bad about WSU. They don't belong any more than Wake Forest or Rice. They are simply in by legacy. The only schools lower in attendance in the P5 are Vanderbilt, Duke and Wake Forest. For that matter, the only schools lower than Oregon St. are those 4. Cincy and Houston in the AAC were still higher than WSU. UCF was higher than both of them.

The original one blew up before the LHN. It was still going forward with Kansas instead of aggy. But ESPN and Fox promised the Big 12 TV contract would get bigger and be similar to the Pac 16 deal. Fox paid an advance bonus for the last two years of the existing contract. It was then that Texas decided not to do the deal. The money was the same, the schedules weren't much different (they were trying to minimize cross-division matchups), so why move?

I think its more likely they simply weren't interested until they knew what piece of the Big 10 they had.

I've got UVerse.

It could still happen in 2023, but I don't expect it.

2025 is the official date. Nobody official has ever talked publicly about earlier dates. I suspect they wanted 2022, but 2025 is when the GOR goes away.

Dodds has some odd numbers. I recall Bowlsby saying in the legislature that the Big 12 was currently getting upper 20s media money. Dodds claims they will get $44 million in the last year of the contract. I think he may be confusing total distributions. Finance is not his strong suit. "...Those sources valued the annual rights of programs in those conferences anywhere from $21 million to $35 million annually. The Big 12 will make $44 million per school in the final year of its current agreement...." https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-opens-media-rights-negotiations-ahead-of-schedule-early-exit-for-oklahoma-texas-being-considered/

I don't like the idea of streaming either, but that's where things will be before too long. An article a couple weeks ago said streaming had surpassed cable as the way Americans watch TV. Both were around 35%. Over the air was down below 22% (9% was other, whatever "other" is).

It expires next year with the TV contract. No need to move any Pac schools until 2024 when the TV contract is over. That's when USC/UCLA move. As with UT/OU, I don't see ESPN giving up USC and UCLA a year early.

I don't think we go until 2024. That's when ESPN gets the CBS 3:30 SEC contract. There's no a big incentive to give CBS UT and OU for a year.

If you make that claim, you need to prove it. Where are the pictures of the hot imported Cali cheerleaders?!

Its only above average if you consider the G5. Oregon's attendance (2016-2019) is 36th, so its in the lower half of the P5. Just ahead of them? #31-35 are Iowa St., Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., UCLA and Kentucky. Colorado is only a few slots back at #42. Colorado was pretty good in the 60s and 70s. In 1971 they finished #3, behind #1 Nebraska and #2 OU. From 1988-2005 they were pretty good with 6 top 10s, 10 ranked years at the end of the season and ranked at some point all but 2004. They also had their MNC They won the Big 12 N 4 out of the first 10 years. Oregon started rolling in 1999. Their 9 top 10s and 15 ranked years in 23 years is a little better, but not a lot. From 2008-2014 they finished in the top 11 every year, but have slipped since then with only one top 10 and only 3 years ranked.

Oregon has value now. I don't think they are one bad hire from irrelevance, but 10 years like OU had in the 90s or UT in the 10s and Oregon is not much different than Oregon St. or Colorado St. Look at Colorado now. They actually had an MNC. They have a big media market. And they are one of the lower value teams in the Pac 10.

I think they take UW and Stanford. The question is whether they leave room for ND as 20 or ignore them and add Oregon and Cal. From what I'm reading I think they go to 20 with the 4 Pac. Personally, I would stick at 18.

https://www.denverpost.com/2022/08/28/cu-buffs-csu-rams-football-brands/ Interesting read on CU and CSU. "...As to where the Buffs and Rams go from here, Thompson offers two words of advice: “Be patient,” said Thompson, who now heads up the Thompson Sports Group. “(For CU, be) flexible and quick to react if necessary. (For CSU), the Mountain West is a place you can compete and thrive, so embrace it.” So what can Buffs and Rams fans expect from the conference realignment picture in, say, 2030? Get ready for another dose of the unexpected. Thompson said he thinks in eight years the current round of TV deals that have either been recently announced (Big Ten) or are being hammered out (Pac-12) “will have been renegotiated or will be about to be renegotiated, and we will have another round of realignment either right before or (in 2030). “CSU (is likely) still in MW, but it might be called PMC — the PacMtn Conference. CU will be in something that starts with the word ‘Big.’ I’m not sure what the number behind it is.” In other words, buckle up. Because the key to a brighter, more secure football future in Boulder and Fort Collins is more about fixing the present than fixating on the past."

Expansion is about economic value. Otherwise Boise would be in the Big 10. Missouri is one of the bottom 3 or 4 schools in the SEC along with UK, Vandy and South Carolina.

No. Just using 11/13 as an example. FS1 games drew 538k (ASU-UW), 476k (WVU-KSU), and 144k (USU-SJSU) on Saturday. The worst network game (TCU-Okie St.) was 1.37 million. FS1 just isn't going to do that great no matter who is on it.

Because FS1 games draw a fraction of what OTA games draw and significantly less than ESPN, regardless of who is on them.

A Wilner/Swaim tweet hopefully I won't get negged on. Don't remember if this was posted here (Wilner starting to face reality): Jon Wilner @wilnerhotline · 10h The ACC and the Pac-12 have the same destiny (bc they possess schools coveted by the Big Ten and/or SEC). Could be different timelines, or everything crumbles together. Moves by Fox/B1G may result in ESPN deciding the ACC's GoR no longer serves its business model FOLLOWED By: Jon Wilner @wilnerhotline · 5h Prediction: If this prediction is true, Wilner will, in fact, only be covering UNLV home games - all sports - and staying at the Aria (penthouse, comped) Quote Tweet GREG SWAIM @GSwaim · 22h Prediction: @wilnerhotline will be covering the #MWC exclusively in the near future, and will report often how the MWC will be poaching the #SEC and #B1G.

I don't know why anyone would want to read the aggy thread.

They're great fun! Spent most of my recess in 6th grade doing nothing but fancy passes after going to see the Globetrotters. My kids loved them too.

The point is that you can't monetize them. They aren't that valuable on FS1.

That one report said 50% of CF fans follow one of the top 16 programs and 92% follow the P5. Fact is, a lot of the G5 fans are also big fans of P5 schools. I'd bet virtually all the Jax St., UAB and USA fans also follow either Alabama or Auburn. Most of the Louisiana school's fans follow LSU.