closetojumping

Bleh.

Fair.

We've reached the point in this thread where it could be time for you to stop intervening with tedious shit from 9 years ago and analyzing single runs from TBs down to the gnat's ass as a quasi-scientific means of determining whether said TB can be viewed as having value in the future state. Pop open a coke and have a smile and then find something new to dissect and salve your Asperger's mind.

That would hurt. More than someone like Finkley who is being passed over? I'm wondering if Finkley might be eligible to be a GT because I feel like his family was all over the academics and he came in with courses finished already. Might be misremembering that though. The only name floated both in December and now that makes a lot of sense to me is Tapp. He could apparently be starting somewhere else by observer estimates.

FYI, our very own Nordberg lives on here on Surly under the handle @Red Five.

Fuck that guy. The world is a better place with his exit. Just a sorry piece of shit who deserved worse than he got.

Burton posted thoughts today around the Burrell exit that I thought made some sense. Link below. In the comments section, @Red Five had an interesting counterpoint to some pollyanna nonsense as well. https://ontexasfootball.com/forums/topic/1252-thoughts-on-smaje-burrell/#comment-14740 Anyway, the attrition has begun. We're discussing it plenty in the transfer thread on the recruiting board, but here are some thoughts in this thread too. Obviously, there aren't a bunch of guys on the roster that the program "wants" to lose but there are between 7-10 spots that need to be vacated. 1) Burrell was gone before he drunkenly rearended Sweat on Sunday morning. Until that incident, the staff wanted to keep him, but Baylor and other Big 12 schools had already told his family that he'd be a day 1 starter for them and he's riding 3rd string at Texas. 2) They're overloaded at DB. A name there is Jordan, although nothing in concrete. Again, that guy could be starting somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised by 2+ exits from DB. Holmes maybe? He's looked good this spring and playing with urgency. He's not a bum. I don't see how pain is avoided at DB. 3) OL is simply loaded and they're about to put another top 1-2 OL class in the country together. I've heard that Stroh isn't going anywhere and they like him a lot. Not a lot of rumblings about anyone on the two deep. There have long been whispers about Connor Robertson maybe heading elsewhere. My problem with that story is that this site is loaded with Westlake honks who have said something at some point. Merril's family have deep ties and support to UT and UT athletics, allegedly, and that dude is valued. Kirkland checks a lot boxes for why someone would transfer - away from home, buried on the depth chart, lingering recovery work from a serious injury, was in the doghouse almost immediately after arriving to campus. 4) No one is saying much, but I view Mitchell as the single most likely candidate to transfer in this cycle. He checks every box for why a guy would leave. 5) There are too many TEs on the roster. 6) I'll be surprised if Savion Red is on the roster come August. 7) No rumblings about anyone at WR. 8 ) There are too many DEs/Edge guys on the roster.

One of my friends was at practice that week. He called me and said "I know you won't believe this, but this shit is so bad that I think a blowout this weekend may get this guy fired." I argued there was no way they would do that and he said "as bad as this team looks, this could make the Mack blowouts look close." And then we won. I was happy for a few days about Texas football for a bit. Felt nice at the time. Someone thinks that dude is the love child of Bryant Gumble and Janet Reno, apparently. Grim.

I like the football board. There's a wider span of humans there and a lot more chaos. This board has almost become too curated.

You’ve got an amazing sense of the posting world on Surly and a stunning grasp of the literal. Good work.

Burrell is gone. Okay. Names more likely than others, apparently: Red, Cojoe, Robertson, Kirkland, Holmes, Davis (don’t tell @immamac), and Jordan. No guarantees and there could well be others, but none of those above should shock anyone. Merril is a longer term contributor to the AD and program. I assume he’s there until he’s a GA or something.

Burrell was the “done deal” that Gerry was referencing this weekend that had people asking around thinking it was an incoming name.

I wasn't responding regarding you. Like I said, advanced stats have their place in CFB, but I don't think that place is in player to player comparisons, since that's doable without the statistical noise and the sides will either find common ground or what fans do and keep arguing. Same for the gameday stuff. Sometimes, the coach shouldn't give a shit about national statistics for FG probability at a certain point in the game dimming the positive eventual outcome and just realize that you're fucking playing OU, you have their offense on the ropes, kick the FG and make them comeback by 3 scores with 8 minutes on the clock.

