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Do you and your spouse sleep in a separate room?
Bevo replied to Im_smarter_then_you's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
Don't care - have sex - on occasion. -
We say Russia has 1.5 million troops, although I find that hard to believe. https://crsreports.congress.gov Updated October 10, 2024 Russian Military Performance and Outlook Despite advantages of a larger recruitment base and defense industrial capacity, the Russian military has been unable to decisively defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. Its performance arguably has been hindered by a rigid command and control structure, a weakened corps of trained and professional units, and a reliance on tactics with high casualty rates. The Russian military, however, remains a resilient and capable adversary and continues to make steady progress capturing territory in Ukraine. It appears likely to sustain its operational tempo for the immediate future. Since 2022, Congress has supported Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s renewed invasion. Members may consider the Russian military’s condition and performance as they evaluate the state of the war, assess the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions on Russia and assistance to Ukraine, and deliberate about whether to appropriate further military or other assistance for Ukraine. Command and Control Despite attempted reforms to increase lower-level leadership and autonomy, the Russian military continues to operate with a Soviet-style centralized command. This command style at the tactical level often has contributed to the types of inflexible operations that contributed to previous failures and casualties. In May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with civilian economist Andrei Belousov. This change came after persistent criticism of the defense leadership and poor performance of the Russian military. Some observers note that Belousov’s appointment reflects a recognition by the Russian leadership that the war in Ukraine is a longer-term challenge and that managing economic and defense industrial resources may be crucial to sustaining Russia’s war effort. President Putin did not replace Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, possibly out of concern that doing so could provoke instability among the military leadership. Some observers argue that Russia’s leadership prioritizes the perceived political loyalty of officers over their battlefield effectiveness. Multiple Russian military leaders, including some reported to be among the most competent, have been relieved of command, apparently for perceived criticism of, or insufficient loyalty to, Russian political leaders. Nevertheless, the Russian military leadership remains a cohesive force. It has gradually consolidated various semi-independent security force units and organizations fighting for Russia and brought them under its central command. Additionally, the Russian military leadership has proven capable of adaptation and of implementing changes in force structure, operations, and equipment since the 2022 invasion. Observers continue to debate the speed and breadth of these changes, as reforms in some cases appear isolated to addressing specific problems or implemented after extended debate that leads to delays. Personnel Recruiting sufficient troops remains a key challenge for Russia’s leadership. Continued casualties and challenges fielding well-trained troops have hindered, but not stopped, Russian military operations. Casualties In October 2024, U.S. officials stated that Russia has suffered at least 600,000 killed or wounded. That estimate, however, is possibly low given recent fighting and continued Russian losses. These rates arguably reflect the continued use of tactics that resulted in high casualty rates in the past, including a reliance on massed personnel attacks, massed artillery fire, and limited operational-level flexibility. Casualty totals likely include mobilized personnel, volunteers, National Guard, recruited prison convicts, and personnel from Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions. The loss of experienced soldiers has been particularly detrimental to the Russian military’s effectiveness and capability. Many of Russia’s casualties have been among elite and professional soldiers, as well as the junior officer corps. New recruits, including new junior officers, often have less training than those they are replacing, exacerbating the impact of the losses and apparently eroding the effectiveness of some Russian military units. Some observers say the loss of such experienced troops will have a long-term detrimental effect on Russian military capabilities. Recruitment and Mobilization In September 2024, President Putin increased the size of the military to 1.5 million active-duty troops. Russia’s draft budget for 2025-2027 allocates 30 billion rubles ($315 million at current exchange rates) annually for sign-on bonuses for new recruits. Russian authorities announced a mobilization of 300,000 personnel in September 2022 but have yet to announce another large-scale mobilization, likely due at least in part to domestic politicalconsiderations. Russian Military Performance and Outlook https://crsreports.congress.gov Russian law prohibits the deployment of conscripts to combat, forcing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to prioritize recruitment of contract soldiers. The MoD salaries that can be several times the average Russian monthly wage (including sign on bonuses, as high as 22 times the monthly wage), as well as bonuses and payments should soldiers be killed or wounded. Volunteers in units formed by local authorities and mercenary units reportedly receive the same pay and benefits. In addition, Russia continues to recruit prisoners with a promise of amnesty, but these recruitment rates reportedly have declined. The