USC Traveler

You've been killing it itt lately. Between the tweets you've linked and your own posts, you have been bringing the lulz. Well done sir.

Great to see you posting in here. I always enjoyed kicking ideas around with you back on the Shaggy realignment thread. I recall you and I (amongst others) feeling like the PAC not partnering with ESPN/FOX on PACNet and not taking UT, OU and the gang b/c of LHN meant the PAC was eventually doomed. And here we are........ The FSU stuff is really interesting. If they move, the other football schools will follow and the ACC will crumble as fast as the PAC is. I hadn't read your theory above anywhere before. ESPN is hurting for cash. They are losing subs while the cost of rights keeps going up. Their model is upside down now. If they let the BIG take some of the ACC schools, and the conference crumbles, that's one less media obligation at a time when they need to do a new NBA deal, etc. It could be viable as a way for ESPN to get into business with the BIG again. // What I've read on their 247 board is that they think they have a fraud case against Swofford and the ACC, and that's their way out. Either way, there is a massive amount of smoke around FSU.

I don't think it's panic, because the BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat, just like the B12 would take UW and UO, even if it means they go to 18. FSU supposedly is on the verge of becoming AAU, but they would get in without it, since the BIG wanted ND for years, and they just got AAU last month. No other school besides ND brings more value to the BIG than FSU- another big brand, BTN $$$ increase, recruiting access, alum engagement in FL. If the BIG brings in FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC and UVA, ND will be coming also, and the BIG now has a Southeast wing. // It could also be that FSU has deal in hand with the BIG but is trying to get the SEC to take them by making a public show of the fact that they're leaving.

I agree with you in a broad sense for CFB in general, but not for those schools going to the SEC. PDX and Seattle are literally in the opposite corner of the country from the old-line SEC schools, most of which have rarely gone further west than TX for OOC games. There's no way Bama, UGA, UF, Tenn, AU, etc are signing up for regular trips to the PNW and Bay Area. Even for UT and OU, those aren't quick flights. The PNW and Bay schools would be dilutive for SEC revenue, and there are no worse cultural fits for the SEC in FBS than Cal, UW, UO and Stanford.

That's what I'm thinking too. It can also give cover to schools that have more reluctant admins to join the exodus. We're seeing in the PAC how the run for the exits starts once fear kicks in. The other plausible explanation is that this is all just kabuki theatre huffing and puffing to get Wake, BC, etc to agree to uneven shares of the media deal. But after everything the FSu people have said over the last 24 hours, their boosters and fans will riot if they just tuck their tails between their legs and go back to the ACC.

This is the other thing that makes me think the leaks about BIG looking at UW, UO, Stanford, Cal are disinformation. FSU, Clemson, and Miami have more value for tv ratings, BTN and recruiting. Plus, it forces ND to the BIG. The BIG can add the PNW and Bay area schools anytime in the future- the SEC won't expand that far west. Why would the BIG add PAC schools now, before seeing what happens in the ACC ? The real baller move here is if the BIG is floating the PAC stuff as a distraction, while they prepare to do a surgical strike and add ACC schools in silence. While the CFB media was focused on NIL last June, the BIG was getting ready to add USC and UCLA. Adding FSU and Clemson in the next two weeks while the media is focused on the PAC schools would be right out of the BIG's expansion playbook. From the way FSU is acting, it sure seems like they have a deal with BIG or SEC already lined up.

Not sure I've ever seen a statement like that from a conference. The leaks could easily be coming from Petiti himself, or at his direction. Who is he getting his direction from ? He used to work at ABC and CBS. He's got relationships all over the business. He's also got a tv deal that wasn't closed properly causing some friction with his tv partners. This leak would be a cheap way to help Fox and/or some of his old friends at ABC/ESPN out.

ESPN and Fox are lowballing the PAC to kill it. 4C schools' value is that they are the dominos that need to fall to kill the PAC, and bring enough "After Dark" inventory for the B12 to now be the late-night conference. Once they're in the B12, it also forces UW/UO to the B12 if the BIG says "Thanks bu no thanks".

