Burt Macklin

Ehhh maybe. They're looking very beatable and still have to play at Tennessee and at LSU, plus the Iron Bowl at the end of the season. They could pretty easily end the year with 2-3 losses in conference. Assuming we beat UGA, Bama at LSU and LSU at A&M are the two games that will determine who makes the conference title game. LSU and A&M have 0 losses in conference. A&M has been gifted an unbelievably easy schedule. They don't have to play Bama, UGA, Ole Miss, or Tenn and they get LSU and Texas at home. The toughest road game they play all year will be at South Carolina.

Did you watch the same OU game as the rest of us?

“Gig em Dawgs!” What a bunch of fucking losers.

Gonna pat myself on the back on this one. I thought it was crazy you could get UT +3 at almost even odds in the middle of last week. Now the line has swung 8 points. (Ignore anything I said about Iowa and UW). Looking back at these lines is also pretty interesting. Turns out Vandy is legit, and Bama has critical issues that aren't easily fixed. The lines didn't adjust nearly enough to the Bama-Vandy result for either side. Now that Vandy won and Bama easily could have lost to SCar, I'm assuming the lines will be adjusted for both teams moving forward.

I don't think so. He was always goin to have trouble coming back to that since he was on a vertical route and had to change course entirely. At best it would have been a diving catch. I don't see any way he was going to be able to catch and run on that.

It was a really bad throw. Quinn should have thrown it about 10 yards further and more vertical ahead of Bond. Bond slipped because he was trying to adjust and come back to the poorly thrown ball. If Quinn threw it anywhere close to where it should have been, it was an easy touchdown. Quinn had some pressure in his face, but he absolutely should have been able to make that throw. His throwing motion was weird on that one, so I'm going to optimistically chalk that up to the injury/rust.

OU just gave him a 6 yr, $50 mil extension this summer and OU’s boosters are being hit up hard for NIL funding. I don’t see him getting fired even if they go 5-7 this year. Likely an OC firing and he’ll get at least one more year.

Agree with this. UGA has better athletes on defense, but they’ve looked much worse coached than OU to this point in the season. I was shocked at how poorly prepared they were to account for Milroe, especially when Bama went empty, in the first half. Kirby basically said they weren’t ready for it at half time and then they accounted for the QB and more or less shut Bama down in the second half besides that Williams play. It was a terrible coaching job by Smart that lost them the game. Overall, they have not been disciplined or assignment sound on defense, which is very unusual for Smart. The comparisons of him to Urban Meyer at UF are starting to look accurate. He seems to be losing control of the locker room/culture both on and off the field.

Texas defense is definitely being disrespected, but I do understand it. We haven’t played a single offense worth a shit, and dominating terrible offenses doesn’t mean you can hold up against a good offense. Having said that, I think the defense will have a very good showing against UGA, and then all the doubts/excuses are out the window for the defense and the team as a whole. If we execute like I think we will against UGA, then Texas should be power ranked in its own tier at the top of CFB, with everyone else fighting to be second best. Some talking heads might not realize it until later this season or into the NFL Draft time, but that narrative is already lying cold on the table. Last year’s draft class was littered with guys developed by this staff. Sweat was underwhelming and inconsistent at UT before this staff turned him into the best DL in CFB last year. Jaylan Ford was a 3 star turned into an All-American by PK. Same for Byron Murphy. Christian Jones was another one. Then they follow up that effort last year with guys like Tre Wisner, Gunnar Helm, Jake Majors, Cam Williams, Gbenda, Guilbeau, Broughton, Taffe, Sorrell, and Barron. This team and the 2025 draft class will be littered with 3 and low 4 star guys turned into high level football prospects. And that list was focusing on lower rated recruits. When you add in the 5 stars and elite transfers we’ve developed, like Banks, Hill, Ewers, Bond, and Simmons, there isn’t a single coaching staff in CFB doing a better job developing players than Sark and Co. Yep. If you look at what this staff has done at LB and edge in the last couple years, it’s absolutely miraculous. We’ve been wandering the desert at those spots for over a decade. We could very well have the best LB and edge position groups in the country next year.

It definitely seems like we’re going all out for Pettijohn with his visit this week and then the staff can circle back on the other guys if it’s not happening with Pettijohn. I think the goal number remaining at DT is 2, but I doubt they take a second DT if it’s not one of the guys on their short list. The staff still seems to be going after all of Lee, Brew, and Sanchez at CB. I’m not sure if we take a CB if we miss on those three, unless there’s a late riser not currently on our board.

This is a true tour de force in stupidity by Burnt Eyes. Using total yardage to measure a team’s defense in the year of our Lord 2024 is mind boggling. And then to triple down and start talking smack using total yardage as your metric is some all time Shaggy/Surly combination of hubris and idiocy. It’s not a typo. You’re just continuing to show you don’t know shit about fuck. He gave you their defense-only ranking, DFEI. You quoted FPI, which is a team’s overall ranking from a completely different metric and which is pretty pointless when you’re trying to determine how good OU’s defense is in isolation. Both DFEI and SP+ have OU’s defense as a top 15 defense in the country even after the UT game. OU has a good defense. It’s really not possible to intelligently argue otherwise.

Brent Venables thinks Jackson Arnold is better than Dillon Gabriel.

Elko needs to donate his entire collection of sport coats to the hurricane relief efforts. Each one could easily work as a tent for a family of four.

Did Mixzou drop a ton after last week, or did your model already have them lower?

This seems like a brutal year to need a QB at the top of the draft. I wouldn't feel good about spending a top 3 pick on any of Milroe, Ewers, Sanders, Ward, or Beck.

