I think the 12 team format is going to make this pretty chalky in most cases. The Big 12 and ACC can potentially make things interesting, but with more chaos in those conferences, the higher likelihood it is that another preseason favorite from the SEC or B1G gets in and the other conferences get just 1 or maybe 2 teams in.
ACC- This league is wide open. Clemson, FSU (even with the loss to GT), Miami, NC State, Va Tech, and even SMU have a realistic shot at going 10-2 which would put them in the conversation. Miami is the most talented so I'll take them as the champ even though Cristobal is an idiot. I just don't have a ton of confidence in anyone else. Champ: Miami
Big 12- I view the Big 12 as less wide open than the ACC but the middle can jump up and spoil things for the rest of the league. I expect that the champion has 2 or maybe even 3 losses which will most likely relegate it to a one bid league. I'm not buying all of the hype on K-State and Avery Johnson. They will be a top 3 team in the league but Utah if healthy is a safe bet to at least make the championship game and from there its probably a little better than a coin flip that they win it if they are there. Oklahoma State would be my second pick here. Champ: Utah
B1G- Outside of the top 4 teams, this league is mediocre. Outside of the Top 6, this league downright sucks. I don't see Ohio St, Oregon, or Penn State losing more than 2 games and Michigan's schedule is so weak that 9-3 is the floor there too. Ohio State has the most tough games out of the top 3 but they are the most talented roster. Conversely Penn St probably has the least talented roster but the easiest schedule. I have an Ohio St vs Penn St rematch in the championship and Ohio St winning it. Champ: Ohio St
SEC- I think Georgia and Texas are near locks to at least make the playoff. They are the most talented teams and have the most depth. Alabama is still a very talented team and Deboer can coach so I'm not writing them off as a 9-3 team. It'd be very underwhelming for Ole Miss to go anything less than 10-2. I'm not buying Tennessee. Nico may be awesome and Pearce is a great pass rusher but there is a legitimate talent gap between the rest of that roster and the top of the SEC. They are kind of like Ole Miss without the infusion of transfer portal talent. LSU will be a fun team to watch but I think USC, Ole Miss, A&M, Alabama, Oklahoma will yield 3 losses. A&M has a super weak schedule when comparing to other teams but their thin depth and injury risk does not align very well with where most of their important games land on the schedule. They are lucky Notre Dame lost its LT but a healthy Riley Leonard is going to suck for them to deal with, they get Florida early before that brutal schedule kicks in, they get Arkansas early enough where the team is still fighting for Pittman's job, Missouri before they have to dig too deep into their depth, then LSU, Auburn, and Texas all in the back half. I'll take Texas as the champ because I'm a homer but I'll bet that Texas and UGA split the game in Oct and the SEC championship. Champ: Texas
Indy- I think Notre Dame is going to get in because I think they have a 10-2 floor and chaos in the ACC and Big 12 make it so there is not obvious replacements for them.
G5- Liberty is a popular pick because of the schedule quality but I'm not going to take them. I thought it would be Boise but the top of the MWC could be scrappy and complicate things for them. Probably a crapshoot but I'll put Miami (OH) in there to mix it up.
PLAYOFF TEAMS (no order)
1. Miami
2. Utah
3. Ohio St
4. Texas
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami (OH)
7. Georgia
8. Ole Miss
9. Alabama
10. Oregon
11. Penn St
12. Michigan