Funny thing about the part I bolded, wrt Aranda having some success and leaving. I was thinking along those same lines but didn't post my thoughts so I'll share since you brought that up. I disagree with you I think. From what little I've seen and heard about the guy's personal life i.e., his Christian beliefs, seem to be quite sincere. He talks the talk at least and in a convincing way. I don't recall a recent coach at Baylor who so openly embraced that aspect of their personal life. Mulkey, Scott Drew, Art Briles, Matt Rhule - all gave some lip service but Aranda really seems like he feels at home at a Christian branded university. Baylor has proven themselves to be patient with their first time coaches (Mulkey and Drew both are first timers). They are also quick to reward success, both Briles and Rhule were given raises and extensions at the first glimmer of hope. Financial compensation will not be a barrier to retaining Aranda and the environment may be a plus for his personal reasons.
Once the Baptits had a taste of what sort of financial boon football success could provide with the RGIII Heisman (est. 300MM in donations and from various revenue streams and does not include the monies for McLane stadium, housing and training facilities) they seem committed to providing facilities and infrastructure that will continue to entice a segment of athletes that previously would not have given Baylor much thought.
All this to say that unless Aranda is as mercenary as most of his brethren in the profession, I think he could with marginal success become a fixture here. I'm withholding judgment on his HC abilities.