PAC-12
Utah- They'd be my favorite to make a CFP if I didn't have concerns about Rising's health and they play the toughest conference schedule of all the contenders
Oregon- Trips to Lubbock in Week 2 and, Seattle in October (albeit after a bye), and SLC in late October (Rising presumably healthy by then) loom. Good team but I think 10-2 at best.
USC- Defense is still too soft. This is a very similar team to Riley's OU teams that made the CFP. The difference is that the PAC is much stronger than the B12 was at the top
Washington- Another good team but not good enough to make it through unscathed. I wonder about their depth a bit and I see 3-2 as best case out of @MSU, Oregon, @USC, Utah, @OSU
UCLA- Popular sleeper pick. I don't see them as much more than a 9-3 type spoiler for the CFP contenders. They do have the most favorable schedule fo the contenders though
CFP Teams: 0 BIG 12
Texas- If we weren't so jaded from Texas not meeting expectations since 2009, this would be one of the easiest CFP picks across the board. This is probably the worst Alabama team Saban has had in a decade and we get them early in the season before they get in any sort of groove. The top of the Big 12 is weak. There are a lot of decent teams that can pull an upset here or there but nobody can match what Texas has. Anything less than 10-2 is a disappointment and 11-1 should be the expectation and that should warrant a CFP berth.
OU- We know all too well about how difficult it is to right the ship after a setback season. They don't have the difference makers offensively to overwhelm anyone. They'll be ok but I don't see anything better than 10-2 despite their soft schedule.
KSU- This is probably the biggest threat to Texas as B12 champion. They don't have the talent to roll through the entire B12 though. Trips to Stillwater, Lubbock, and Austin are not easy. Probably 10-2.
Rest of the B12 will be good not great. Nobody is going to going 11-1/12-0 but there will be plenty of 8-4 teams that beat each other up
CFP Teams: Texas
B1G
Michigan- This will be another very good team. Non-con is a joke and they get favorable teams from the West. They are 11-1 at worst imo and is probably my favorite pick to make the CFP.
Ohio St- They are going to score a ton of points even with a new QB. @Notre Dame, Penn St, @Wisconsin, and @Michigan will likely be too tough for them to get through undefeated and they will lose the head to head to Penn St or UM and be on the outside looking in. I could see it playing out a bit like last year though in which they go 11-1 and still make the CFP
Penn St- I'll believe they can win the big ones when I see it. They get Iowa from the west which will be difficult and they go to MSU in the last week of the season which will be a rock fight in 15 degree weather. 10-2 at best but I think 9-3 is more likely.
Iowa- I think they are heavy favorites in the West and could be 11-1 or 12-0 and squarely in CFP contention when the B1G Championship rolls around. I do think their offense takes a step forward and their schedule does not scare me outside of trips to Penn St and Wisconsin.
CFP Teams: Michigan
SEC
Georgia- I think this Georgia team is more like the 2018/2019 teams rather than to 2021/2022 ones. That being said, its a super soft schedule. There's still room for a slip up @Auburn or @Tennessee and they are probably in although then they would have to win the SEC Championship. I think they probably get in by default though.
Alabama- As stated earlier, this is the worst Alabama team in a decade. Major questions at QB, relatively weak WR talent, and only an OK O Line by their standard. They may get hot down the stretch but Texas catches them at a great time. They are going to try to play bully ball but I don't think they have the advantage in the trenches that they have been accustomed to in the Saban era. I think this is probably a 10-2 team but they probably still win the West.
LSU- I think they are a bit overrated. Obviously return a ton from last years 10 win team but they got handled in three of their 4 losses and I don't think they are dramatically better than last year's team. FSU in week 1 could be a loss, @Ole Miss, Auburn, @Alabama, and A&M will yield at least one loss. So you're best case 11-1 going into the SEC championship against UGA again which they will not win.
Tennessee- Sleeper pick of the SEC if there is such a thing. I don't trust Milton one bit but Hooker was a very good college QB so I don't knock him that much for not starting over him. We all know that the system makes it easy for QB's, he just needs to be more accurate and this team will roll through most of their schedule. Their two tough games are @Alabama which they should be able to outscore, and UGA which will be very tough but I still give them a puncher's chance. If these guys had a more proven commodity at QB, I'd pick them. They could also get the 11-1 non-champion treatment that Ohio St got last year too.
A&M- LOL no. But seriously, they will probably be better than 5-7 but anyone predicting them doubling their win total from last year is an idiot. Paper thin depth, known culture issues that have led to them quitting games, and the ticking time bomb that is the working relationship between Petrino and Jimbo. I think it'll be 7-5.
The rest is mediocre. Auburn might sneak up on some but they don't have the talent to make a run.
CFP Teams: Winner of Georgia/Tennessee. Picking Georgia
ACC
Clemson- By far and away the most talented roster in the ACC and are kinda flying under the radar due to the hype FSU has gotten. The offense is going to be improved in a big way. Garrett Riley is the best OC they have had there since Chad Morris. I don't really think Klubnik is that good but he can definitely be as good as Max Duggan was for TCU last year. If the offense is scoring points, the ACC is weak enough that they can out-talent most everyone on defense and roll. Both FSU and Notre Dame are at home which will be their two toughest games. 12-0 or 11-1 is my prediction.
FSU- Good team but is being overhyped due to the weak ACC. They lucked into their win against LSU last season and lost to every other decent team they played. LSU in week 1 is huge as their schedule is pretty soft other than @Clemson. I think 10-2 is most likely.
Notre Dame- I'll put them here since I don't see any G5 teams worthy enough to have an 'other' category. I think they are a lot better than last year but this year will showcase how under appreciated Brian Kelly is as a HC. He won at least 10 games every season from 2017-2022. 10 wins is what I see the ceiling is for this team. @NC State, Ohio St, @Lousiville, USC, and @Clemson are all losable or likely losses.
Nobody else in the ACC is worth mentioning
CFP Teams: Clemson
TLDR: Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Clemson