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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. 7 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

    I like both of them quite a bit, but ARS tends to get super full of himself sometimes and won’t take any other opinion offered as palatable.   

    While you are correct, you could also write the same thing about Joe Kernan. What makes it hard to watch is that they end up talking over each other, cutting the other one off and just repeating the same thing. I envision it as a Spy v. Spy cartoon

  2. 4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Imo it will be worse.  
     

    One, some places should have opened up sooner - like Chicago where hospitals have plenty of capacity but we are still stuck with nothing open - so when they say lockdown a second time nobody will listen. 

    Two, coronaviruses tend to wreak more havoc in cold weather anyway and there’s very little herd immunity, which could have helped mitigate the second wave.  

    Okay - but can you give us some insight on this most important of specific questions?


    Will the 2nd wave come late enough to allow college football?
    (asking for a friend - a Surly friend)

  3. 6 hours ago, Southland said:

    A) I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

    B)Also, otherthan the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

    A) Stonk investors don't do that analysis.

    B) If you are right, options will give you more upside to balance the 100% downside

     

  4. On 5/24/2020 at 8:50 PM, immortal13 said:

    Those things are fucking death traps. I have an Aprillia rsv4 that will do almost 200. Its been parked in storage for a year, and I can't explain what made me buy the damn thing a couple of years ago

    Could it be that you thought you were immortal?

  5. 39 minutes ago, Goo Punch said:

    Now hear me out- it would take some getting used to, that's for sure, but I think the long term benefits of doing away with Wednesdays would outweigh whatever temporary adjustment period there may be. Here's how and why:

    We divide up the 24 hours from Wednesday evenly among the other six days. Days are now 28 hours long, necessitating a switch to military time. Instead of working five days a week/eight hours a day, you now work 4 days a week/10 hours per day. The work week is M, T, Th, F, and the weekends are still Saturday and Sunday.

    Now everyone has more time to get shit done, and more time to sleep as well. With 28 hours in a day the need for 8 consecutive hours of sleep will be a thing of the past, as twice-daily 4-6 hour naps become the norm. And all because we did away with dumb old Wednesday, everyone's least favorite day of the week. So who's with me??

    🤣🤣🤣

    22 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

    No more hump day?

    maybe tuesday evening and thursday morning now be for humping

    18 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

    What about the whole sunrise and sunset thing?  It would get all kinds of fucked up.  The earth tells us how long a day is.

    oh - good reminder, maybe just change the number of minutes in each day as well to counteract this actual fact.

     

    Here is my much more superior idea, that I have, which is mine - make every month 28 days, make 13 months, plus an extra holiday for football games (2 in leap year) after December 28 to get us to January 1. The extra month would be in the summer between July and August - because who doesn't want a longer summer, and it would be called Hedonber with mandatory no working (like the Euros in the summer).
    Who is with me??

    Alt plan #2 - is to keep 12 months, each of 30 days and have it be a 5 day holiday (6 in leap years) between December 30 and January 1.

    Alt plan #3 - rename Wednesday to DerkaDay

  6. 52 minutes ago, Red Five said:

    Nahlin said this morning he’s hearing 30-40k in attendance with a lottery for tickets.

    Any mention of opening all the lots, so we can tailgate ( of course at a safe socal distance, with masks and full body condoms if necessary)? Asking for friends who like to dine, drink and drink in parking lots.

  7. 2 hours ago, bluto said:

    If tonight’s futures go up again tues morning opening is gonna be wild shit. They were up 1% last night.

    Take the longer term stonk perspective, buying 9-18 month puts either for lower prices or at a higher exercise price.

    If you believe the 2nd drop is coming then take these upticks as an opportunity to position yourself for profits from the fall.

    Or play spreads, straddles or strangles to play breakouts up or down, but at a higher cost.

    Good luck with your#stonklife

  8. I hate long weekends, no sports to watch (Tiger & buddy vs Phil & hacker was a boring watch).

    The only excitement these days are #stonks, and 3-day weekend cut short my daily fix.

    There i said it, and I feel better got having said it.

  9. 46 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

    Bought some ALT at 6.02 early this morning based solely on somebody up thread that said it had $50/share potential. I've made over $500 in the past few hours. Stonks indeed.

    Yeah I got in earlier in the week, after seeing some #stonk mentions and doing a little DD
    bought some shares at 6.12, and some 12/18 expiry $7.50 calls - looking nice today....but it has a ways to go. Hoping for continued movement  (also hoping I didn't just Fudge this one)

  10. Two come to mind
    - kid in my grade in HS, his younger sister was murdered in a botched robbery at a nearby ice cream shop where she worked.

    - Our family became close friends with a woman whose mother and step father were murdered by a prison trustee. He walked off the prison farm, killed them in their home, and then walked back to the farm and his alibi was he never left the farm, their daughter (who we met several years after all this happened) found the bodies when she came home from her after school job. 

