USC Traveler

Going full circle back to the Shaggy days, this nugget dropped today from FSU 247 insider:

I agree if you can get them first. But if you can't get the PNW schools after UA, it would be worth going bigger to end the PAC. ASU and UU will be harder to poach than UA. They want the academic association with Stanford/Cal, and a zombie PAC can survive with PNW, Bay Area, Utah, ASU and filler. They'll convince themselves that easier playoff access will be worth lower money and visibility. If you're the B12, do what you need to do to kill the PAC now, even if it means going to 20. (Assuming ESPN and Fox would pay for it.)

Not coincidental that Dodd is now finally admitting that the BIG doesn't want the PNW schools. He and McMurphy (at the behest of ESPN/Fox/B12) have been pushing the "UW and UO to the BIG" bs for a year to make the 4C schools nervous. But now that CU has jumped, we're in a "How many seats are there in the lifeboat ?" scenario, and the threat of UW and UO jumping to the B12 is now a bigger club to scare the other 4C into jumping first to lock up their spot than the threat of the PNW schools going BIG is.

If you're the B12, you do what you need to do to kill the PAC once and for all. And given how spread out the conference would be, 20 teams divided into four divisions gives you much easier travel for Olympic sports.

With you on this except I'd put UA on top. Not because they're more valuable, but because they've been the most receptive besides CU and you are the furthest down the road with them. Most importantly, if they jump in the next week or two, the fear factor on all the other campuses jumps up exponentially, and sets up the endgame to reel in the PNW schools. // Side note- I'd also offer to bring in all of them besides WSU and OSU. Stanford would probably pass, but Cal will be desperate. UW and UO will want CA recruiting, so you could say you'll add SDSU and make it a B20 with Cal and SDSU to entice the PNW schools. That would give you enough PT inventory to run B20 after dark on Fri and Sat after the primetime games all year long.

Good to see you in here md- jut like the old days on the Shag. Speaking of which, the PAC went away when we were all posting in the old Shaggy thread- when Champagne Larry and the Presidents decided not to partner with ESPN or FOX, forced equal revenue sharing on USC and UCLA, then wouldn't let UT bring the LHN to the PAC and rejected OU and the rest of the gang from joining. USC and UCLA leaving was the death blow. This conference has been a brain dead zombie for over a year, led by a brain dead clown. Good riddance to a shit conference. // I agree with you 100% about what the B12 should do. UA will join. Get that closed. Go after UW and Uo, and if they aren't ready to jump, get ASU and Utah to jump, which will force the PNW to join also. Three pods of six teams each would be fun. Then get UL, Pitt and other solid ACC leftovers when ACC dissolves.

Over the last 15 years, when you exclude games against ND and all 2024 BIG/SEC members, UO, UW and Stanford are all in a similar tier. They’re below FSU, Clemson and Miami, and not that much above Wazzu, which overperformed under Leach. UO has scheduled a lot of SEC teams plus OSU ooc during that time, which helps boost their ratings. They’re not additive to the BIG and don’t have any internal support. BIG priorities: ND, then the ACC.

President of NW was recently hired away from Eugene Community College, so he’s been a big part of the PAC stupidity himself.

Winner winner chicken dinner. There’s a lot of delusion and magical thinking in places like Eugene.

UA is next. From Jason Scheer in their realignment thread on the 247 board: They've always been the most likely second team to leave, based on the change in tone from their Pres and AD a few moths back. They went from "We're committed to the PAC" to "We have to do what's best for UA". Same shift in tone we saw at CU. // Can't wait to see the ripple effects, as even the delusional idiots on the Utah 247 board are starting to realize their "insider" knows nothing and that they're in real danger of being left behind. Panic is going to set in quickly, and schools that have been opposed to moving like ASU and Utah, may reverse course quickly and jump to the B12 to make sure they get a seat at the table. If I'm B12, I take Utah and ASU, as that would pretty much force UO and UW to the B12. PNW schools aren't getting a BIG invite until the ACC is carved up and the BIG sees where they stand. BIG's preference is to expand East. 18 team B12 would set up some good regional divisions, especially once B12 picks up the best ACC programs that don't go BIG/SEC when the ACC collapses.

That was always Yormark/B12/ESPN/Fox throwing out disinformation through Dodds and McMurphy to make the Four Corners schools nervous and keep the WAC10 unstable. The only person in the BIG who wanted more teams in the West was Kevin Warren. That's part of why he's gone.

Clearly, Klownkoff never read Wilner's article, as the PAC would be in exponentially better shape if he had. Wilner was an actual journalist back then who had some very good ideas. Also from the Wilner piece, I brought this idea up the other day, and it's really bad news for the PAC: With USC and UCLA gone and cord cutting running rampant, how do you think the WACNet carriage renewal negotiations are going with the MSOs like Comcast and Charter ? Not good- not good at all. The idiotic Presidents who enabled Champagne Larry and have trusted Klownkoff have really dug their own graves.

100% correct on Klownkoff's strategy. He was brought in with one job- land the next media deal. He's failed miserably because he misread USC's intentions (despite public statements from the AD about those intentions), and he misread the PAC's value during the initial negotiations with ESPN and Fox. Now he's trying to salvage his career by stalling until a couple of schools leave, then blame them leaving as the reason he couldn't get a deal done. "We had a great deal lined up that we were just about to close until CU and UA left......." The PAC Presidents have never seen an actual deal. They just repeat whatever Klownkoff tells them. According to the Athletic, only one other person is in the room with him from the PAC side for the meetings with media companies. That would be his old college buddy who is completely unqualified for the job, and who is 100% loyal to Klownkoff. The PAC Presidents are getting played yet again by a total grifter feeding them BS, and he's going to keep this going as long as possible. What a bunch of rubes. At least now we know that Klownkoff, like Larry Scott, is good at one thing. // Rose Bowl gave up the ghost a few months ago. They're going to just be part of the playoff moving forward. I think we could see the Rose and Sugar as permanent semifinal playoff games once schools realize they want to play the quarterfinals on campus.

Agreed, and there's also an internal CU component. At least judging by their 247 board, a majority of their fans don't want to go back to the B12, so CU's admin is going to want to portray this as a move of necessity where they didn't have a choice. Side note- most of that same majority of their fans on the 247 board are also completely delusional. The realists all want to go B12.

Klownkoff: We are not announcing our media rights deal on purpose today because we want the focus to be on football. Reporter: To be clear, that would imply that the deal is done and codified, and you're just waiting until after today. Klownkoff: I think you're reading too much into that. 😂😂😂 What an idiot. He had eight months to get ready for this press conference, and he manages to expose himself yet again as a total fraud/empty suit in less than 10 minutes. You couldn't script this level of stupidity if you tried- you just can't make this up!!! 🤣

Canzano doesn't type anymore. He's got a generative AI anal implant that allows his info to get transmitted directly from the source to his blog.

Kudos to you HL- this is a really good point that no one else is talking about. BTN has real value because it's tied to the BIG. With the BIG having added USC and UCLA, I agree that the WAC10's best option to increase their media value would be to make all their games available. Unless they get Apple or someone else to buy the network assets as part of a media deal, the key question is (obviously) how much is PACN worth as a distribution outlet that is disconnected from the PAC in a world where cable is rapidly declining ? Also- were the original distribution deals that Grifter Larry cut with Comcast, Spectrum, etc tied to the PAC media contract ? Are they up for renewal next year ? I don't think there's a lot of value in the network either with or without PAC games involved, but it is worth something. How much ? // Let's say CU and UA make the move to the B12, which causes the PAC media deal to become even worse, to a point that the other 4C schools jump. UO and UW say they'll come too, but they want to bring along Cal and SDSU for recruiting. B12 says yes. At that point, PACN has no real value connected to a CFB media deal. It would be worth whatever it's worth as a standalone entity. That amount might be so small that none of the schools that have left have really given up very much.

I had a feeling that was the case. 🤘 Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming. The PAC10 Presidents released a statement that all 10 schools are unified and look forward to consummating a successful media rights deal in the very near future. Unfortunately, that statement was issued on February 13th, more than five months ago.😂

With ASU gaining AAU status at the same time as ND and Miami, it just feels like there's too much there to be coincidental. Either way, I can't see UA ever getting into the BIG now that ASU also is an AAU school, with all the BIG alums, potential recruits and students in PHX, plus the fact that it's a much bigger tv market.

