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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. 19 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

    If I can get the timing down, this would go from fun to...well even more fun I guess.   Probably shouldn’t do this but I figured out what I left on the table today.  Still learning those lessons, expensive as they may be. Right now it’s timing.  I got out of both of this weeks pure gambles at  >30%. Pigs fat, hogs slaughtered isn’t making me feel any better.   Congrats to you guys that are slamming it. 

    Here are some guidelines that help with this type of gambling.
    It is gambling, as much as it is investing, if you are looking for a quick profit.
    Remember the bolded part, never go in trying to maximize - go in looking to make a profit.
    Nobody ever went broke taking their gains. 
    Never forget your losses; wins are exciting and memorable - but the long game is about batting average just home runs

    What helps, at least in my playbook, is to set some selling points (limit orders) that take interim gains and reduces money left on the table. 
    Limiting your losses helps in the long run, both by not riding things down, but also because you don't hold long term and tie up investable cash.
    If you are looking a flip (pump and dumps, whatever you want to call them) opportunities, set an initial time limit - like earnings report dates, or pressers.

    I welcome others to give any of their rules, guidelines, #stonk tips

     

    • Like 1
  2. 6 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

    lol DIS

    Seriously, what the hell is driving that - the vaccine hype? Just wait until it's announced that Mickey got the rona

    And good job on UAVS at the close, sure it fell some; but I'm optimistic heading into tomorrow as there wasn't absurd volume that you typically see in a pump & dump. And for that I will be crying tomorrow when it crashes (double entendre intended) back down to earth again.

  3. If the SEC calls - I don't know you, and none of you know me.

    Got it?

    I sold most of mine, took almost all of my investment out, remaining shares have a net cost around $0.25 - so hopefully still a good day tomorrow. But I couldn't let it all ride. 

    • Like 1
  4. I could just make the market go down if that would help everyone holding put/short positions.

    a) step A - take cash and buy SPY, DIS, O&G, airlines, a little bit in Cruise ships, hotels, etc
    b) step 2 - liquidate all puts
    c) ??????
    d) market goes down 15-20% - y'all profit

    post-script - I refuse to capitulate; you can have my puts when you pry them from my cold dead hands (or when Mrs Fairway says WTF have you been doing?)

  5. 3 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    Meh...we don't need to worry about that Q2 report for another 3 months. And in 3 months, when the GDP is down 30-40%, we can discount that report because we will certainly be embarking on the greatest recovery in the history of recoveries. To be honest, I'm not sure why we aren't at all-time highs right now. Sometime in the next 3-6 months we could be looking at GDP growth of 20%. That's f'n huge. Look, if some of these pussy-ass companies want to just go out of business and miss the party in 6 months, that's on them. I just don't see how you dont buy, buy, buy right now, right? 

    1 Mistake Actors Make With Shakespeare + How to Avoid It

  6. 41 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    JPow can just brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr all of that bad news right away and IAPI

    I posted it from the WSJ a day or two ago - and I'm believing this more and more each day
    I like the religious reference, it is like all the companies are going to Fed for confession and JPow is giving out billions (well really trillions) in absolution of your financial sins.
    "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without Hell. Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss"
     

     

     

     

  7. 41 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    JPow can just brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr all of that bad news right away and IAPI

    I posted it from the WSJ a day or two ago - and I'm believing this more and more each day
    I like the religious reference, it is like all the companies are going to Fed for confession and JPow is giving out billions (well really trillions) in absolution of your financial sins.
    "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without Hell. Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss"
     

     

     

     

    • Like 1
  8. Today feels like a huge change to the month long trend - S&P basically unchanged, NASDAQ down slightly, DJIA up slightly; so I'm only losing value on my options from theta, like it's almost a normal day.
    I'm sure I've just jinxed shit and it will all end up 1.5% today

  9. On 4/20/2020 at 5:16 PM, Gil Bang said:

    Not really.  They are still moving people, but doing it weird.

    My kid just took a platoon of recent boot camp grads from Ft. Jackson to Ft. Lee.   '

    Get your temp taken, get on bus, bus goes straight to new place without anybody getting off, get to new place, get temp taken as you walk-off bus. 

     

    Took my son on that trip 4 years ago. Go Ordinance!
    Wally Jr has a few stories about those bases, the best stories come out when he's drinking

    On 4/21/2020 at 9:57 AM, BearSchlong said:

    Good to know.  My son gets commissioned May 8 but isn't due for BOLC at Ft. Sam Houston until July. . .he was going to report in June but they said don't bother.

    Congrats - I wouldn't know what to do with an officer in the house LOL

    14 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

    Oh hell yeah.  Promotion list is out, and my kid's on it.  

    E-7.   It's really nice that he got it official before he becomes a Warrant Officer.

    Nice - thank him for his service, from one surly military family to another.

    • Like 1
  10. I've lost track of what's in this thread, and what isn't
    But here is an article on a group of top men working on solving the COVID problem, TOP MEN

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?mod=hp_lead_pos6

    Spoiler

    A dozen of America’s top scientists and a collection of billionaires and industry titans say they have the answer to the coronavirus pandemic, and they found a backdoor to deliver their plan to the White House.

    The eclectic group is led by a 33-year-old physician-turned-venture capitalist, Tom Cahill, who lives far from the public eye in a one-bedroom rental near Boston’s Fenway Park. He owns just one suit, but he has enough lofty connections to influence government decisions in the war against Covid-19.

    These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.

    They call themselves Scientists to Stop Covid-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, “There’s no question that I’m the least qualified.”

     

    This group, whose work hasn’t been previously reported, has acted as the go-between for pharmaceutical companies looking for a reputable link to Trump administration decision makers. They are working remotely as an ad hoc review board for the flood of research on the coronavirus, weeding out flawed studies before they reach policy makers.

    A copy of the 17-page report by the Scientists to Stop COVID-19.

    The group has compiled a confidential 17-page report that calls for a number of unorthodox methods against the virus. One big idea is treating patients with powerful drugs previously used against Ebola, with far heftier dosages than have been tried in the past.

    The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs have already implemented specific recommendations, such as slashing manufacturing regulations and requirements for specific coronavirus drugs.

     

    Nick Ayers, a longtime aide to Vice President Mike Pence.

    PHOTO: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS

    National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins told people this month that he agreed with most of the recommendations in the report, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter. The report was delivered to cabinet members and Vice President Mike Pence, head of the administration’s coronavirus task force.

    Dr. Cahill’s primary asset is a young lifetime of connections through his investment firm. They include such billionaires as Peter Thiel, Jim Palotta and Michael Milken—financiers who afforded him the legitimacy to reach officials in the middle of the crisis. Dr. Cahill and his group have frequently advised Nick Ayers, Mr. Pence’s longtime aide, and agency heads through phone calls over the past month.

    No one involved with the group stands to gain financially. They say they are motivated by the chance to add their own connections and levelheaded science to a coronavirus battle effort that has, on both state and federal levels, been strained.

    “We may fail,” said Stuart Schreiber, a Harvard University chemist and a member of the group. “But if it succeeds, it could change the world.”

    Steve Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics and the co-chairman of Bain Capital—as well as one of Dr. Cahill’s investors—helped copy edit drafts of their report, and he passed a version to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon. Mr. Solomon got it to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

     

    Vice President Mike Pence at the lectern during a news briefing with members of the coronavirus task force. Behind Mr. Pence, from left, Robert Redfield, Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, Seema Verma, Alex Azar, and Stephen Hahn.

    PHOTO: MICHAEL REYNOLDS/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

    The group’s members say they are aware that many of their ideas may not be implemented, and could be ignored altogether by the Trump administration.

    This account is based on interviews with scientists, businesspeople, government officials, as well as a review of related documents.

    Break out

    Only two years ago, Dr. Cahill was studying for his M.D. and PhD. at Duke University, conducting research on rare genetic diseases and wearing $20 Costco slacks. He assumed he would continue the work after graduation.

    Instead, he reconnected with a friend who introduced him to a job at his father’s company, the blue-chip investment firm the Raptor Group.

    Dr. Cahill got hooked on investing, particularly in life sciences. He reasoned he could make a bigger impact by identifying promising scientists and helping them troubleshoot problems—both scientific and financial—than doing research himself.

    After a stint at Raptor, he formed his own fund, Newpath Partners, with $125 million from a small group of wealthy investors, including Silicon Valley stalwart Mr. Thiel and private-equity founders like Mr. Pagliuca. They were attracted to his blunt approach, as well as his interest in tackling intractable problems.

    In early March, as the Covid-19 death toll mounted, Dr. Cahill was intrigued and a little depressed with the state of research on the virus. “Science and medicine were the furthest things removed from everything happening,” he said.

     

    President Trump at an April 13 news briefing. Behind the president, from left, Deborah Birx, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice President Mike Pence.

    PHOTO: YURI GRIPAS/CNP/ZUMA PRESS

    His investors peppered him with questions about the virus, and he organized a conference call to share some against-the-grain ideas on how to accelerate drug development and the like. He expected about 20 people.

    When Dr. Cahill tried to dial in the meeting, he was rejected because the call had reached capacity. Then his cellphone buzzed from a New York number. It was National Basketball Association Commissioner Adam Silver. He, too, wanted the meeting’s access code. Dr. Cahill later gave him a personal briefing.

    Newpath’s deep-pocketed investor base had spread word of the call, and hundreds of people were on the line, most of whom he had never met, including Mr. Milken.

    When he finally got on the call, Dr. Cahill took a deep breath and said he had been working with friends to whittle down potential Covid-19 treatments to the most promising. He said he largely dropped his investing work to focus on a hunt for a cure.

    After an hour, he hung up and found his email inbox full of ideas and offers to help, including from Mr. Milken’s team. “For the 50 years I’ve been involved in medical research I have never seen collaboration as we have today,” Mr. Milken said.

     

    Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, at a hearing in March.

    PHOTO: TOM WILLIAMS/CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY/ZUMA PRESS

    Dr. Cahill received a handful of notes from advisers to the vice president. They also had been on the call.

    The scientist-investor had gained a platform. All he needed was a plan.

    Tracing contacts

    One of Dr. Cahill’s first calls was to Mr. Schreiber, a founder of several private companies.

    Mr. Schreiber looped in a longtime friend, Edward Scolnick, former head of research and development at pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co., where he helped develop 28 new drugs and vaccines. Dr. Scolnick was blunt: A vaccine would take at least 18 months to hit the market under normal circumstances, he told Mr. Schreiber, “if you’re damn lucky.”

    Mr. Schreiber responded, “What about six months?”

    The team drew up a list of roughly two dozen companies that could benefit from their recommendations and pledged to sell any shares in them immediately. One early member said he couldn’t and was kicked out.

    SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

    What is your assessment of the group’s Covid-19 plan?Join the conversation below.

    Much of the early work involved divvying up hundreds of scientific papers on the crisis from around the world. They separated promising ideas from dubious ones. Each member blazed through as many as 20 papers a day, around 10 times the pace they would in their day jobs. They gathered to debate via videoconference, text messages—“like a bunch of teenagers,” Mr. Rosbash said—and phone calls.

    Personal hygiene went by the wayside. Michael Lin, a Stanford University neurobiologist, began disabling the camera on his phone to protect his vanity. “A couple of days, I’ve had seven or eight Zoom meetings, which will itself I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” joked David Liu, a Harvard University chemical biologist.

    Debates haven’t always been purely science. The group discussed, for instance, whether to suggest that public-health authorities rename the virus “SARS-2,” after the 2003 China animal virus. To them, the name sounded scarier and might get more people to wear face masks. They dropped it.

    The team pledged to try to block out politics—not an easy task in the noise and fury of a presidential election year.

    Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug promoted by the president, was dismissed after the group’s resident expert, Ben Cravatt of Scripps Research in La Jolla, Calif., determined it was a long shot at best. The drug received only a passing mention in the group’s final report.

     

    Hydroxychloroquine pills.

    PHOTO: JOHN LOCHER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

    The group also disparaged the idea of using antibody testing to allow people back to work if their results showed they had recovered from the virus. Mr. Cravatt, a chemical biologist, declared it “the worst idea I’ve ever heard.” He said that prior exposure may not prevent people from giving the virus to others, and that overemphasizing antibody testing might tempt some people to intentionally infect themselves to later obtain a clean bill of health.

    The group’s initial three phases of recommendations, contained in its report, center on leveraging the scale of the federal government. For instance, buy medicines not yet proven effective as a way to encourage manufacturers to ramp up production without worrying about losing money if the drugs fail. Another is to slash the time required for a clinical review of new drugs to a week from nine months or a year.

    The group next needed to get their recommendations to the right people in the Trump administration. For that, Dr. Cahill tapped another well-placed billionaire.

    An introduction

    Brian Sheth, co-founder of private-equity firm Vista Equity Partners, and a Democrat, had been watching the effort gather steam from his home in Austin, Texas. He was an early investor in Dr. Cahill’s fund and had been on the first call. His expertise was technology, though, not immunology.

    He had become friendly with Thomas Hicks Jr., the Dallas businessman and co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Mr. Sheth introduced Mr. Hicks to Dr. Cahill’s group.

     

    Brian Sheth, co-founder and president of Vista Equity Partners, last year in Beverly Hills, Calif.

    PHOTO: PATRICK T. FALLON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

    The connection cinched ties between a group of mostly liberal scientists from left-leaning institutions with a Republican stalwart who hunts birds with Donald Trump Jr.

    In his first chat with the group, Mr. Hicks said, “I’m not a scientist. Make it clear enough for me, and then tell me where the red tape is.”

    A major concern of the scientists was the FDA. The scientists had in their research identified monoclonal antibody drugs that latch onto virus cells as the most promising treatment. But to make the medicine in sufficient quantities, one drugmaker, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., would have to shift some of its existing manufacturing to Ireland. FDA rules required a monthslong wait for approval.

    Mr. Scolnick, who had tussled with bureaucracy during the AIDS epidemic, tried reaching the FDA. The call ended poorly after the bureaucrats told the group they already had the pandemic under control. In a group call afterward, one of the scientists said, of the FDA: “They’re the problem here.”

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    Dr. Cahill got in touch with Mr. Ayers. Once the group briefed the vice president’s aide on the bottleneck, Mr. Ayers said he knew who to call. That evening, March 27, Regeneron received a call from the FDA. They had permission, starting immediately, to shift production to Dublin.

    “That was proof positive that what we were doing was starting to work,” Mr. Rosbash said.

    The group also made inroads with the VA, the largest health care system in the U.S. The scientists pushed the division’s medical staff to allow veterans with Covid-19 to join existing studies in such areas as prostate cancer, to see if already-approved drugs might be effective against the virus. They spoke to the VA’s chief medical officer and secretary about the proposal and learned the initiative was being fast-tracked.

    Mr. Pagliuca spoke to Charles Baker, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, on the phone about the report. The governor, Mr. Pagliuca said, planned to adopt elements of the plan.

     

    Steve Pagliuca, co-chairman of Bain Capital.

    PHOTO: SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

    With much of their scientific proposals under advisement, or already in the process, the group has an eye on the post-Covid-19 world. Mr. Pagliuca pushed the scientists to add a fourth phase to the plan—reopening America.

    The ideas include development of a saliva test, and scheduling tests at the end of the workday so results are available by morning. They also have suggested a nationwide smartphone app that requires residents to confirm each day that they don’t have any of 14 symptoms of a cold or fever.

    Group members have continued their discussions with administration officials in recent days, hoping their confidential plan turns to action.

    “We need the entire nation—government, business and science—to unite to defeat this,” Mr. Pagliuca said.