Agreed. Leaks happen for a reason. Who benefits from this leak ? If you're ESPN/Fox, there's no better way to get the other 4C school to jump than to scare the shit out of them about the PNW and Bay area schools going BIG. By leaking it to Wetzel, Thamel, etc, it amps up what McMurphy and Dodds have been saying for a year, because it's now coming from new sources. I have always thought this was disinformation to destabilize the PAC, and still do. When the BIG has actually added teams over the last 20 years, they have done so in silence. No leaks with NU, RU, MD, USC or UCLA until the deals were done. Now we're getting leaks on a small exploratory group early stage meeting ? I don't buy it. Also, if you add four West Coast schools, that means USC vs OSU, UM and PSU happen less often, unless they only add UW/UO and go to 10 games. Once the 4C schools have gone B12, we'll see the report that the BIG decided they don't want to add anyone else. That forces UW and UO to the B12. ESPN and Fox would get them at $31m each, the B12 becomes even stronger, and has enough late-night inventory for both ESPN and FS1. If I'm wrong, I'll take the L, but I don't think I'm wrong.

CU and UA had the same shift in tone from "We're staying in the PAC." to "We'll be in a good spot no matter what." ASU is gone too, as they should be.

The Chair of the Board of Trustees at FSU said in an interview with Warchant that was linked somewhere itt "The GOR is the least of our worries." He might be a dumbass, but he's far from a rando on the internet.

FSU has to be #2 on the BIG's list behind ND. Same with Fox- top BIG teams vs FSU, Miami, and (maybe Clemson). BTN in FL at in-market rates. CBS and NBC would love it also, as it would mean more top tier games every week for the BIG. With Iger talking about bringing in a strategic partner for ESPN (not a good sign), Fox/BIG may feel like now is the time to strike, while ESPN is weak. And if the strong football brands leave the ACC, that will force ND to the BIG. Lots of motivation for BIG and Fox. // I guess it's possible that the FSU admin all took a massive batch of mind-altering drugs simultaneously and they actually don't have a deal set up already. But the only way I could see that happening is if Klownkoff was the President of FSU.😂

Their lawyers apparently think they have a fraud case against the ACC due to Swofford and the conference knowingly misleading them with false statements and revenue projections. If they really announce a 2024 departure from the ACC in the next two weeks, we're going into realignment overdrive. 2024 already has USC/UCLA and UT/OU on the move. IF FSU and a bunch of other ACC schools go BIG/SEC also, combined with the first year of the 12 team playoff and the WAC10 potentially disintegrating, CFB is going to look like an entirely different world. Wild times.

I dropped cable after the cfb season ended. Still have spectrum for broadband (no other good choices locally for high speed). Wife and I are going to Croatia for five weeks, so I'm canceling the account entirely. Did the same thing the last few years. When we get back, I start over as a new customer b/c it's been more than a month. Get broadband and cable bundle at an intro price. I like having cable during CFB season so when SC is on the road or not playing, I can set up shop and have four games going at once, flipping back and forth between them with no lag, and able to go back and see what I missed on the other games. Never watch a commercial, and on those crazy cfb days when there are a bunch of great games and huge upsets, it's pretty epic to watch everything unfold across the country in different conferences, especially as it gets deeper into the season and playoff spots are on the line.

The exit fee is three times the annual revenue received, so, like the GOR buyout, ND's exit fee will be small because it's only their non-football rights that are involved. It's a completely different world than what FSU and Clemson are looking at. ND would make at least $70m/year in the BIG, but we know there are escalators in the BIG deal specifically for ND, so that base number would be higher. The payout also goes up each year. Compared to the their current deal, they'd be in the black by year 3 even with the exit fee and buying out the GOR. The question is how much is NBC willing to pay them for an ACC-heavy home schedule each year ? The delta between NBC's offer vs what they can make in the BIG (and still have their home games exclusively on NBC as part of the deal to join) is what will determine things. If FSU does actually announce they're leaving in the next two weeks, and that causes a chain reaction, that would shift things heavily in favor of ND to the BIG.

ND can resign from the ACC, then buy their way out of the ACC GOR very cheaply b/c they are non-football members, and the value of their non-football rights doesn't amount to much.

I think it will be top 3 con champs and highest-ranked G5 (or whatever it's called by then) to avoid legal issues, plus 8 at large.

We all know how long the WAC10 has been saying this deal is going to happen and how full of shit Clownzano, Altimore, etc are, but seeing everything listed in that thread takes it to another level entirely. There's such a constant stream of PAC propaganda that I had forgotten Clownzano was predicting a media deal with ESPN and Fox getting done by media day- media day 2022, that is. 🤣 Thanks for posting. That might be the greatest thread I've ever read on twitter. Absolutely beautiful roasting of the WAC propagandists.

