closetojumping

Here's more for everyone's consideration around the notions of development and evaluation. Michigan's recruiting classes ranked by OTF from 2018-2023 (this is the reasonable period in which a player could be expected to have contributed to the Michigan title run in 2023): 2018 - 28 2019 - 7 2020 - 10 2021 - 15 2022 - 9 2023 - 18 Now, here's Texas A&M in that same stretch: 2018 - 14 2019 - 4 2020 - 6 2021 - 8 2022 - 1 2023 - 15 Now, where does the evaluation value end and the development value begin? I don't know. Either Michigan just evaluated better than damned near everyone else, including the gurus, or they developed better than everyone else, or both. I lean more towards development but would give it a 40/60 split in my head. They kicked ass either way. Measured against that, ATM is probably the biggest failure at evaluation, development or both in the entire country among the P4 schools. Elko was there for 4 years of that and I'll argue evidence of his failures at one or both are clear in looking at the draft results. Jaylon Jones and Demarvion Leal were 5 star recruits who were not drafted to that pedigree. Those are guys actually drafted from their defense following these periods, which is saying something for ATM. A lot of their highly ranked guys flatly bombed. So, do we have justification to trust the coaches? Or should we worry about ATM-esque results? I think at most places outside of DB, you're okay leaning towards trusting the coaches right now.

I have intimated that Banks is involved with every aspect of recruiting and that's because he is. There are guys that get to take whatever approach and go after whatever evaluations they desire, and there are guys who have a tighter leash. One other thing that this board doesn't seem to want to fully digest is that both Sarkisian and Banks are starfuckers. They're human. They're not starfuckers to the level of Jimbo Fisher or Ryan Day, but they tend to overemphasize the glamour position and highly rated recruit if all things are equal. Guys like Flood, Choice and Nansen can override that, but others cannot.

I don't recall comparing you to genitals or calling you a mental midget. I'm interested in reading that color, however. I don't think your lamentations are without merit, but I can offer some thoughts that might help. On WRs - They're only going after difference makers these days. All four of the guys they've pushed for have either unique skill sets that are hard to find or they're the cream of the crop and can compete early. They added some developmental guys last cycle, but you're not seeing that here. Supplementing this kind of recruiting with the portal looks like a great formula. On OL - Flood is getting the guys he wants. He's done a good job of mixing in the potential early contributors with high rankings and evaluations he believes in. I don't know how you watch footage of Mills and think he's a JAG. The other guys have the size he wants and they want/need to be developed at Texas. OL are the worst evaluated players every cycle by the $9.95ers. There is the occasionaly Kelvin Banks, but they're rare. The services fuck up OL rankings constantly. With that considered, it is truly a "do you trust the coaches?" premise for every program. If you think Flood knows what he's doing, you shouldn't have a problem. If you do, so be it. I can say that they like their OL room. They've had several young backups show interest in leaving and they've invested both time and money to keep them. People within the program apparently think they're putting OLs into the draft almost every year from last year forward. On Jonah Williams - I've been pushing the red flags regarding him from the beginning of his recruitment. One of the big red flags is gone - MLB. So that alone makes him more attractive since you can bank on having him. Three more red flags can be alleged - 1) does he really want to be a great football player, 2) how much will baseball affect the premise of becoming a great football player and 3) he thinks he's a safety and everybody else thinks he's a LB. I don't know how to reconcile 1 & 2 for this recruit. I don't think anyone can. We're going to have to watch it unfold. Is he very serious about both sports? Does he favor one? Will he get enough reps at either? Etc., so forth. To me, these issues should give all of us pause. It's HIGHLY unlikely that he's the unicorn who excels at both in college. If he winds up being great at one and dumping the other, I still think that would be a win for UT sports fans. As to item 3, someone on here compared the situation to the recruitment of Overshown and that feels like a decent analog. The difference is that some folks believed that Overshown could remain a good safety. I guess the other thing that is different is that the reason the dude now is ranked so highly is due to the Harold Perkins comparisons at LB, which is all projection but understandable. So for Williams, my view is that Texas fans should be pumped if he commits to Texas. We'll also be entertained from the enemy consternation. It's up to the individual in terms of whether or not you think the player, the S&C staff, the football staff and the baseball staff can navigate their way into seeing the guy develop into a difference maker for either roster. If he goes elsewhere, none of these thoughts change for me, other than what level of faith I have in terms of someone else developing him properly. On DL - The handling of the DT recruiting is worthy of derision, while the handling of the DE/Edge recruiting should be lauded. If the services had any balls, Jackson would finish as a 5 star, because he profiles as such, right down to the pedigreed blood lines at this point. On DT, they're going to wind up signing 4 guys. They've found several they like who are visiting soon and they think they're going to flip 1-2 guys late. BTW, if you really need to wring your hands right now, why aren't you sweating CB/NB recruiting? That looks like a shit show on par with DT.

