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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. I am weighing taking 10-20% off the table, taking some of my gains and playing the waiting game.
    It is a horrible strategy, but puts have become too expensive, I have some SPY LEAP calls that have tone quite well and I'm thinking about selling 1/2 of those (which is just about my investment in them), and I've realized that I'm overweight in one stonk (ALPP) so hopefully it runs up to the NASDAQ listing to take some of that original investment off the table. 

    But I hate being in cash - so it all gets back to TINA, and to a lessor extent FOMO.....talk me out of it, or into it. What say ye?

  2. I'll be interested to see who steps up to refinance his maturing debt, and at what price (not that it will be publicly announced)
    He has a following (cultish, but still a following) and he will likely try to capitalize and monetize their loyalty.

    Now that he is once again a private citizen, he won't release his tax records (like he was ever really going to do that), but they are discoverable in litigation; some will say he hid from litigation behind Presidential immunity, others will say it is a witchhunt. It should be fascinating to watch this unfold, and expand the chasm between loyalists and realists.

    Popcorn GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

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  3. 3 hours ago, Blotto said:

    Estimates I have seen project the GDP will be down somewhere between 2-4% for the year.

    Using data from 1961-2019 there were only 8 years with negative GDP, so we're looking at either the worst year in the last 60 years or the 2nd worst year

    Year GDP Change
    2009 -2.54% -2.40%
    1982 -1.80% -4.34%
    1974 -0.54% -6.19%
    1980 -0.26% -3.42%
    1970 -0.25% -3.35%
    1975 -0.21% 0.34%
    2008 -0.14% -2.01%
    1991 -0.11% -1.99%
         

    The rich got richer (thanks stock market) but the 50% of the US population that had no money in the stock market didnt make out nearly so well. A large portion are on shakier financial footing than they were entering the year. The rich can only spend so much on cars, food, travel etc... you need all of your population doing well financially for the overall GDP to recover. I don't see that type of recovery for a couple of years at least. 

    The S&P growing 16% and the Nasdaq growing almost 50% are ridiculous in the scheme of things. But with no alternate place to put money, the ponzi scheme continues as long as the government props it up. Bubbles come to an end, and this one will as well. 

    Calculated fields in Jira – Yes possible – www.MrAddon.com ®: Jira &  Confluence Administration Support Blog & Ethereum Dev Blog –  [www.MrAddon.blog] ®

  4. I looked at the prices of 6/30 SPY options, but it is crazy expensive. 
    So I did the only rational thing I could do heading into the close, and I bought 25% more ALPP at $3.45, sure it increases my avg. cost - but I'm thinking it allows me to sell at $5 and cover all my costs+, so the remaining shares are profit and I'll slowly sell 5-10% as it goes from $5-$10 (NASDAQ listing and future acquisitions)

    @RCRanger03 - I'll have to PM you for your VENMO account once I realize gains

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  5. On 1/18/2021 at 8:59 PM, Wally Fairway said:

    Here is a better one, I knew I'd seen it but took a while to remember where

    Each state with charts for New Cases/Tests per 100k people/Percent postive 

    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

     

    This one is Covid vaccines by state (click on a state and get info by county)

    https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/

    This one is hospital capacity by state (again, click on a county and get detail by hospital)

    https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-hospital-capacity/texas/48/

     

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, NateHitch said:

    Are you guys holding your positions through the inauguration? I'm debating selling some off in case some crazy shit goes down tomorrow

    I've lost (opportunity cost) a decent amount the last year due to these fears, I am now trying to focus on longer term. Staying long, with some limited puts to hedge against a slip of 10% or more, but also buying LEAP calls to try to make up for the put costs by making more (because stocks only go up)

    I think that the Biden/Yellen team will support continuing the Fed brrrrrrt machine at least until the direct economic impact (unemployment, lockdowns, etc) of COVID-19 are behind us. Once the Fed slows the flow, that is when some weeding out happens from the stronger companies and those that are being propped up.

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, Machinator said:

    They can accomplish that by scheduling really good programs in their noncon schedule.

    Scheduling is about getting wins and getting home games; and not in that order.
    Teams want ticket sales, concessions and parking, so at most you get one good home & home series. 
    Until the playoffs expand, teams would rather have money, home games and wins. It's just how the business is played.
     

  8. 17 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

    Steel hardens steel; truth be told OSU needs someone in the B1G to challenge them and make them get better. 
    Unless making the playoffs is the ultimate goal.

    Not trying to rip on the Buckeyes, but is it really worth continuing to celebrate beating Michigan?
    (other than kicking a dog when he is down, I'll tell you from experience it's more fun to beat a good Michigan team - but that takes a long memory)

  9. ALPP CEO letter to shareholders

    https://www.accesswire.com/624786/Alpine-4-Technologies-ALPP-CEO-Issues-Annual-Letter-For-2021

    Quote

    PHOENIX, AZ / ACCESSWIRE / January 19, 2021 / Alpine 4 Technologies (OTCQB:ALPP), a leading operator and owner of small market businesses, CEO issues his Annual CEO Letter for 2021.

    Dear Shareholders,

    Last year taught us a lot about what is important, what isn't and what we hold dear. Many of us lost family members, friends and co-workers to the COVID-19 pandemic, and that pain resides in our hearts and minds. However, we also saw a new spirit of family wellbeing, a drive to be healthier and a new purpose for simply being present in the lives that are most important to us. These are the gifts that occurred in 2020 when many had their lives slowed down, and in some cases, put on hold. As I look back at 2020, I see the building blocks for a great future for those willing to embrace the positives this last year brought upon us. As we look forward to 2021 and beyond, there are amazing opportunities that lay ahead for us. Throughout history, the dawn of a decade is typically viewed as a new cohort of emerging ideas that guide future generations. I believe the 2020s will be looked at, as the decade of the great reset. How we view the world, our society and socials norms have been turned upside down. Some may see this as a setback, but many of these changes can better serve humanity. Advances in medicine, AI, EV, drones and virtual collaboration are at the genesis of new immense progress. These advances are radically changing our world and Alpine 4 is on the leading edge of some of these afore mentioned emerging technologies.

    Global Footprint

    The acquisition of Impossible Aerospace Corporation (IA) has garnered global attention, expanding our base of shareholders internationally. We estimate having over 24,000 shareholders throughout Europe and a growing number of shareholders in Asia and beyond.

    Starting in February, new international initiatives will begin to take hold with our soon to be formed holding company, A4 Aerospace, Inc., this will be the holding subsidiary for Impossible Aerospace and Vayu US, Inc. Vayu's G1 and G2 platforms are paving the way to be the undisputed world leader in its field for range and payload. Increasing opportunities in; Africa, Australia, Canada and other international markets. IA's next generation drones will also be marketed to the US Department of Defense and our allies worldwide.

    Our subsidiary, Quality Circuit Assembly, Inc. (QCA) located in Silicon Valley, also builds many of the components that go into electronic devices deployed all over the world. Ranging from clean air purification sensors and systems, to electronics within major aircraft manufactures, to electric vehicles, QCA is poised to grow exponentially over the next few years.

    Value of The DSF Business Model

    As we began to build out our model of DSF (Driver, Stabilizer, Facilitator) in 2016 with our first acquisition of Quality Circuit Assembly, Inc., I was regularly asked, "what is DSF, and why is it relevant?" DSF is a motto I coined during my years of corporate turn arounds for consulting firms and private equity groups. It described the characteristics I found that existed in successful generational businesses. While these companies had DSF products and/or services, I found that you could build a business of acquisition using the DSF model.

    So, what is DSF exactly?

    • Drivers - Are exciting new companies with large upside potential for market share and revenue generation.
    • Stabilizers - Are companies with sticky customers, consistent revenue and solid net profits.
    • Facilitators - Are companies with synergistic relevance to the other portfolio companies and whose product and/or service give a sister company a competitive advantage.