  11. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-day-coronavirus-nearly-broke-the-financial-markets-11589982288?mod=hp_lead_pos5

     

    Quote

    An urgent call reached Ronald O’Hanley, State Street Corp.’s chief executive, as he sat in his office in downtown Boston. It was 8 a.m. on Monday, March 16.

    A senior deputy told him corporate treasurers and pension managers, panicked by the growing economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic, were pulling billions of dollars from certain money-market funds. This was forcing the funds to try to sell some of the bonds they held.

    But there were almost no buyers. Everybody was suddenly desperate for cash.

    He and the deputy, asset-management executive Cyrus Taraporevala, had spoken the night before, wrestling with how investors would respond to an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

     

    Now, they had their answer. In his 34 years in finance, Mr. O’Hanley had weathered plenty of meltdowns, but never one like this.

    “The market is fearing the worst,” Mr. O’Hanley told him.

    March 16 was the day a microscopic virus brought the financial system to the brink. Few realized how close it came to going over the edge entirely.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 13% that day, the second-biggest one-day fall in history. Stock-market volatility spiked to a record high. Investors struggled to unload even safe bonds, like Treasurys. Companies and government officials were losing access to the lending markets on which they rely to make payroll and build schools 

    Prime money-market funds that are owned by big institutional investors and buy a lot of short-term corporate debt—normally safe and boring—had outflows of $60 billion in the week ending that Wednesday, financial-data firm Refinitiv said, among the worst ever. Some $56 billion in client money fled bond funds.

    Interest rates on short-term corporate debt surged, peaking on March 25 at 2.43 percentage points above the federal-funds rate—the highest it has been since October 2008, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    .

    The financial system has endured numerous credit crunches and market crashes, and memories of the 1987 and 2008 crises set a high bar for market dysfunction. But longtime investors and those who make a living on Wall Street say mid-March of this year was far more severe in a short period. Moreover, the stresses to the financial system were broader than many had seen.

    “The 2008 financial crisis was a car crash in slow motion,” said Adam Lollos, head of short-term credit at Citigroup Inc. “This was like, ‘Boom!’ ”

    A barrage of government programs has since pulled the system back from collapse. This account of what happened on one of the worst days the financial markets have ever seen, from many of the executives, money managers and Wall Street veterans who lived it, shows why the rescue effort was so urgent.

    The Federal Reserve set the stage for the downturn on Sunday, March 15. Most investors were expecting the central bank to announce its latest response to the crisis the following Wednesday. Instead, it announced at 5 p.m. that evening that it was slashing interest rates and planning to buy $700 billion in bonds to help unclog the markets

    Rather than take comfort in the Fed’s actions, many companies, governments, bankers and investors viewed the decision as reason to prepare for the worst possible outcome from the coronavirus pandemic.

    A downdraft in bonds was now a rout.

    Mr. O’Hanley was in a good position to see the crisis unfold. His bank provides vital, if unheralded, administrative and bookkeeping services for most of the world’s biggest investors, and runs its own trillion-dollar money manager.

     

  12. This is somewhat like the Jamestown flood - the people who lived on Wixom Lake, where the Edenville Dam was located, were pissed a year or two ago because the lake had started to recede to relieve pressure on the dam and the owner was not going to do any repairs. So the people with houses (and boats/docks) on the lake raised funds to have repairs done to allow them to get their lakefront property back from being swampy and stumpy. 
    Not sure who (or if) got approval for the repairs, but I'm thinking there could be a lot of parties who get sued about this one.

  13. 18 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    This is Michigan, the very state Trump is threatening to withhold federal monies because they dare to try to facilitate democracy. Not trying to get political, just staying a fact.

    a mildly political post - read at your own risk

    Spoiler

    and a state that he barely carried in 2016 (I know, I know) - seems like he can't decide to court our votes or scourge us for our Governor 

     

  14. Reports of huge increases in unpaid credit cards and car loans, it should mean trouble for the lenders .... but we all know it just means that Stevie the Munchkin and JPow will have to fire up their brrrrrrrrrrrr stimulus machines

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-of-americans-skip-credit-card-and-car-payments-11589985381?tesla=y&mod=article_inline

    Quote

    Millions of people are behind on their credit-card and auto-loan payments, the latest sign of the coronavirus pandemic’s financial devastation.

    Lenders in April had nearly 15 million credit cards in “financial hardship” programs, such as deferral programs that let borrowers temporarily stop making payments, according to estimates by credit-reporting firm TransUnion. That accounts for about 3% of the credit-card accounts the company tracks, TransUnion said Wednesday.

    Nearly three million auto loans were in these hardship programs, accounting for about 3.5% of those tracked.

    The numbers have surged from a year ago, when 0.03% of credit cards and about 0.5% of auto loans were in financial-hardship programs.

     

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