MoD also employs more coercive recruitment methods, including increased penalties for ignoring draft summons, pressure on conscripts to sign contracts, and punishments for canceling contracts. In addition, Russia has instituted a number of “stop-loss” policies to prohibit soldiers from resigning and bolster the number of soldiers available. Russia likely continues to recruit sufficient personnel, with some observers estimating 20,000-30,000 new recruits a month, to replenish and rotate units for operations in Ukraine. In July 2024, Russian officials stated that almost 200,000 people had signed contracts since the beginning of the year. Some observers assert these figures are exaggerated and do not accurately reflect the often ad hoc nature of current Russian military recruitment. The bonuses and payments for new recruits also have risen, possibly suggesting increased difficulties with recruitment. Additionally, reports suggest the training of recruits is often substandard and rushed, undermining the Russian military’s ability to conduct complex offensive operations. Equipment and Ammunition In addition to inflicting heavy personnel losses on the Russian military, the UAF has destroyed large quantities of Russian equipment, including tanks (according to some open-source estimates, Russia has lost more tanks than its entire pre-war active duty force), armored personnel carriers, artillery and rocket systems, helicopters, and naval vessels. Russia has responded to those losses by mobilizing its economy to support the war effort. Among other actions, it has directed civilian enterprises to produce products with military applications, has transitioned the defense industry to round-the-clock production, and plans to spend 40% of the 2025 federal budget on the military and security services (an increase of 25% from 2024). Russia also has received assistance from Iran and North Korea. Such efforts have contributed to the Russian defense industry’s resilience in the face of sanctions restricting the import of critical components. U.S. and other Western officials state that China is a crucial source of components for Russia’s defense industry. Russia has continued to increase its production capacity and output—including substantially scaling up drone production. However, a lack of sufficient components and manufacturing tools, maxed out factory space, and labor shortages, combined with the need to continue producing equipment and ammunition, arguably have forced the Russian defense industry to prioritize quantity over quality. Examples include the use of dual-use items (which are less effective than components designed exclusively for the military) and the reactivation of Soviet-era tanks and artillery. According to some observers, a majority of Russia’s equipment replacements consist of older models refurbished from storage facilities. Currently, Russia’s defense industry appears capable of upgrading and repairing most equipment and weapon systems for current operations, but it is constrained by dwindling stockpiles and maximized production capacity. It remains unclear whether the defense industry can produce advanced weapon systems or increase production over the long term. Current Military Performance and Outlook After several defeats in spring 2023, Russian forces constructed extensive defensive lines in southern Ukraine and stabilized their command situation. Russian forces have resumed localized offensive operations, focusing on eastern Ukraine. Russian operations often retain many of the same characteristics as previous operations that resulted in heavy casualties and limited territorial gains. However, the Russian military has reportedly adjusted its tactics to focus on small unit assaults, improved communication, and improved targeting by Russian artillery. It has deployed new equipment and tactics to counter UAF operations, including the increased use of drones and electronic warfare. Russian logistics also have successfully adapted several times over the course of the conflict in response to improved UAF long-range strike capabilities provided by the United States and other Western allies. This has enabled the Russian military’s strategy of wearing down the UAF in several sectors across the frontline, including capturing the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar in early October 2024. UAF long-range strikes continue to challenge Russian operations, but arguably may be insufficient on their own to halt Russian advances. Russia also continues its own long- range precision strike campaign targeting key Ukrainian military and infrastructure targets, including destroying much of Ukraine’s energy grid. The Biden Administration, allied partners, and the Ukrainian government have warned that recent Russian military successes will continue absent continued U.S. security assistance. Others, including some Members of Congress, assert the UAF cannot defeat the Russian military regardless of U.S. security assistance. Some observers also note the continued presence of some Western components in Russian military equipment, leading some Members of Congress to call for greater oversight of sanctions on Russia’s defense industry. “70% of the machine tools that Russia is importing are coming from China; 90% of the microelectronics that Russia is importing—coming from China. And that’s enabled it to sustain its aggression against Ukraine.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, July 10, 2024 Russian Military Performance and Outlook https://crsreports.congress.gov | IF12606 · VERSION 4 · UPDATED Andrew S. Bowen, Analyst in Russian and European Affairs IF12606
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left field
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Shaw, Charles, Sharma are huge and January looks like he is 40.
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Are you saying certain music sounds better in 7.2 than stereo?