Agree on this- there are a lot of scenarios where most of the schools end up in a better position. Good to see you posting SS. Hope you're enjoying your walkabout. We're all just killing time in this thread waiting for you to post some epic national parks pics.

Pathetic pussies. Why would they be apologetic about it ? The answer should have been "Yeah- Delaney was a baller who saw where everything was going and wanted a coast to coast conference." In truth, when the BIG added RU and MD, I thought going coast to coast was the eventual plan. Just wasn't sure on the timeframe and whether Warren had the stones to do it. Glad it became reality. Can't wait to play in the BIG- it's going to be a blast, with some epic games.

Yeah- he has a low-key, just the facts style of reporting, which is a nice change from the hucksters like Swaim and the propagandists like Wilner and Clownzano. Jason has made it clear in their realignment thread (which is very good btw) that UA is going B12 and that Robbins' public statements are posturing for political purposes, just like CU's were. // Speaking of public posturing, I was surprised how many months it took for the tone to change, but once the CU/UA Presidents and ADs went from "We're staying in the PAC" to "We'd like to stay in the PAC, but we need to do what's best for CU/UA" you knew the B12 move was happening. Once UA goes, it feels like Utah will have to make the move unless they are completely clueless. They're in a precarious position. ASU is a harder read, because their Pres (Crow) is completely clueless. He was one of Grifter Larry's biggest supporters, and probably loves Klownkoff too.

Stanford was originally supposed to be the second school that went to the BIG with USC, but Fox wanted to lock up the LA market (and lock the PAC out of LA completely) so then UCLA became the partner. Outside of ND, Stanford is the school I'd bet the most money on getting into the BIG. ND will want Stanford as their partner to join, which would allow the BIG Presidents to add them without losing revenue in the process. BIG would be thrilled with that scenario for all the reasons you listed above. USC people are looking forward to it happening, as they're actually the school we have the longest history with, and fans love going to games in Palo Alto (myself included). The stadium is usually 50% SC fans, so it's like an extra home game. They'd be a huge help with travel, as it would guarantee USC one home game every year in CA. Having ND (as a conference game) and Stanford in the BIG is ideal for SC. Most USC people I know are good with the idea of UW in the BIG. Their fans are mostly cool, and they fit the BIG profile in terms of market, research and academics in a way that Eugene Community College and their human trashcan fans don't. I think UW is going to have a tough time because of geography, though. I've said in this thread before that if UW were in VA, they'd be a slamdunk for the BIG, as the BIG is going to prioritize ND and the ACC schools. Only after they know who they're getting from the ACC will they turn back out West to fill in the gaps imo. Now that ASU is AAU, I think they're more appealing to the BIG- slightly bigger market, more BIG alums, faster-growing, better recruiting, easier travel for BIG schools, and ASU actually helps the LA schools with travel. Also an attractive travel destination for BIG admin and fans in late fall and winter. I don't think it's a coincidence that they got AAU along with ND and Miami. Depending on how the BIG does with their ACC targets, there may be none or only one spot left, so UW could fall victim to unfavorable geography. For USC folks, beyond helping with travel for the team, if you've ever been to ASU when you were single, it's a trip you want to repeat, so most people I know like the idea of ASU coming in eventually. ASU is probably preferred over UW by most, but people would be fine if UW was added. As for the late night games, I think you're looking at it the wrong way. The chances of "BIG after dark" are actually much greater if there are a bunch of West Coast schools than there are with just the LA schools. The BIG schools don't want to play in those timeslots, and the BIG didn't add USC to air our games when 3/4 of the country is no longer watching. One more reason USC people don't want a lot of West Coast schools added.

VT and NC State would actually fit in well culturally to the SEC. Both have die-hard fans and Lane stadium is a great environment. Money for SECNet and a direct recruiting presence for SEC schools in those states would also be beneficial. And neither program would actually threaten the top dogs in the SEC. They would be like South Carolina, but with more value and better recruiting grounds.

I had the same thought as soon as I read it. It's the way you'd actually be looking at this if you were the BIG, given their long-term demographics issues. It also lines up with pretty much everything I've been predicting about future BIG expansion, so there's no cognitive dissonance. 😀

BIG expansion info from a poster on the PSU 247 board who seems to be connected and is well-respected by their board: