USC Traveler

Really good points across the board here. The only thing I would disagree with is that if I was the B12, I'd give schools a reasonable out clause to go to the BIG/SEC. That way you can easily consolidate the "best of the rest", most of whom will never get into the BIG/SEC anyway. It would allow the B12 to strike a death blow on the PAC and, eventually, the ACC, as it would ensure that it's the place to land for schools like UL and Pitt.

You should listen to the first 15 minutes of that FSU podcast that I posted the link for a page or two back. Feels very different this time around.

Thamel, Feldman, Olson, etc have all reported multiple times that the PNW schools would be dilutive. And unless they change the playoff to 12 at-large berths (possible), the math of the 12 team/ 6 champ format means the BIG and SEC will get 3 in most years, but not more. That means if UO or UW make the playoff, they are taking a spot away from an existing BIG team. They're not adding playoff spots- they're taking them away. BIG will already dominate the West Coast media attention through USC, UCLA and existing BIG schools playing out West on a regular basis. The PNW schools don't help the LA schools with travel and make all existing BIG members travel out West twice as often, but with no boost in recruiting or alum engagement. All in all- less money for BIG schools, travel to the PNW, less games on linear for mid-lower tier BIG teams, more playoff competition for BIG teams. Even if all of that wasn't the case, why would the BIG add PNW schools now and take up valuable slots before seeing what happens in the ACC ? They won't. 2036 isn't far away in realignment terms, and there is real smoke around FSU doing something as early two weeks from now. // You might have missed my earlier post to you about a bet for a burger and a beer at a future UT-USC game that Stanford will be in the BIG before UO. I'll go you one better- I'll bet you that ND, Stanford and some ACC schools all get into the BIG before UO. I think I'll win because I doubt UO is ever getting into the BIG.

Iswydt- outstanding work! I loved the whole post obviously. Hope to see you guys in the playoffs soon. Would be an epic rematch. That Rose Bowl is still the most-watched CFB game in history.

FSU podcast- first 10 minutes is very good, with the 247 guy who dropped the nugget about them leaving the ACC. He's definitely not a kook or a fraud like the realignment hucksters. Well worth a listen. On The Bench: An FSU football podcast network- Is FSU’s time in the ACC nearing an end? On The Bench begins with 10 minutes of Chris Nee diving into his report on Noles247 about Florida State's exploration of leaving the ACC. He details the reasoning of the timing of his report, why he believe things are escalating when it comes to FSU/realignment, and the possible risks and factors involved if FSU were to indeed make a jump. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-bench-an-fsu-football-podcast-network/id1215365810?i=1000622649897

Massive shift in tone on the UW, UO and Utah boards. They all were overwhelmingly “go to BIG or stay in the PAC” until yesterday. Now the dam has broken and strong sentiment on all 3 is “Go B12.” There are some UW and UO holdouts wanting only BIG or stay in PAC, and some delusional Zeros fans talking about going independent, but the ground has shifted massively. On Utah 247, the shift has been multiple orders of magnitude. They went from despising everything about B12 to desperately wanting the B12, realizing they could get completely hosed if they don’t make a move quickly. Incredible to see that kind of shift that quickly.

You got that right! 😂

There’s genuine bad blood there, and it goes way beyond the stuff that’s already been posted. All it takes is one trip to a game at Eugene Community College dealing with a stadium full of meth-head Zeros fans to understand. In addition to previously stated reasons, we want to fuck the Zeros over in every way possible because it’s a parasitic institution that led the charge to siphon off revenue from USC on PAC media deals, while having the worst fans (by far) of any place I’ve ever been to, and I’ve been to games in Auburn, Clemson, UGA and South Carolina. USC people despise Eugene Community College and have no respect for the institution. As opposed to ND and UCLA, both of which can do major damage in CA recruiting with the right coach, but which are institutions worthy of respect that we enjoy playing. From being on Shaggy/Surly over the years, I would equate how USC people feel about the Zeros to the way a lot of UT fans feel about Baylor.

Agree with all of this 100%. AAU was a game-changer for ASU. They’re not a top tier BIG option, but for the reasons you listed, I think they’ll be at the top of the BIG’s backup plan list in the West if they need a filler school to round things out after ND, Stanford and whatever ACC schools are added. Also- lots of BIG alums in PHX and it’s going to be a top 10 market fairly soon given where it is now and how fast it’s growing.

Just drove up to pick up a new passport and was listening to PAC12 Sirius channel. You know it’s bad when state-run media (I think both hosts are Utah guys) are absolutely savaging Klownkoff. After months of mostly toeing the party line, these guys sound like they finally read this thread and figured out Klownkoff was an empty suit, there is no deal, they screwed up repeatedly with not taking B12 schools, etc, etc. Everything they said was spot on, and has never been heard on PAC12 radio before now, at least when I’ve been listening. This is a massive shift in tone. Is Klownkoff finally going to get the axe, or has Utah’s President realized he needs to make a B12 move asap and is laying the media groundwork through these two alums ?

This is 100% true, which is why the Zeros are still on the outside looking in after begging for a year to get in. Does USC and UCLA lobbying help at the margins ? Sure. But if UO had ND’s brand it wouldn’t matter. But the reason two people posted about it was because you thought it was weak that USC doesn’t want the Zeros in the BIG. We were just trying to give you the background. ok, back to how bad PAC leadership has always been….

Correct- ND cares about ND. They don’t play Stanford out of charity. They play Stanford every year b/c they want to end the season in CA every year for recruiting and exposure to alums, and because they like being associated with Stanford’s academic standing. They will want that to continue as a conference game, and they will want to be announced to be joining the BIG with Stanford to draft off Stanford’s academic rep.

It's true, but imo that's because there was such a big drop-off in tv value from UT and OU to the rest of the B12, and from USC to the rest of the PAC. As opposed to the SEC, with Bama, UGA, LSU, UF, Auburn and Tenn all bringing ratings. Same with the BIG- OSU and UM are the big dogs, but PSU, Wiscy, Iowa, MSU, NU all bring ratings. The PAC schools never took the threat of USC leaving seriously because the PAC Presidents have collectively been clueless for decades. They never understood CFB is a business. Stanford rejecting the addition of UT back in the day is a prime example. All of the schools not named USC and UCLA rejecting the LHN b/c of equal revenue sharing is another. Same with not partnering with ESPN/FOX on PACNet. Ironic that the weak sisters in the PAC killed the conference because of their demand for equal revenue, and now they'll end up with much less than they would have gotten had they approved a tier 3 structure like the B12 had. PAC16 would have been competitive with the SEC and the BIG. Now, the PAC schools that don't make it into the B12 will be making MWC money. Karma is a bitch.

USC isn't worried about the Eugene Zeros beating them on the field. It's about beating Bama and UGA. USC can do that when dominant. We saw it in the '70s and the 2000s. But with the talent more concentrated in the Southeast and TX now, in order to consistently compete with the top of the SEC, USC needs to get almost every bluechip player from CA and the Rockies, then supplement with some players from TX, FL, GA, etc, and maybe some midwestern linemen. Every player that goes to the Zeros is one less player that will be on the roster for USC. It's about winning national titles, which is a zero sum game. You do whatever you need to do to compete at the very top. // Also- it's personal with UO. USC big cigars wants to obliterate the Zeros program the way Rome obliterated Carthage after the Third Punic War. The Zeros had a rep on the NZAA kangaroo court who voted to crush USC because Reggie Bush's family got a rent-free house from a wannabe agent who was trying to get him to leave school early. It was the opposite of pay for play- it was pay to leave. The Zeros voted to try to kill SC's program to boost their own program, and it worked for a while, with a huge assist from USC ineptitude and self-sanctioning. Those days are over. Also #2- UO and UW led the charge to force equal revenue-sharing on USC and UCLA, which also led to UT, OU, OSU, Tech not coming to the PAC b/c of LHN. Once USC left, UO and UW have been pushing for........unequal revenue sharing. I speak for a lot of USC folks when I say Fuck the Zeros.

ND is going to bring Stanford in with them. There's a reason they play them every year, and the BIG will let ND bring in whoever they want as a partner. USC and UCLA will strongly support it, whereas they've lobbied against the PNW schools from day 1. The BIG Presidents would love to add Stanford, and if they come in with ND, they will all still make more money because ND brings so much value. All the BIG schools want to recruit CA more and engage with their massive alum base in the Bay Area. Bay Area will also bring in big $$$ for BTN, and getting Stanford into their research consortium would be a huge coup. None of those things apply to UO. It's the exact opposite situation in all those categories- bad recruiting, small market, weak academics, no BIG alums nearby. And to top it all off, for the lower and mid-tier BIG schools, Stanford is a school they can compete against, whereas most will lose to UO. And not even the big dogs in the BIG want to deal with Nike-funded hyper-aggressive NIL recruiting as a part of their conference.