So, and this is as far as I can tell, the moderators over on the ATM 247 site held a late night livestream or something. Not sure if booze was involved but it sounds possible. Anyway, they eventually agreed on it that all of the CB additions from the portal, including Ricks and Lee, are dogshit and that Thomas, a Jimbo recruit, is likely going to have to be the starter. Another thing they touched on was that most of the WRs are bad and wouldn't make many P4 two deeps. They're mostly slow and can't catch for shit. They also posted photos and video of numerous receiver drops. If The Elko gets wind of this, those fellas better look out.

Sorry if this has been discussed ad nauseum but I didn’t see much scanning the last few pages - is everything settled for who is and isn’t making it to campus from the recruiting class and do you guys feel good about that? Similarly, did we get any surprises, good or bad, from the guys already on campus who were drafted?

Man, that is really grim. They’re trying to manage expectations in uncomfortable ways. Like they’ve been told shit is going to be really ugly.

I don’t follow fantasy, but that notion is laughable in real life. Richardson has never not had bust written all over him.

I’ve always viewed myself as more of the Will Goodloe of Surly. You’re sort of the Jake Hammer of this board.

After reading our collective posts, I think a “big back” thread would be fun on the football board. Lot of room to work with and they always pop up with new personalities each season.

Soft isn’t accurate. Overrated is accurate if he insists on staying at S. If the dude moves to LB and embraces it, he’s potentially the best LB recruit in the country. Now that MLB is off the table, he’s worth a shot. And yes, the tears of our enemies mostly make it worth it as well. For that alone, I’m hoping Texas lands him.

Normally, there's a "pick your playoff champion" thread this time of year by someone. I've written a few and find them fun to see where people are landing with their outlook for the season. The guesser two years ago closest to the pin was @Wulaw Horn, getting 3 out of 4. I got 1 out of 4 - whoops. Last year was closer for just about everyone, with a few getting 3 out of 4. This year, things are different. There will be 12 teams making the playoff, with the highest ranked 4 conference champions getting 1st round byes. The 5th highest ranked conference champion gets the 12th seed (or better if they're ranked higher). So, you pretty much have to pick the P4 conference title game champions. This is where a 9-4/10-3 can automatically get in and throw some things for a loop with a bubble 11 seed getting bumped by an unexpected 11-2/12-1 title game loser. Here are my picks and various thoughts for anyone interested. I'm not going into seeding because that's on a whole 'nother level, dawg. I've picked the conference title games and winners, followed by the other 7 P4 bids and then the G5 Ms. Congeniality prize winner. Big 10 Title Game - Penn State versus Oregon - Oregon wins. SEC Title Game - Texas versus Ole Miss - Texas wins. Big 12 Title Game - Utah versus Oklahoma State - Utah wins. ACC Title Game - Virginia Tech versus Miami - Virginia Tech wins. That's your top 4 seeds. Following that, I like: -Bama, Georgia and Ole Miss from the SEC -Penn State, Ohio State from the Big 10 -Miami from the ACC -Notre Dame -Memphis from the AAC That's 12 teams for 12 spaces. No 2nd team for the Big 12 and no 4th team for the Big 10. Fuck Liberty and their bullshit even if they go 12-0. For my championship game, I'm taking Texas versus Oregon because I am a homer and then taking Texas over Oregon because I am also a homer and will believe that Dan Lanning can win a game against a comparably talented opponent after the 1st time I see it. I had a long write-up about competing teams that I pondered breaking down into conference threads but that made me feel like it was too much and that it might look like I'm all hopped on speed or something, which I am not. I decided to just spoiler my thoughts on various contenders and hope that others addicted to this shit would read up and offer their own takes. Hook'em and thanks for any others bringing their own opinions to the table. Here are links to prior season thoughts:

I’ll see you there.

The Buffalo kicker? I don’t really remember that story either. I know the Arkansas guy isn’t my kind of guy, but the accusations from the woman online were proven to be false or at least highly suspect. That’s about all I remember.