Something to think about is that some of the big money folks communicate with Ketchum on recruiting and transfers, and they speak in certainties. There's a pattern to follow that when rumors pop up like the Alexander thing and then Ketchum talks about it and then the tables turn. That's not karmic. Ketchum has to appear in the know because the notion of being an insider is that blubbering manatee's currency. One of the idiotic things that that tub of goo will do is convey information to others in the business in order to look like he's really standing out. So while posting something on twitter where you do the "nanny nanny boo boo" thing may not actually be a big deal, telling one of the moderators of the USC Rivals site or one of the national Rivals mods a negotiated number might be the kind of bragging that accidentally gives USC the information they need to put the whole thing to bed.

I continue to be of the opinion that "big data" and "data science" as it pertains to college football can be just mental masturbation and ways for consultants and tech firms to suckle off the teat of the CFB behemoth. I say that as someone who completely understands the value of those terms and the work around them for baseball, golf, hockey, basketball, etc. In CFB the sample sizes are too small and the variables in rosters, conditions, injuries (something significantly more impactful on outcomes in game than other sports and not incorporated into any of the data outputs/predictions), etc. have significant beta on them that can only be overcome with sample sizes that aren't going to be there. I'm speaking mostly about individual player analysis/comparisons with advanced stats and the notion of "this is what the book said" as an excuse for determining outcomes in games. I get the uses for gambling and long term evaluation of playcallers and their habits. Idiots who just mindlessly work off of a "book" or a "binder", like Herman, are as bad as the guys who used to only, it seemed, play for field goals.

Two gigantic, lazy fatasses lacking ethics and offering up bullshit opinions. Good lord.

You follow the draft way more than I do, so I'll trust your takes here. That said, I'd assumed both Sanders and Sweat would be punished by 1-2 rounds each for their respective issues this spring. Not that I was thinking that would make sense, but thinking it nonetheless.

First, to be clear, I have not heard anything regarding any specific names transferring, and I haven't asked. I think those will be poorly kept secrets that all, or mostly, get out to folks by this weekend. That considered, there is one player on the team who checks every single common transfer attribute box: a) far away from home, ie., homesick b) helicopter parent who is always calling/emailing/texting coaches and/or involved at practices c) in the doghouse for one reason or another with staff d) not in the two deep on the depth chart e) dealing with chronic injury or conditioning issues f) currently possessing higher perception value than performance value (someone would throw more money at the player than Texas would care to match) Now, Sarkisian praising Mitchell at his PC is noteworthy. However, that could also be staving off the transfer risk. Regardless, if Texas is bringing in more help to put in front of Mitchell at DT/NT, the warning lights should be flashing violently. Regarding both of these guys, there is no indication that the staff wants to lose either guy. There is likely a sense of inevitability on it, however. ---- As I think about the names that could be coming up, who are the guys that haven't been mentioned while newer/younger players at their position have been spoken of well by the staff? Maybe that's not revealing anything, we'll see, but it's led me to be of the opinion that Austin Jordan could be a transfer candidate. Same for Swanson, Holmes, Roberson, Tapp, Burrell, Robertson, Kirkland, Cojoe, Stroh, Merril, Red, Randle, Shannon, and Niblett.

There are multiple posters on OTF speculating that maybe there are other reasons besides NIL for why Alexander is in the portal. I imagine it’s worse on the other boards. I want to laugh at their idiocy and then cry for the planet’s future.

From intelligence to advertising. That’s quite the redirect.

While this is correct, my personal opinion is going to remain that going after this guy and giving him money is stupid. The new USC defensive staff came in and took a similar approach to Elko. The first guys that decided that the rough stuff wasn’t for them included Alexander. Friends with good access to opinions from the USC end have already confirmed that the USC view is “good riddance and not worth the fucking money”.

You can't move the argument from "Oregon beats us for players in California" to "Oregon has beaten us for players historically from across the land". Since the addition of NIL and the move to the SEC, Texas won the only battle it has had with Oregon. If memory serves, they'd lost to Louisville on Moore and then Louisville had HC turnover and Texas won that NIL battle as well. Oregon is as well-funded as anyone, and that anyone includes Texas at the top. Neither side is prone to insanity, so the circumstances are more likely to come down to preferences/needs beyond NIL. Texas doesn't have Harris as high as like 5 other guys on their board, but there's the need to keep some guys warm in case something doesn't work out, as well as keep up appearances with contacts in California that funnel players to Texas.

Sounds like Texas is going to make their pitch to this fucking mercenary Bear Alexander. I disagree with it and view it as a waste of resources and a potentially terrible move for culture. The guy is a mediocrity to boot.

Deep Water (2006) - Don't look up the story before watching it and then it is kind of absurdly funny and very sad.

The Tech 247 board is currently convinced that they're going to land both Orogbo and Chace Sims, among others.