In a worst case, they aren't able to settle it out and have no tv revenue from home games until 2036. If they come into the BIG at a half share (no home games), they'd still make about the same (at first) and then substantially more (over time) tv money than if they stayed in the ACC. Home attendance should go up substantially along with donations, merch sales, etc. The difference in revenue should be large enough to make it work, especially if they use the excitement of the conference move to get their big cigars writing much bigger checks than usual. BIG could also help them with a loan the way they helped MD and Rutgers. It would have been a lot better to do this in the ultra-low interest rate environment we were in for years, but, like most of the ACC and PAC schools, FSU's leaders haven't ever had great forward vision.

I agree 100% with your strategic thinking andthat Sankey will want FSU. Individual SEC schools recruit vs FSU? I've got real doubts. More importantly, ESPN won't want to pay 2-3 times more for FSU in the SEC vs ACC over the next 13 years when they're desperate for cash. The networks are who are driving all of this, and it goes against ESPN's interest to bring in FSU. Fox will be very motivated though.

This is what they're being fed by the B12 to up the pressure on UA, ASU and Utah. They're trying to increase FOMO to start the stampede for the exits. ESPN will still pay for 16, as it will give them enough teams for B12 after dark window. And if they get UW and/or UO in the process ? Home run. I still think they'll go to 18 if they get 4C and then UW and UO want to join. ESPN/Fox/B12/ Endeavor/Yormark have been brilliant with their use of media sources to wage the disinformation war.

Yeah- I was thinking $300m to settle it all out, but was hitting the wall last night and "multi hundred million dollar question" didn't sound good. You're right, though- it's more like $500m if there's no settlement. Interestingly, on FSU 247 today, there was a guy posting that FSU is meeting on 8-2 to authorize a bond issue that would help cover the costs. Will be interesting to see what happens, but 8-2 isn't a Tuesday, so nothing big will happen, right ?

I'll make you a friendly wager that Stanford gets into the BIG before UO does. How about a burger and a beer at a future USC-UT game ? It will be fun to talk CFB history with you either way.

That's the hundred million dollar question.

If FSU gets out, I’d expect it to be them and Miami. BIG will get UVA and UNC also imo, so now to you have a Southeast wing.

The BIG would take FSU in a heartbeat. Outside of ND, they’re the most additive school out there for the BIG. FSU is the best non-ND brand left out there. Getting BTN in-market rates in FL would be huge. Recruiting for both athletes and regular students for BIG schools would be a huge win for the BIG schools, most of which are in declining or slow growth states. Pair them with Miami and BIG schools can engage with BIG alums in FL on a regular basis. FSU and Miami would be a grand slam for the BIG, and Fox would absolutely want them in the BIG. Plus, that would start the dominoes falling in the ACC, which would bring ND into the BIG. // For the reasons you point out, it’s not the same with the SEC for those schools. ESPN has no motivation to move them to SEC. What better time for Fox/BIG to strike and get the best of the ACC into the BIG than when ESPN is weak ? You’ll also have SEC schools that would rather recruit against FSU and Miami as BIG members than bring them into the SEC, which would make them tougher competition in recruiting. Bottom line- BIG has a demographics problem that expansion in FL and the Southeast helps solve. FSU has to be their #2 target after ND.

@Hurtlocker Insider's name is Chris Nee. He's on their 247 staff. Reading the reactions on the FSU board, they are all taking this to mean it's happening, as their insider apparently only drops things that are rock solid. 450 upvotes and they're celebrating like they just won a national title.

I've always said realignment is CFB Game of Thrones. We're going to see it play out over the next couple of months. Will fomo push the 4C schools to jump first, or will the PNW schools realize they're better off in the B12 playing higher profile games in better windows with more exposure ? If you get the 4C schools to jump, you take them, as that truly kills the PAC, and UW and UO would still be worth adding and going to 18.