Agreed on Stanford (especially as a partner with ND). UW-ASU is an interesting debate, as UW checks all the boxes except recruiting and travel. But with ASU now AAU, they are more attractive on many levels than the Zeros from Eugene Community College. PHX is the #11 tv market in the US and is growing faster than almost any other top 15 market, except possibly Tampa. PHX will be top 10 eventually. It dwarfs Eugene and is almost twice the size of Portland. Large population of BIG alums, midwest transplants and snowbirds in the PHX area (infinitely more than Eugene/PDX). Very good recruiting in AZ- exponentially better than OR. ASU generates 5x the research $$ as the Zeros. And as you know, unlike the PNW schools, ASU, like Stanford, actually would help USC and UCLA with travel. PHX is also closer to existing BIG schools, has more flights, and is a very attractive place to visit for BIG schools/admin/fans. I also don't think it's coincidental that ASU got the votes to join AAU at the same time as ND and Miami. BIG schools have a lot of pull in the AAU. // We are in agreement that any non-Stanford PAC possibilities for the BIG only come into play once the ACC has been carved up. The BIG could stop at 18 with ND and Stanford, or at 20 with those two plus two of UNC, UVA, and Miami. The only ways I see more PAC schools coming into play would be either the BIG striking out on ACC schools (unlikely), or they get to 21 or 22 and want to add two more to get to 24 and use divisions. Let's say over the next 10-12 years, BIG adds ND, Stanford, UNC, UVA, and Miami. That would be 21 teams. Let's say it's 50/50 on whether the SEC will add FSU. BIG adding FSU would be 22 teams. At that point, BIG probably goes to 24 and uses a pod structure for scheduling. GT could be a consideration, and UVA/UNC might use their leverage to bring Duke along. If the BIG passes on GT and Duke and looks to add two or three teams from the West as the final teams, ASU would be a legit candidate. There's multiple scenarios where ASU gets added over the Zeros at that point. There's a possibility the BIG stops at 20 or 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 team BIG with a West pod of USC, ND, UCLA and Stanford, or a West division of USC, UCLA, Stanford, ASU, UW and CU. (Large population of BIG alums in Denver, #17 tv market in US and brings back NU-CU rivalry.)

"I've got a secret and I'm not telling you. Nah nah nah nah nah!" 😂 It's literally laughable.

I forgot about an important piece of info. USC and UCLA aren't joining the BIG until August 2nd, 2024. That matches up with the docs that you had previously pulled about the fiscal year ending 7-31. For whatever reason, the 6/30 date was applicable to giving two years notice, but it doesn't match up with the exit date from the conference. With no acceptable media deal, no signed GOR, and no certainty that the conference will exist past 7-31-24, I don't see how the PAC would be able to force schools to stay. I'm still looking at the 10 days between WAC10 media day and 7-31 to see departure announcements from CU and UA.

Your memory is correct. That is what was reported. What wasn't making sense to me was that 6/30 of this year didn't seem to have any effect on the other schools, but maybe the 6/30/22 date was the only thing that was specified in the bylaws, so everything from here on out is uncharted territory with the PAC on the brink of collapse. I agree with you that CU and UA are probably waiting until after the upcoming media days fiasco to announce that they're out to give them cover with stakeholders who don't want to move. Because you know Klownkoff's speech is going to be something along the lines of "We are engaged in productive talks with media rights partners that are nearing fruition on a package that all of our members are going to be thrilled with, but I can't divulge any of the details due to NDAs with the parties involved. What I can say is that the members of this conference has never been more united."

I think HL has figured it out correctly. There was some reporting when USC and UCLA left that they had to give the PAC notice 2 years ahead of time, but that doesn't ring true based on the docs that we've seen HL pull and the fact that no PAC school made a move before 6-30 of this year. All eyes on 7-31. I'll be shocked if CU doesn't make the move, and surprised if UA doesn't follow.

I agree with you both. Miami, Clemson, FSU, UO, UW all bring some level of tv value but not at a UT/USC level, so they fall into a larger group of potential targets, including UNC, UVA, Stanford, ASU and (maybe, possibly) GT and CU. This is where "everything else" comes into play, and tv value becomes one metric, part of a puzzle with recruiting grounds (for athletes and students), alumni engagement possibilities, academic and cultural fit, ease of travel and desire for fans and admin to visit. Even tv value has multiple components, as market size, conference network value and presence of tv partner owned and operated stations are all factors. That's why Bob Thompson (Oregon grad) rated Stanford as more valuable for tv than UW or UO- the Farm's tv ratings since 2010 are close to UO and UW's ratings, but the market size, etc make them more valuable. The BIG has a different set of priorities than the SEC, which makes it even more interesting. Adding Miami and FSU would be home runs for the BIG because of of all the other reasons, even if their tv ratings alone wouldn't make them additive. They're much less additive for the SEC, given that UF is already there and that SEC schools are all in states that are growing. UNC and UVA bring less tv value, but they would bring value to BTN of SECN and score highly on the other metrics. Most importantly for the BIG in the long run, would bring existing BIG schools a lot of value as fast-growing, populous feeder states for students and great recruiting grounds for BIG schools. I've said it before, but if UW was located in VA, they'd be a slamdunk for the BIG with their athletics, academics and research. Their location in the PNW is the biggest thing holding them back. UO doesn't bring much in any of the "everything else" categories, and the non-ratings components of their tv value aren't great. Combined with their location, that's why I think they'll have real trouble getting a BIG invite vs ASU, which brings much, much more to the table in the "everything else" categories. All of that said, I don't think anything happens with existing PAC schools (except Stanford coming in with ND) until after the ACC has been carved up. The SEC doesn't want PAC schools, and the BIG has no reason to add more PAC schools until they see who they get from the ACC.