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Mikey4

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by Mikey4

  1. I convinced my wife to forgo hitting the gym ever morning (she goes at 5:30am 6 days a week)  This morning she woke me up @5 and was like "hey I not working out at home alone"
    Nothing like hitting the weights hard before the sun comes up...   so yeah, I'm not tippy top today
    Same. I had to use a lot of persuasion to get her to stay home. We have Peloton, treadmill, olympic weights, dumbells, pretty much everything she wants, but it was like pulling teeth to get her to stay here. It's astonishing to me that her gym is even open.
  2. This is why schools shouldn't be cancelled.  We've passed the buck onto a realm that we can't control and encouraged intercommunity spread.
    Singapore is using their schools as a proxy to monitor communities for the disease.  Teachers are recording the temperatures and attendence of all their students each day.  Slight fever?  Get quarantined.
    I don't understand this. It seems like keeping kids out of school would improve the situation, even if it is imperfect.
  3. There's a fine line between hoarding and being responsible. I have 5 mouths to feed, including my own. I don't think it's unreasonable to have 2-3 weeks of food on hand given the circumstances. I bought basically all of that back in January, when videos of Wuhon hospitals began to circulate and there were not yet any imbalances in supply and demand. I focused on stuff that we'll eat one way or another. And now we're eating it, rather than leaving the house to shop, so I don't consider it hoarding, but minds may differ I guess.

    But yeah, bulk buying tp and water is stupid.

    • Like 1
  4. Here's a question. For those of us who have 2+ weeks of food on hand, is it better to restock every 4-7 days? Or run it down low and make big, occasional runs?

     

    If we aren't worried about stuff running out, making fewer runs for one big order makes sense from the social distancing standpoint. It all comes down to whether we think stores are gonna run out of food. I don't think that's gonna happen. I think the run we saw is about done and we'll have adequate supplies all the way through.

     

    Or am I wrong?

    Great question. I was wondering the same. For now, I'm going to restock piecemeal from Amazon. Shipping dates on some things are weeks out, but if you order now, then you'll have it when you need it. Hopefully the demand will subside somewhat and a real grocery run will be feasible.

     

    Edit: amazon is pretty picked over. The stuff I'm getting is in the category of "calories to keep you alive"--trail mix, protein bars, etc. I'll need to find a way to get real food sooner or later.

  5. For those of us with the young kids, what are you planning to do while they're home? My wife and I have been making a list, so wanted to share here in case others have ideas that we should add on our list. We are taking this really seriously (thank goodness she came around, she was pissed at my suggesting she stop taking the kids to play dates until I made her read articles about Italy and how it spreads). Our kids are 1.5 and 4. Here are our ideas:

    - My wife got a bunch of craft stuff, so she'll do some kind of craft every day with them
    - I just bought the 4 year old a couple of soccer goals for the yard and a football, once it stops raining it's time for him to learn the games
    - Our almost 2 year old is way behind on speech development, so we're going to work with him on new words every day
    - He also has recently started taking interest in us going to the bathroom, could we come out of quarantine with two potty trained?
    - I bought the 4 year old an Xbox with Kinect and introduced him to his first video games this weekend. Trying not to show him any that aren't Kinect/active play for now. I know the time will come...
    - The 4 year old is really close to being able to read. We don't want to buy any books and have them delivered right now, so we'll find online beginning reading stuff for him to read on the tablet
    - Both kids like their bikes/trikes, so we'll do daily walks in the evening with them and the dog once this rain eventually clears
    - We just got a bunch of games at Christmas like connect 4 and operation, so I expect those will get some good use.

    As for the wife and me, we're looking at projects around the house we've been putting off that we might as well do when we're stuck here. Cleaning out closets, fixing things that need a little love, and boring stuff like that. We also have been trying to learn some new stuff, foreign languages, instruments, etc. No better time than now. We're looking at what we can do for date nights to keep from getting beat down. Grilling steaks and opening an expensive wine instead of going out. We both like board games as well and have some we haven't brought out in a while. Plenty of series we've meant to binge and never have. We've also already been on a home workout routine, and it will be hard to argue we don't have time to keep up with that now.