    When you combine these three categories into one purpose-driven business model, you begin to see the value of something very unique and powerful. The acquisitions of Quality Circuit Assembly and American Precision Fabricators (now QCA Central), allowed us to acquire a robust customer base and the ability to facilitate innovation (Facilitators). We purchased Morris Sheet Metal, Inc., Deluxe Sheet Metal, Inc., and Excel Fabrication, LLC. to add stability (Stabilizers). When you add these, along with the development of our in-house Enterprise Business Operating System, SPECTRUMebos, it becomes clear that the foundation for a much larger company has been laid to build upon. Then we added Driver companies, Impossible Aerospace Corporation and Vayu (US) Inc., creating the visibility and exposure of Alpine 4 to take off, as well an explosion in market cap. Imagine what Alpine 4 and our stock price will look like when we are generating $50m, $100m, or $500m in revenue and we announce a new driver company. This is the power of DSF and we are just getting started!

    The Lingering Effects of COVID-19

    I am thrilled to say we are estimating that our annualized revenue grew by at least 19% or $33.5m for 2020. We also estimated our sales would have exceeded $44m for 2020 if we didn't face the problematic business climate that proceeded the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to delayed or lost revenue, our drive towards profitability took a sharp turn when COVID-19 hit. The company's ability to drive net profit to the bottom line was exasperated by the constraints of delayed contracts, customers halting sales in the US market, and shelter in place orders. A bright spot was our ability to maintain most of our workforce. This was the result of the company's subsidiaries receiving roughly $3.4 million in PPP funds. The economical hardship of maintaining 92% of our workforce was not being able to maintain the matching revenue. This added to our costs of operating and expanded the losses we experienced in 2020.

    2021

    With the new year, many new opportunities will enhance Alpine 4's ability to grow and drive profitability. After careful discussions with our subsidiary leadership, we anticipate solid organic growth within all of our holding groups. For 2021, without any new acquisitions, we anticipate Alpine 4 to generate $42-$55 million in annualized revenue and potentially much more if COVID-19 doesn't inflict market inhibiting barriers like it did in 2020. We expect the bulk of this revenue to occur in Q2 and Q3 2021, as there is a significant backlog of work from 2020.

    Now on to the acquisition goals for 2021. In 2020 we closed on three businesses. Technically two, but I am considering the Vayu acquisition to have occurred in 2020. Based on where we are today, I believe we will acquire between 2 to 3 additional companies. These potential subsidiaries would be crucial additions in rounding out the A4 Construction Services, A4 Manufacturing and A4 Aerospace holdings. Based on the current size of Alpine 4, we are conducting due diligence on acquisitions that could add an additional $25m to $40m in annualized revenue.

    NASDAQ

    Nasdaq is home to many of the greatest companies in the US and the world; Tesla, Google, Apple, and many more come to mind. The move from the OTCQB to the NASDAQ aligns with our vision to be the leading conglomerate of innovative and synergistic companies. On the NASDAQ, we will lead the way for the next generation of great American based companies to solve some of the world's most pressing needs. We will give our shareholders the ability to participate in the American dream and the dreams of others worldwide, by owning a small piece of companies that are at the frontlines of building, fabricating and developing the needs of society. In addition, we will be joining the world's elite businesses who use their presence on the Nasdaq to enhance their abilities to provide more effective cost of capital strategies. This more effective cost of capital will greatly enhance Alpine 4's ability to succeed, driving a higher PPS and market cap, concluding in shareholder value.

