My view on this game hasn't changed much since looking at things immediately after the season. Of course, both teams lost a lot, but then they both did some good things with the portal to offset some or all of that. I've felt since the beginning much like the sentiments you guys are espousing - this will be a closely fought game that Texas should win.
My logic in "Texas should win" is simply grounded in the basics - Texas returns its excellent QB and most of the OL, along with the same HC/DC/OC. When you have those things together, your team should win a bunch of ballgames. That combo also helps negate significant opposing homefield advantage. Conversely, Michigan has literally none of that coming back. They're talented, they have Harbaugh DNA, they'll have home filed advantage. A loss to Michigan in that environment will not be embarrassing, barring a blowout, but I am fine with the expectations and the line.
We're going to learn more than people think we probably will from watching Michigan play Fresno State in their opener. Fresno has the HC issue with Tedford leaving abruptly due to health concerns, but he'd done a good job with the roster and culture. They're a decent G5 team even without him. More importantly, Michigan is replacing 18 starters. They can like what they see in practice and still need to run through a good deal of their snaps with their first team rotations on both sides of the ball, even if they're blowing FSU out. They can't just hide who they are in that game with Texas looming and if they try that, they're idiots. I wouldn't want guys in key roles getting their first true live fire against a top 5 team at noon in week two of the season.