    Corrections & Amplifications
    An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote, “I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” to Michael Lin. It was said by David Liu. (April 27, 2020)

    Top Men (Indiana Jones) | Reaction GIFs

  11. I've lost track of what's in this thread, and what isn't
    But here is an article on a group of top men working on solving the COVID problem, TOP MEN

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?mod=hp_lead_pos6

    Spoiler

    A dozen of America’s top scientists and a collection of billionaires and industry titans say they have the answer to the coronavirus pandemic, and they found a backdoor to deliver their plan to the White House.

    The eclectic group is led by a 33-year-old physician-turned-venture capitalist, Tom Cahill, who lives far from the public eye in a one-bedroom rental near Boston’s Fenway Park. He owns just one suit, but he has enough lofty connections to influence government decisions in the war against Covid-19.

    These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.

    They call themselves Scientists to Stop Covid-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, “There’s no question that I’m the least qualified.”

     

    This group, whose work hasn’t been previously reported, has acted as the go-between for pharmaceutical companies looking for a reputable link to Trump administration decision makers. They are working remotely as an ad hoc review board for the flood of research on the coronavirus, weeding out flawed studies before they reach policy makers.

    A copy of the 17-page report by the Scientists to Stop COVID-19.

    The group has compiled a confidential 17-page report that calls for a number of unorthodox methods against the virus. One big idea is treating patients with powerful drugs previously used against Ebola, with far heftier dosages than have been tried in the past.

    The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs have already implemented specific recommendations, such as slashing manufacturing regulations and requirements for specific coronavirus drugs.

     

    Nick Ayers, a longtime aide to Vice President Mike Pence.

    PHOTO: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS

    National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins told people this month that he agreed with most of the recommendations in the report, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter. The report was delivered to cabinet members and Vice President Mike Pence, head of the administration’s coronavirus task force.

    Dr. Cahill’s primary asset is a young lifetime of connections through his investment firm. They include such billionaires as Peter Thiel, Jim Palotta and Michael Milken—financiers who afforded him the legitimacy to reach officials in the middle of the crisis. Dr. Cahill and his group have frequently advised Nick Ayers, Mr. Pence’s longtime aide, and agency heads through phone calls over the past month.

    No one involved with the group stands to gain financially. They say they are motivated by the chance to add their own connections and levelheaded science to a coronavirus battle effort that has, on both state and federal levels, been strained.

    “We may fail,” said Stuart Schreiber, a Harvard University chemist and a member of the group. “But if it succeeds, it could change the world.”

    Steve Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics and the co-chairman of Bain Capital—as well as one of Dr. Cahill’s investors—helped copy edit drafts of their report, and he passed a version to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon. Mr. Solomon got it to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

     

    Vice President Mike Pence at the lectern during a news briefing with members of the coronavirus task force. Behind Mr. Pence, from left, Robert Redfield, Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, Seema Verma, Alex Azar, and Stephen Hahn.

    PHOTO: MICHAEL REYNOLDS/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

    The group’s members say they are aware that many of their ideas may not be implemented, and could be ignored altogether by the Trump administration.

    This account is based on interviews with scientists, businesspeople, government officials, as well as a review of related documents.

    Break out

    Only two years ago, Dr. Cahill was studying for his M.D. and PhD. at Duke University, conducting research on rare genetic diseases and wearing $20 Costco slacks. He assumed he would continue the work after graduation.

    Instead, he reconnected with a friend who introduced him to a job at his father’s company, the blue-chip investment firm the Raptor Group.

    Dr. Cahill got hooked on investing, particularly in life sciences. He reasoned he could make a bigger impact by identifying promising scientists and helping them troubleshoot problems—both scientific and financial—than doing research himself.

    After a stint at Raptor, he formed his own fund, Newpath Partners, with $125 million from a small group of wealthy investors, including Silicon Valley stalwart Mr. Thiel and private-equity founders like Mr. Pagliuca. They were attracted to his blunt approach, as well as his interest in tackling intractable problems.