    Unprecedented Access and a Drive to Succeed

    In 2014, when I became CEO of Alpine 4, I made a purpose-driven statement to our newly formed leadership team that Alpine 4 would be a company of great transparency. During those first few months, I saw something very special in our emerging team. If you have experienced my management style, you would know that I like to see who rises to the occasion when a void occurs and then empower them with the knowledge and tools to do the job at hand. It is easy for leaders to strive to solve every problem, but it creates complacency with subordinates and stagnates growth if every decision has to be made for them. (This is why we will grow to a company in excess of $1 billion… because I am not the bottleneck). Everyone on our executive leadership team (ELT) has, at one point, risen to the occasion to fill an important void when the opportunity has presented itself. That's right; voids are not problems, they are opportunities. Ian Kantrowitz, VP of IR, was the epitome of this example. Early in our journey, we started to experience explosive growth in the number of investors that were coming into Alpine 4. As I began to verbalize the void that was beginning to form at one of our ELT meetings, I realized that I wouldn't have to wait long to see who would fill the void. Ian Kantrowitz had already begun the process of communicating with shareholders and educating them on the pressing items at hand as he brought in many of the first several hundred private investors himself. During our next meeting, I decided to empower him, so I turned to Ian and said, "Ian, I think you would be great as our Director of IR." Ian said, "You know I don't have experience in this role." I knew right then and there that he was the perfect guy for the job. He was right, he didn't have the necessary experience, though he had already built relationships with many of our first investors. He had an eye for detail and a passion for excellence. A passion that has led to not only a deep underlying drive to keep shareholders informed, but also for them to experience some of our company culture. This drive is present throughout our management team, ranging from Shannon Rigney, VP of Social Media, to my right-hand man, Jeff Hail COO, to Tim Garcia, VP of Corporate Sales, to Tabatha Jones, VP of Accounting, and the list goes on. All have had similar "rise to the occasion" experiences.

    It is my goal to impart you with how much we care about the company. This Executive Leadership Team is 100% committed and has been since day one. We have fought the hard fight, and we work hard to stack our wins every day. So, when shareholders tell me they are amazed that I or someone from our team actually returned a phone call, or email, or text message, or social media message, it's not because we have to; it's because we value you, and it's our hope that, as a shareholder, you feel our passion.

    In closing, from my family to yours, from the Alpine 4 family to yours, we appreciate you as shareholders and are excited about what 2021 and beyond will bring!

    Best regards,

    Kent B. Wilson

    CEO / President / Founder

     

  10.  

    Actually I'd take Turtle Soup, Gumbo, Jumbalaya, Crawfish Etouffee, Grilled Redfish, and then some Bananas Foster
    (kind of a Brennans/Rajun Cajun mash up)

  11. Hi
    My name is Wally, and I have a problem
    I am already anxious because there is no pre-market numbers to look at tonight, and tomorrow the markets are closed. 
    I hate it when that happens, and the feelings I get about it.
    I did however ignore the urge to buy options on Friday, that usually placates my idleness and more often it loses me money.
    I'm now sure the market will open way down on Tuesday, because I did not hedge going into the long weekend.

    They say the first step in fixing a problem is admitting that you have one.

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    • Like 2
  12. There is a protest march in Lansing, at the Capitol tomorrow, same groups that were here off/on all summer. The National Guard has all ready been called up, and I'll drive by today to see if they are deployed and if fences are up.
    Crazy shit - there is some group protesting at the Capitol almost every week, but nothing like the show of guns that have been a regular thing this year.

     

  13. On 8/8/2019 at 8:12 PM, brownboy said:

    AP's brilliant decision tells me how smart it is.  Wanted to win a championship so he went to 0U instead of Texas.  We all know what happened in '05.

    It's working out as it should for a traitor to Texas.

    He doesn't care about championships anymore, I heard that he was lobbying for the Lions to resign him.....that is desperation, and it tells he is at the end of his career

  14. 14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    Obviously masks, social distancing, and not traveling unless necessary are gonna help with the flu transmission. 

    But what I am just utterly fascinated by...is how the fuck were people washing their hands before Covid-19?  I realize in 1919, tens of millions of Americans were still using community wash bins, soap was a luxury, and there certainly wasn't hand sanitizer.  But in 2019, how the fuck were y'all washing your hands?  Like George Costanza, just pretending to do it by dabbing a bit of water on your hands and then grabbing four paper towels?  I think that adults are finally washing their hands like responsible people is helping bring down the flu, Covid-19, and just a general feeling of "Welp, I can drive home now...these mitts no longer smell of South Austin's Mom."  

    I know it's no manly to wash your hands vigorously unless you're a mechanic or surgeon, but I hope we at least learn two lessons from Covid.  Wash your fucking hands like an adult and keep the fuck back from me---you don't need to stand shoulder to shoulder with me to tell me a damn story.

    Here is the difference for me, I wash a little longer but I also am using hand sanitizer 3-4+ times a day; have been since March

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