There's some pretty interesting lines this week after all of last week's upsets. There's definitely some debate over who's actually good or who just had a one-week fluke. 1. Vandy is a 13.5 point dog at Kentucky and Bama is a 21.5 home favorite over SCar. So Bama seriously dropped the ball to a still not good Vandy team. Also has some inference to Mizzou since Vandy also took Mizzou to OT at Mizzou. 2. Following up on #1, Mizzou eeked out wins at home against BC and Vandy, who are 56th and 67th in F+. I have no idea how SP still has Mizzou at 13th other than still having preseason ranking bias. FEI has them all the way down to #32, and I believe FEI puts less preseason weighting in their rankings at this point in the year than SP+. To the eye test, I'd say Mizzou looks to be around 50th-60th best team in the country, and I expect they'll keep falling in the advanced rankings. A&M got a huge boost getting to play Mizzou while they were still ranked in the top 10. 3. It's not a direct comparison, but Texas was a 37.5 point favorite over MSU with Arch starting two weeks ago. MSU's performance against us bumped them up a bit in both SP+ and FEI. UGA is a 33.5 point favorite over MSU this week. I'm sure the lines will change based on how UT does against OU, but the markets are a little all over the place with the UGA game in two weeks. Most places have UGA as about a 2 point favorite over us. Fanduel is the outlier with UT as a 2.5 point favorite. Caeser's has UT +3 at -110. That seems like a pretty nice line to bet two weeks out, especially if you think UT will mudhole OU this weekend. 4. Iowa being a 2.5 point favorite over Washington surprises me some. I think Washington is pretty clearly better, but I wonder how much the game being at Iowa and Washington traveling two time zones plays in to the spread. Big Ten teams are 1-8 when traveling multiple time zones (not many unexpected outcomes though), so maybe the travel is giving a bigger home field bump than normal. Iowa's a little different this year than most previous years. They still have a very good defense, but they are more prone to giving up explosive plays this year, and their running offense is very good. If UW can hold up against the run, Iowa will be in trouble because I don't see them shutting down UW's offense all game.

Some of it will depend on how much he keeps growing/filling out, but he looks to have the speed and agility to stay at safety. Overshown didn’t really have that. Overshown was more straight line explosive, whereas Williams’ has better agility and COD while also being faster. But if Williams fills out to more like 230, spinning him down to LB could also be a great outcome as long as he’s willing to mix it up in the trenches.

I forgot about Terry. Assuming him and Hilson are in, then we’d need 3-4 more top 150 guys to get over 310, which is what it’s taken to be #2 the last two years. I’m guessing the DB they feel good about is Brew, so getting to #2 would be something like Terry, Hilton, flipping Brew, Wynn/Mathis, and one of Rogers or Pettijohn.

Beyond Hilson publicly committing, all of Rogers, Mathis/Mbatchou, Brew, and Pettijohn would be huge flips at positions of need in this class. Gerry had a post the other day that Texas could be in play for the #2 class. Based on previous years, we’d need to land about 5-6 more top 150 recruits to get there, so that probably means he thinks we could get Hilson, 2 DTs, 1 CB, and another WR or LB. That would be a pretty amazing finish to the class. Lee at CB would be great too, but it seems like we’re sitting third behind Bama and UGA. Sellers would be fun for the aggie tears and it would be great to get him and Brew, but I think Brew is the better prospect and punishing Oregon for trying to invade Texas would be a great bonus. The more in-state guys we can flip late, leaving their current schools without a good replacement, the better. It will hopefully make them think twice about banking on a recruit from Texas filling positions of need for them in the future.

It was 3.0 per carry when you include the 6 sacks. It was a little over 4 YPC when you take out the sacks. Both of their RBs were right around their season avg for YPC, which isn't great. I think PK prioritized limiting the passing game and was willing to give up some yards in the run game, so it's not the end of the world. It will be something to monitor against OU and UGA though. It's hard to say if our defense is more susceptible to the pass or the run at this point, because we've yet to face even a P5 average offense.

That's pretty interesting. I certainly would've guessed some recent Heisman winners had missed at least a game. I still think Ewers would be the favorite if we beat OU, UGA and win the SEC title game against Bama or someone like that, but Quinn obviously can't miss any more time or have any slip ups. I would still say he's Tier 2 though. He is more likely to win the Heisman than either Jaxson Dart or Miller Moss. Those guys aren't good enough individually to win it with 2-3 losses.

It makes a lot of sense for Portnoy as he can get serious returns on his NIL spending through publicity and player/program access. His math is certainly different than your average ultra-wealthy alum who won’t get hardly any ROI on that type of deal.

Sark used Gibson as the lead blocker on a trap play against MSU, and it made me think he’s looking for a piece like this. You can hand the ball to Terry, have him line up as an H-back, or motion him out to the slot. It allows Sark to utilize, 11, 12, and 20 personnel all without subbing so he can take advantage of defensive personnel weaknesses. I doubt Cam will declare unless he’s legitimately a top 45 pick. Pick 64 got $1.5 mil per year with only $1.5 mil guaranteed over 4 years. Cam could make a hefty sum in NIL as the best returning OL we have and improve his draft stock to a more surefire first round pick in 2026, where he’d be getting $3-5 mil per year and $6 million guaranteed. If Williams does declare, I’d expect us to be willing to pay top dollar in the portal for an OT. I also struggle to see Campbell declaring. He just hasn’t shown enough to get picked in the first 2 or 3 rounds.

I didn’t rewatch, but this matches what I saw live. Hill looked lost and slow on Saturday. It’s probably the first time he’s faced that Briles defense as a starting ILB, so it’s somewhat understandable. PK is also generally bad against that offense. Shouldn’t affect us too much unless we have to play Tenn in the SEC title game, which I doubt happens.