    This all might sound a bit ambitious, and maybe it is. I'd rather have plans for what we want to do with the time. Otherwise I think we'll go crazy, or worse, not stick to the self quarantine. We're going in with the mindset that this is a few months not a few weeks. I don't think this will be done quickly, so we can take our time on this stuff.

    Would love to hear other ideas any of you have, particularly for the kids. This won't be an easy time, but I'm focused on coming out the other side feeling like we made the best use of the time we could rather than laid around lazy and wasted a few months.

    We're not as organized. Kids are 11, 9, 4. So far, it's been:

    - Fortnite
    - Rake leaves
    - Fortnite
    - Backyard sports
    - Fortnite
    - Family movie
    - Fortnite

    If we go major lockdown, I'm planning to build a fort with the older kids in the greenbelt by our house.
    • Like 1


  6. Jesus christ people. Its been rapidly established that fomites (ie surfaces and intermediaries) are the main way this thing spreads
     
    avoid anything but your house if u can. I swear to god our population is fucking retarded


    Here is what the CDC says about COVID-19 modes of transmission:

    The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

    Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
    Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

    These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.

    ...

    It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.


    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fabout%2Ftransmission.html

    So yes, wash your hands and avoid touching surfaces. But even more importantly, avoid the risk of inhaling droplets that are in the air. Social distancing should reduce transmission either way, though.
    • Like 2
  7. No doubt.  For a virus like this, Surly recommends at least 17 ARs, 43 shotguns, 10 hunting rifles, 75 semiautomatic pistols, 8 revolvers, 2 crates of grenades, a flame thrower, 6 or 7 tactical crossbows, a tomahawk, and 37,000 rounds of ammo.  Per family.  
    Not enough firearms. Or ammo. Your list will only last a week in the coming coronavirus zombie apocalypse.
  8. The math on the confirmed number of cases and lethality has pretty much blown away the initial numbers regarding both lethality and severity of infection.
    There are all sorts of concerns that they are purposely suppressing the official  cause of death in cases in an attempt to hopefully limit both the local and global panic it would cause.
    At some point, especially if the death toll and number of infected follow the currents exponential rate, you will have to see large scale shutdown and quarantine of most of mainland China. As terrifying as this is from a human safety standpoint, a longterm quarantine (even something as short as 4 weeks) will cause an insane level of supply chain disruption that will heavily impact the global economy and tank the Chinese economy, which would more than likely set off the impending collapse of their over leveraged banking system.
    Russia and N Korea have both closed off traffic of people (but not goods so far) on their shared borders. If you see them announce that all crossings are closed, (ie no goods as well) prepare for this to escalate quickly.  
    The numbers I've been watching (in addition to the exponentially increasing infection count) are number of deaths compared to number of recoveries. In mainland China, 170 people have died, while only 124 people have recovered. So, out of the 294 people who have seen this thing to its end, ~60% died. That's pretty sobering.

    That rate is certainly impacted by timing. Death can happen quickly, while recovery may take weeks or months. If the fatality rate is really as low as people are saying (2-3% is what I've read), then over the next few weeks, we should see the # recovered far surpass the # of deaths. But that's a presumption, and only time will tell. As of now, we don't know what the fatality rate will be.
  9. Was watching BBC this morning and they reported that China said that on average everyone that contracted  the virus infects 3 others.  By now I think those 90000 infected reports may be low.
    I've flipped over to CNN , Fox, MSNBC from time to time and it seems like it's all impeachment 24/7.  IMO, this is a much bigger story. 
    Same. Almost every day I flip through the national news channels and locals to see if there is any coverage, and I haven't seen any yet. I'm sure it's being covered, but it isn't being given the attention it deserves.
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