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: They Can't Keep Getting Away With This
Bevo replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Show the numbers just for the Sark era -
I have a theoretical question about the federal layoffs. A friend sold his home and business and relocated his family for a high-level, essential position in the federal government in a non at-will state. From my understanding general layoffs and downsizing are not protected, however, in the state. The first year in federal employment is a probationary period. If the government decided to lay him off within the probationary period simply due to downsizing, would he have any recourse?
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What the fuck is wrong with you, Houston? Non-CR thread
Bevo replied to crash_davis's topic in Daily Texan
Mother of 12-Year-Old Threatens to Shoot Up School March 5, 2025 by David Jones A Texas mother, aged 45, is currently being sought by law enforcement after allegedly threatening to carry out a shooting at her child’s middle school in response to her child being bullied. Cicerly Nicole Walker is facing a felony charge of making a terroristic threat, according to court documents. The incident occurred on January 30, when officers from the Aldine Independent School District Police Department were called to Hoffman Middle School on West Little York Road around 11:30 a.m. The call was in response to an unauthorized person on the school premises. Upon arrival, the officers were briefed by the school’s assistant principal. He reported that a parent, later identified as Walker, had entered the school without permission and was causing a disturbance. Walker reportedly gained access to the school by following a student through a locked door that had been opened by a school clerk. The clerk, realizing Walker was not authorized to be on the premises, promptly alerted the principal. Two 12-year-old students provided statements to the police, describing Walker as causing a disturbance by yelling loudly in the school hallway. The situation escalated when Walker entered the school cafeteria and allegedly threatened the students there. According to one of the 12-year-old students, Walker questioned her and others about bullying her child and threatened to return and carry out a shooting at the school. This statement was corroborated by the other student, who also expressed fear for her life. The students reported that many of their peers were present in the cafeteria when Walker made the alleged threat, causing widespread panic and distress. The school clerk was able to confirm that Walker’s child was a student at the school and provided a photo of Walker. The two 12-year-old students positively identified Walker from the photo as the person who made the threat. A check of Walker’s name in the police system revealed that she had a previous record, including charges of evading arrest, verbal harassment, driving while intoxicated, and unlawful carrying of a weapon. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: They Can't Keep Getting Away With This
Bevo replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
If he drops further. It might make it easier to recruit Ojo and Turntine in the same class. -
I had a patient who went to MD Anderson and had proton therapy with zero side effects.
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Even though I agree with you, what makes this different than Tibet or Georgia or even Crimea?
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Official Coach Sark Thread of Dominance—haters back off
Bevo replied to SimkinsMan's topic in Football
I think he is saying that he is jealous of today”s NIL packages. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: They Can't Keep Getting Away With This
Bevo replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Running back is the most fun position to play, and along with qb get the best chicks. So, there are probably still pretty good incentives for high school students. -
A kid got killed in one of those things recently doing some non FDA approved treatment. The chamber caught fire - It was probably caused by an electrical short. Anyway, I am sure they are pretty safe but they probably are not well regulated.
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You sound pretty fucked up? Do you consider yourself normal, because man…..
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NM - Thought better of it. Lets try sticking to news.
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I’m probably more libertarian than old school Republican. But, I’m not talking about myself anyway - I’m talking more about friends in the Westlake, Memorial, Churchill, Highland Park group. The Dems in that group are very vocal but overall there are many more Republicans than Dems. And of the Republicans, there is a split regarding Ukraine. Remember it wasn’t too long ago that Pubs were very anti-Russia. Shit, Mitt Romney said that Russia was the biggest threat to the US and Obama laughed and said that this isn’t the 80s anymore and conservatives thought Romney was right and liberals thought Obama was right. Now fast forward to today. Whether people want to admit it or not, most people’s views are easy to manipulate. Russia haters one day become Russia lovers the next. It is a mixed up world. Regardless, there are still open minded people out there at least among the highly educated.
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Unfortunately experience shows that this is a common feature among most humans. There are more people who are like the Fonz and will never admit they were wrong. And this is especially true of leaders and type A personalities.
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I don’t know - half the time they jump out of the fucking pot.
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I’d like to hear what is really going on on the ground - I agree that something has changed the dynamics but it is unclear what has changed and what caused the change. I’ve read a decent amount but nothing appears conclusive and assumptions about the apparent Russian weakness need more clarity to feel good about it.
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Sounds like some dirty business with the sanitation department
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I don’t think this is true, but most of the left thinks that it is true. The right is not some singular voice of thought. There are plenty on the right who are slava Ukraine. We will see if that has an effect on Trump, but I doubt it because Trump is hardheaded and always thinks that he is right and is narcissistic enough not to change his views and thus admit that he was wrong. And his supporters may still support him because their reasons for support probably weren’t tied to his position on Ukraine.