To me, this is a domino falling. If Elko believed that he had what he needs to match or overcome the no-name baseball guy, he’d have told that to Wilfong.

This makes sense. Deion was likely hoping to leverage some expertise with regard to managing dissident journalists lining up to poke holes in his regime.

Something to consider regarding Williams, and I don't know how much public play this gets or doesn't because I don't watch most of the streams or read the gurus outside of OTF. The dad is a county? judge down that way. He gets a whole lot of cachet if his boy makes a big move to Texas or ATM. Less so if he leaves the state. It's not nothing. The big reason no one is being assertive about this recruitment is due to NIL and its relevance versus other recruiting and school parameters. NIL will play a role here, but how much of one isn't clear. The other part of the NIL equation is simply the unknown. Does Marucci step up with something crazy? Can Texas football NIL hold a candle to it? LSU doesn't have the horses on the FB side, but will they get the baseball assist? From the ATM end, does the football NIL break the bank to overcome the concern around the noob in the baseball HC role? None of the gurus for any of these schools can read those tea leaves yet. Nevermind Oregon showing up with something so fucking silly that it makes everything else moot. No way that happens, right? Right? All of this for a guy who isn't a safety, doesn't want to be a linebacker, and is way more toolsy than functional on a diamond.

Weird. I likely have an aversion to revering big white dudes toting the rock. Isn't there a Toby something or other as well, now that you mention it? This should the quote on the cornerstone of the physical Surly office building where @immamac plots his infernal schemes.

There was a whole thread on that guy and his issues. The accuser ended up being full of shit on a bunch of the stuff, even if the player looks like a despicable version of a frat bro himself. I can't remember the thread title or whatever, but it's worth the scan if you're interested. It's not anything close to the Duke Lacrosse scandal, but it is a lot closer to that than Baylor.

Yes, that's okay. I was replying to the idea of anything specific to a player's output being added to their helmet for folks to scan regarding just them. When you made the Ohio State sticker reference, I inferred that the QR codes would serve a similar purposes when added (a kudos for performance).

The interior DL they wanted most went to Oregon. Regarding Williams, OU paid a price above rubies and Texas saw replacement value as much less expensive. I guess we'll see which program was right in that regard when comparing Lole and Norton's numbers to DW's. But if you're going to whine about shit, get the facts around the whines correct. The UH DT was the number 1 target. Your OL silliness isn't worth the keystrokes.

If that’s what you want to call him. It’s not what we called him back in the day. That fatass was busted on more than one occasion basically hogging most of the weed in the greater BCS region.

I think it's because he ran with reckless abandon and zero regard for his own body or those trying to stop him. How much running do you think he actually did? Outside of a few plays against Tech, the guy was basically a whole lot of behind the LOS sound and fury, gaining nothing.

Jerome Bettis, Rodney Culver (RIP), Japorkie Lane, Jabong Doobs. Count me out on this notion in today's CFB, but the nostalgia is great.

Whether the tech can go there or not, there would be real issues associated to specific player performance-related compensation. That's one of the few no-no's that the NCAA still has a leg to stand on with enforcement.

My view on this game hasn't changed much since looking at things immediately after the season. Of course, both teams lost a lot, but then they both did some good things with the portal to offset some or all of that. I've felt since the beginning much like the sentiments you guys are espousing - this will be a closely fought game that Texas should win. My logic in "Texas should win" is simply grounded in the basics - Texas returns its excellent QB and most of the OL, along with the same HC/DC/OC. When you have those things together, your team should win a bunch of ballgames. That combo also helps negate significant opposing homefield advantage. Conversely, Michigan has literally none of that coming back. They're talented, they have Harbaugh DNA, they'll have home filed advantage. A loss to Michigan in that environment will not be embarrassing, barring a blowout, but I am fine with the expectations and the line. We're going to learn more than people think we probably will from watching Michigan play Fresno State in their opener. Fresno has the HC issue with Tedford leaving abruptly due to health concerns, but he'd done a good job with the roster and culture. They're a decent G5 team even without him. More importantly, Michigan is replacing 18 starters. They can like what they see in practice and still need to run through a good deal of their snaps with their first team rotations on both sides of the ball, even if they're blowing FSU out. They can't just hide who they are in that game with Texas looming and if they try that, they're idiots. I wouldn't want guys in key roles getting their first true live fire against a top 5 team at noon in week two of the season.