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sidis

Burnt Ends
  1. look, i am as big a fan of putt as a poster as most for following his insane antics with thick houston women of a certain age on the reg as any and i appreciate his distinguished service to this website, but i think it may be necessary to start limiting his ability to embed social media posts in this forum.
  2. commodities markets are not quite that simple. your intuition is understandable but the underlying assumption that commodities like o&g act like a simple proportional arithmetic system is not right. prices for o&g don't function like that, they also depend on elasticities, expectations, marginal adjustments...the fact that supply and demand curves are not linear. because oil demand is extremely inelastic, consumer side of things can't respond to price increases nimbly because it is so integrated and embedded into everything...transportation, agriculture, aviation, shipping, petrochemicals, and a billion other things. short term supply is also inelastic given the necessary lead time to get new production up and running (and hesitancy to expend the capital if there's not a belief of sustained high prices) for wells, pipelines, refinement, logistics infrastructure. when both supply and demand are inelastic, even small shifts in quantity can produce large movements in price. a 20% reduction in supply does not simply require a 20% reduction in consumption...instead, the market must raise the price enough to force demand downward along a steep demand curve until it matches the reduced supply. if demand is relatively insensitive to price (which it is), the price may need to rise dramatically before consumption falls enough to clear the market. if short term demand elasticity for oil is around −0.1 to −0.2 (which is generally the estimate for economists), a 20% reduction in supply would require a price increase on the order of 100% or more to reduce consumption sufficiently (the magnitude depends on the exact elasticities, but the basic point is that price responses can be many multiples of the supply shock when elasticities are low). other reasons are commodity prices are set at the margin, which really just means the price required to balance the last barrel demanded with the last barrel supplied. if the marginal barrel becomes scarce, the price of all barrels adjusts to that marginal clearing price. moreover, traders and refiners hold inventories so when supply disruptions occur, firms may draw down or build inventories depending on expectations about future shortages, which can accelerate price changes. critically, there are very few markets that are more expectation and forward looking based than o&g commodities markets. it's why so much speculation occurs. o&g prices reflect expectations about future supply and demand, not just current conditions. if market participants believe a shortage will persist or worsen, futures prices rise and pull the spot prices upward. risk premiums as well...geopolitical disruptions such as starting a fucking war in iran and putting a massive global maritime trade lane at existential risk introduces uncertainty about further supply losses. markets often incorporate a risk premium reflecting the probability of additional shocks and we are seeing that now on a minute-by-minute basis based on what dipshit says. all of this creates a non-linear price response. we have seen and studied it repeatedly. 73-74 crisis was a relatively modest supply disruption and the price went up a few multiples. signed, an economist
  3. i know who your high school friends were and i know your kid...i refuse to believe this.
  4. @mooseoutfront , nothing since novemeber of last year. you trying to tell me nothing interesting worth posting about has happened in all of alaska since november? i'm jonesing for some crazy alaskan shit. preferably, wildlife shit and not methhead local trash shit (but i'll settle for either).
  5. wtf are you two geniuses talking about? the third most replied to thread on the music board all time is a thread called "Jason Isbell, Sturgill Simpson, Christ Stapleton, and Other Good Stuff" that has been going strong since March 2018 and heaps effusive praise on chris stapleton.
  6. feelings are fairly consistent with the rest of you on this season...there are still some laughable moments and emotionally well done moments but a lot has been fairly mailed in this season. obviously, they are getting a lot of positive feedback about brian because he's in virtually every scene now. mentioned to my wife when he was at derek's house to witness the mil spat, was at the cemetary, on the walk making fun of people with headphones, in bedroom discussion singing skills, etc..., doesn't he have a newborn baby?
  7. sidis replied to BLKNSTY's topic in Cloak Room
    the department of defense cutting ties with m.i.t. and replacing them with liberty in the current strategic environment as to how international disputes are fought seems like a pretty smart decision.
  8. i really enjoyed the outro on boring a lot. also the soundscape experimentation in new suit was cool. you guys certainly have a very interesting approach experimenting with tempo and signature...particularly in sit & visit. are you doing all that in the recording process or in editing?