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Trump is being played by Putin – Russia will never accept a peace deal Summarize The invasion of Ukraine wrecked Moscow’s finances – but it’s now the Kremlin’s only source of growth Melissa Lawford02 March 2025 6:00am GMT “Vranyo” is a Russian word for a specific type of lying. “I once translated it for one of our ministers as ‘epic, bare-faced whopper that we both know cannot possibly be true, but I’m going to tell you anyway’,” says Sir Laurie Bristow, who was the UK’s ambassador to Russia from January 2016 until January 2020. It is a concept that sits at the heart of Vladimir Putin’s statecraft. And it is about power. “I had it done to me repeatedly in meetings. It’s not necessarily to persuade you that their version is true. It’s to cast doubt on the truth, by putting around so much litter that you kind of lose the will to live, you just become demoralised,” says Sir Laurie. In 2014, for example, after the Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 was hit by a Russian-made Buk missile over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, the Kremlin fed myths to the press. These included first the claim that the plane was shot down by Ukraine, and then a story that the CIA had filled a plane with bodies and crashed it to discredit the state. It is this type of vranyo that has fuelled Russia’s isolation on the world stage. Long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine made Putin an international pariah, Moscow was kept at arm’s length by the West. Donald Trump seems blissfully unaware of Russia’s track record – or at least doesn’t care. He has launched a mission to reset ties with Moscowand promised “to get that war over” in Ukraine. In doing so, he has shocked the international community by upending Western foreign policy, reopening ties with the Russian president and ruling out offering US security guarantees or Nato membership for Ukraine. After he met with Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, on Thursday, Trump told reporters that Putin would “keep his word” if a peace deal is secured. But even a peace deal in Putin’s favour would not get around the fact that Russia has become economically and ideologically addicted to war. Russia’s economy is creaking under the weight of war, wracked by labour shortages, sanctions, high inflation and record interest rates. But equally, the conflict is its only remaining engine of growth. After three years of war, nationalist anti-Western propaganda has also become the basis of Putin’s power. “Putin does not want peace and he’s not going to settle,” says Simon Johnson, MIT professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “He’s enjoying the war. It’s awful. But he doesn’t want to end the war.” Trump believes forging economic links with Ukraine will be enough to deter future conflict. But a peace deal will not quell the imperialist fire in Putin’s belly. “Trump is greatly deceived by Mr Putin,” says Johnson. “Trump wants a quick victory. He wants a triumph and a show and Putin is going to play him along. He’s being played.” War machine Russia is hooked on military spending. In 2019, Russia spent 5 trillion roubles (£45bn) on defence and security combined, or 28pc of its total government spending. This year, in nominal terms, the bill will be 17 trillion roubles – 41pc of all government spending. The war economy now makes up between 8pc and 10pc of Russia’s GDP. “For a country that is waging a war not on its own soil, that is a lot,” says Alexander Kolyandr, of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The war industry has become the main driver of the Russian economy. On the surface at least, all this spending is fuelling a strong economy. Russia’s real GDP grew by 3.6pc in 2024, according to the IMF – more than triple the growth seen in Britain last year. Real wages in Russia rose by 9.4pc in 2024, according to Rosstat, the Kremlin’s statistics agency. But only one business is booming: war. “The manufacturing industry, which includes the defence industry, was the only sector that showed growth in 2024,” says Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center who worked at Russia’s Central Bank until 2022. Russia has doubled production of armoured vehicles, while some ammunition manufacturers have quintupled their output. Manufacturing production jumped by 7.6pc in the first nine months of last year. But outside sectors directly linked to the military, growth is anaemic at best, says Prokopenko. “Consumer spending is driven by larger salaries to servicemen or even payouts to casualties,” says Agnia Grigas, of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. The war effort is sucking investment and manpower away from the non-military sector, leaving the private sector to shrivel. “Over time, Russia’s ability to maintain and develop a dynamic non-military economy is being cannibalised,” says Sir Laurie. “If they ever come to unwinding the war economy, there won’t be the civilian economy left to take up the slack.” Rather than prepare for peace, the Kremlin is doubling down on its war machine. In its autumn budget, the government raised its projections for military spending and cut nominal spending on social policy. “Military spending has started to become some kind of black hole,” says Andrei Yakovlev, associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Meanwhile, prices are soaring, bringing misery for ordinary Russians. Inflation averaged 12.1pc in the last three months of 2024. Interest rates have soared to a post-Soviet high of 21pc as