  9. ecb and boe had their own problems independent of ours (piigs sovereign debt crisis), brexit uncertainty, but they were still completely integrated into the global financial system and thus were significantly affected by the financial crisis lighting things off. if the ecb and boe had not mirrored the u.s. rate changes, currency consequences and subsequent trade consequences would have been significant. but to be clear, they certainly had their own independent issues...which is kind of the point, that's really a bit of a non-sequitur as to mortgage rates in the united states. those independent issues did not really affect us any more than the nominal nature of global financial integration. in terms of the u.s., the immediate crisis response from 2008-2012 was the single most important input in setting the stage for interest rates from 2009-2021. qe1, qe2, qe3 were all direct responses and the recovery was long with very slow labor market recovery, decreases in productivity growth, post-crisis deleveraging. as the tightening starts in 2016-2020 and rates are slowly but surely going up, we hit covid.
  10. I am just going to have to disagree with the notion that 2008 did not contribute that much to 2009-2021 interest rates and leave it at that. there are certainly a cumulative number of other contributing major economic and policy decisions that ultimately bring us to that date that contribute as well but the 2008 financial crisis was the most important input that set the stage for long-term cheap money and the era of 2.5% home loans.
  11. tldr: it's quite simple...result of the policy response to the financial crisis of 2008 and, later, the economic shutdown caused by covid. from 2000-2008, investment banks, commercial banks, rating agencies, large insurance underwriters, and the participants of every part of the real estate market (particularly people like the ones in this thread who make money on volume) thought it would be fun to try and completely destroy the entire untied states economy by encouraging lots of stupid, greedy people (see "americans") to buy things they could not afford under commercial terms that incentivized them to do something stupid...and then they just thought they could get away with it by rolling them up in to huge assets with lots of mortgages of varying risks that could be bought and sold and, even worse, leveraged and reinsured a number of times over so that when people who had no idea how to manage their financial affairs (but people in this thread didn't really care because they got their fees by processing them through and just sent the negative social externalities downstream to be someone else's problem) were put in a position that when the growth in equity in their house could no longer cover the adjusted interest rates on their liabilities, we, as a country, had to basically just throw everything remotely resembling a reasonable approach to money supply out. less invective translation of that incredibly long sentence: leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, a broad range of participants across the financial system became heavily involved in the expansion of mortgage lending. during this period, a large volume of mortgages were issued to borrowers who often had limited ability to repay under normal lending standards. the incentives in the system encouraged loan origination and transaction volume rather than long-term credit quality. these mortgages were then pooled into mortgage-backed securities and other structured financial products that were sold to investors. because these securities could be leveraged, insured, and re-securitized multiple times throughout the financial system, the underlying credit risk became widely distributed and, in many cases, poorly understood. as housing prices continued rising, the system appeared stable because refinancing or home equity growth could mask borrowers’ inability to sustain higher payments. when housing prices stopped rising and adjustable mortgage rates began resetting upward, large numbers of borrowers could no longer meet their obligations. this triggered widespread defaults that cascaded through the financial system due to the interconnected nature of these securities. the result was the 2008 financial crisis, which threatened the stability of major financial institutions and the broader economy. in order to keep the economy from effectively collapsing, we had to move to zero interest rate policy and basically make money free for people so that dumb, greedy people could keep buying shit. these policies included reducing short-term interest rates to near zero and purchasing large amounts of treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities through quantitative easing. by lowering borrowing costs and increasing liquidity, they thought they could support economic activity, stabilize housing markets, and restore confidence in financial markets. it pretty much worked actually...mortgage interest rates fell to historically low levels. then, we had a black swan event in which the economy was ground to a halt by a virus that was capable of killing a lot of people. thus, in order to keep everything from collapsing, pretty close to what tbone said happened happened. we returned to near-zero interest rates and expanded asset purchases to support credit markets and economic activity. this reinforced the already low interest rate environment and pushed mortgage rates even lower. the pendulum then swung back the other way because a combination of supply disruptions, fiscal stimulus, strong demand, and people wanted to move to places like austin and so houses shot through the roof (as did everything else) and so inflationary pressures became unavoidable. the prime rate was adjusted accordingly to try and cool that. despite inflation being high still, people who make their living in the real estate industry want to go back to near zero so they can achieve volume (as do people who want to sell their houses at high prices, and recent buyers who have high interest rate loans that want to refinance at a lower rate and decrease their monthly burden). but there are economic consequences to these decisions.
  12. here, i made a pic for all you high strung guys that are shitting on each other because you are overly sensitive, don't know how to read sarcasm, or trying to signal your moral superiority over a bunch of people who compulsively need to feel they are morally superior. feel free to use next time you jump someone's ass completely unnecessarily as a few of you have been wont to do lately.
  13. you're talking about someone who stated without shame that he spent over $1,500 at chickfila in one month.
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