Russia’s central bank scrambled to combat runaway price rises. Yet the main problem is not something that can easily be solved by monetary policy: a lack of manpower. By one estimate, 172,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war so far and a further 611,000 have been wounded. In September, Putin said he wanted to increase the size of the Russian army by 180,000 to 1.5m active servicemen. At least 650,000 emigres who fled Russia when the war began are still abroad, according to The Bell, a Russian independent economic news outlet. There are not enough workers for the rest of the economy. Russia’s unemployment rate has plunged to an all-time record low of 2.3pc. Even Kremlin-linked analysts calculate that Russia needs an additional 1.6m workers. Removing the state-engine of war spending would plunge Russia into an economic stagnation on the scale not seen since the Soviet Union in the 1980s, says Kolyandr. “They will continue to spend on military production not only to restock their arsenal but also to keep the economy from sliding into recession.” Russia does not have any other levers to support the economy. Its services sector is not globally competitive and its technology sector is backward. “There is no way that they can export,” says Kolyandr. The key strength of Russia’s economy has always been its oil and gas exports, but the world has turned away from its fossil fuel industry in the years since the war in Ukraine began. Europe has diversified, the US has emerged as a leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and even Russia’s new energy buyers, India and China, would be hesitant to become dependent on the state for their supplies. “The Russian leadership has boasted that its economy has been growing despite sanctions. That has been because of military production. So that would have to continue, because no alternatives have been figured out,” says Grigas. A Russian economy without war will simply be a Russian economy preparing for war, says Johnson. “Whether you call it war or whether you call it peace, it doesn’t matter. It’s still a militarised economy, funded by oil,” he says. “Even if there is ‘peace’, Russia will scale up their armaments. This is the political economy equilibrium keeping Putin in power.” ‘Straight out of Machiavelli’ Until 2005, Sir Bill Browder was the largest foreign investor in Russia. Then he was banned from entering the country for exposing corruption in Russian state-owned companies. In 2008, his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky uncovered a huge fraud committed by Russian government officials that involved the theft of $230m (£180m) in state taxes. Magnitsky was arrested, imprisoned without trial, tortured and eventually died in prison in 2009. Corruption goes to the heart of the Russian state, Sir Bill says. It has rotted out the country’s core and is now pushing Putin to launch attacks abroad to shore up his regime. “Putin needs war very specifically as a way to stay in power. If you look at the history of his presidency, every time his popularity has started to diminish, he started a war,” says Sir Bill. Sir Bill Browder believes Putin starts wars to stay in powerCredit: Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images Take, for example, Russia’s wars with Chechnya in the run up to Putin’s first election as president in 2000, Russia’s five-day war with Georgia in 2008 (which an EU-backed report said was started by Georgia following Russian provocation), and Russia’s annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. In 2022, when Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his popularity had been hammered by the Covid pandemic. “This is straight out of Machiavelli,” Sir Bill says. “If you’re worried about people being angry with you, you create a foreign enemy and you start a war.” Russians are far more patriotic than Britons and opposition to the West unites nationalist sentiment, says Sir Tony Brenton, who was the UK’s ambassador to Russia from 2004 to 2008. “In the current situation, everybody knows that Russia is up against the West, or believes that it is, and that is the sort of situation where Russians instinctively gather around their leader because they feel that the external threat is a direct threat to them,” he says. The war may be hammering Russia’s economy, but it has also given Putin more licence to crack down on civic society, tightening personal liberties and freedom of expression. Putin banned Facebook and Instagram in 2022 after labelling their parent company Meta “extremist”. In the same year, the Russian state revoked the media licence of one of the country’s few independent news outlets, Novaya Gazeta, forcing its closure. Various foreign reporters have been expelled. “Wartime society and wartime politics is beneficial in keeping the current regime in power,” says Grigas. War is also making some people very rich. The nephew of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov was appointed head of the seized Russian subsidiary of French yoghurt maker Danone in 2023, for example, before being sold at a heavy discount to local businessmen in the region. The Kovalchuk brothers, oligarchs with close ties to Putin, have also gained new influence, says Yakovlev. Umar Kremlev, who is now the owner of the Rolf company, the car dealer nationalised by the Russian government in 2023, similarly has new status. “In my view war can be in their interests,” says Yakovlev. “Putin needs one of two things in order to maintain the stability of the regime,” says Sir Laurie. “One is pretty much perpetual conflict with the West. The other is victory over the West.” ‘Rotten and corrupt’ Vranyo surfaces in many different ways in Russia. For a period of months while Sir Tony was ambassador, he was trailed by members of an aggressive pro-Kremlin youth group called Nashi. “They were in groups of three or four. But it was all over the country. If I flew to give a speech somewhere, they knew where I was going, they’d get themselves there, into the meeting, and then they would shout abuse,” says Sir Tony. “They were given free way by the traffic police. It was very clear they had authority from the Russian government to do what they were doing.” State structures in Russia are not known for being honest and reliable. “Nobody in Russia, certainly when I was there and I don’t think it has changed since, takes a driving test,” says Sir Tony. “What they do is they bribe the examiner. Because the system itself is so rotten and corrupt that it’s much easier to fork out small sums of money than to go through procedures that are not very dependable.” The US president has suggested that a key motive for Russia to make peace in Europe would be the prospect of combined US-Russian business interests. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, told Moscow delegates in Riyadh last month that the US and Russia could pursue “potentially historic economic partnerships” and “incredible opportunities” if Putin ends the war. US and Russian officials are reportedly in talks about joint exploration of natural resources in the Arctic. However, Trump’s discussion of business ties with Russia are a fantasy, says Sir Bill. “Nobody in their right mind is going to invest in Russia right now, that’s insane. It is not going to happen in a million years. “I can tell you, as previously the largest foreign investor in the country, nobody is going to put a penny into it. There’s no rule of law. You’ll lose your money and you’ll get killed. That is what happens in Russia. It’s a toxic business environment. It’s uninvestable.” Johnson at MIT is similarly blunt: “Any foreign investor in Russia is insane and should immediately be fired by their shareholders.” Trump’s surrender Trumpworld is blasé about all this. So far, it has granted a series of concessions to Russia in an attempt to draw Putin closer to peace. First came a prisoner exchange, during which US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said he “spent a lot of time with President Putin, talking, developing a friendship, a relationship with him”. Then came a 90-minute call between Trump and Putin, a meeting between US and Russian officials in Riyadh and then more talks last week in Istanbul. Last month at the United Nations General Assembly, the US voted alongside Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a European resolution condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as an unprovoked attack – a vote which even China, Russia’s most important ally, abstained from. John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser during his first administration, has described the US president as Putin’s puppet. “This is essentially surrendering to the Russian position,” says Bolton. Trump thinks foreign policy is based on personal relations, but Putin is not moved by personal ties. “He’s as cold-blooded as it comes in pursuing Russia’s national interests,” Bolton says. “Trump doesn’t get it. He thinks he and Putin are friends. “This former KGB agent has been manipulating him for the past couple of weeks to get what he wants and Trump doesn’t even realise.” The president may be able to secure a ceasefire but any kind of peace will only be temporary. Putin will only use the time to rearm. “If you get a ceasefire across existing frontlines, I think that will freeze into a new border,” says Bolton. Whatever happens next will have big geopolitical implications. Aside from Putin’s own ambitions, China is watching closely for an indication of how much the West will care if it were to make a move on Taiwan. “I think their calculus is if the US and Nato won’t stand up against aggression on the continent of Europe, the US is very unlikely to do anything significant in a faraway place like Taiwan,” says Bolton. “It is very dangerous.” Timothy Ash, of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, says Trump may simply not care. “For him, Ukraine is a European problem. I think Trump will agree anything to get a quick ceasefire and he won’t really care about whether it’s sustainable, that is for the Europeans to sort out.” What should European leaders do? Starmer and Macron should step up cash support for Ukraine so that it can buy US weapons, says Johnson. Sir Bill argues the best way to do this would be to seize $300bn in frozen Russian assets – an idea that has been advocated by UK David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, but which critics argue could undermine the legal system. Bolton has an even cheaper, but perhaps more controversial suggestion. The best thing that European leaders can do is convince Trump that it is in his personal interests to support Ukraine, he says. “It’s not worth talking about what’s going to happen in Ukraine. It won’t even move him really talking about what US national interests are. Everything with Trump is personal and he wants the Nobel Peace Prize,” says Bolton. “Starmer ought to offer to nominate him.” If Trump were to win the prize, there would almost certainly be a grim irony. As Russia’s war machine chunters on, few are convinced that any peace deal would last.
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