    In early March, as the Covid-19 death toll mounted, Dr. Cahill was intrigued and a little depressed with the state of research on the virus. “Science and medicine were the furthest things removed from everything happening,” he said.

     

    President Trump at an April 13 news briefing. Behind the president, from left, Deborah Birx, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice President Mike Pence.

    PHOTO: YURI GRIPAS/CNP/ZUMA PRESS

    His investors peppered him with questions about the virus, and he organized a conference call to share some against-the-grain ideas on how to accelerate drug development and the like. He expected about 20 people.

    When Dr. Cahill tried to dial in the meeting, he was rejected because the call had reached capacity. Then his cellphone buzzed from a New York number. It was National Basketball Association Commissioner Adam Silver. He, too, wanted the meeting’s access code. Dr. Cahill later gave him a personal briefing.

    Newpath’s deep-pocketed investor base had spread word of the call, and hundreds of people were on the line, most of whom he had never met, including Mr. Milken.

    When he finally got on the call, Dr. Cahill took a deep breath and said he had been working with friends to whittle down potential Covid-19 treatments to the most promising. He said he largely dropped his investing work to focus on a hunt for a cure.

    After an hour, he hung up and found his email inbox full of ideas and offers to help, including from Mr. Milken’s team. “For the 50 years I’ve been involved in medical research I have never seen collaboration as we have today,” Mr. Milken said.

     

    Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, at a hearing in March.

    PHOTO: TOM WILLIAMS/CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY/ZUMA PRESS

    Dr. Cahill received a handful of notes from advisers to the vice president. They also had been on the call.

    The scientist-investor had gained a platform. All he needed was a plan.

    Tracing contacts

    One of Dr. Cahill’s first calls was to Mr. Schreiber, a founder of several private companies.

    Mr. Schreiber looped in a longtime friend, Edward Scolnick, former head of research and development at pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co., where he helped develop 28 new drugs and vaccines. Dr. Scolnick was blunt: A vaccine would take at least 18 months to hit the market under normal circumstances, he told Mr. Schreiber, “if you’re damn lucky.”

    Mr. Schreiber responded, “What about six months?”

    The team drew up a list of roughly two dozen companies that could benefit from their recommendations and pledged to sell any shares in them immediately. One early member said he couldn’t and was kicked out.

    SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

    What is your assessment of the group’s Covid-19 plan?Join the conversation below.

    Much of the early work involved divvying up hundreds of scientific papers on the crisis from around the world. They separated promising ideas from dubious ones. Each member blazed through as many as 20 papers a day, around 10 times the pace they would in their day jobs. They gathered to debate via videoconference, text messages—“like a bunch of teenagers,” Mr. Rosbash said—and phone calls.

    Personal hygiene went by the wayside. Michael Lin, a Stanford University neurobiologist, began disabling the camera on his phone to protect his vanity. “A couple of days, I’ve had seven or eight Zoom meetings, which will itself I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” joked David Liu, a Harvard University chemical biologist.

    Debates haven’t always been purely science. The group discussed, for instance, whether to suggest that public-health authorities rename the virus “SARS-2,” after the 2003 China animal virus. To them, the name sounded scarier and might get more people to wear face masks. They dropped it.

    The team pledged to try to block out politics—not an easy task in the noise and fury of a presidential election year.

    Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug promoted by the president, was dismissed after the group’s resident expert, Ben Cravatt of Scripps Research in La Jolla, Calif., determined it was a long shot at best. The drug received only a passing mention in the group’s final report.

     

    Hydroxychloroquine pills.

    PHOTO: JOHN LOCHER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

    The group also disparaged the idea of using antibody testing to allow people back to work if their results showed they had recovered from the virus. Mr. Cravatt, a chemical biologist, declared it “the worst idea I’ve ever heard.” He said that prior exposure may not prevent people from giving the virus to others, and that overemphasizing antibody testing might tempt some people to intentionally infect themselves to later obtain a clean bill of health.

    The group’s initial three phases of recommendations, contained in its report, center on leveraging the scale of the federal government. For instance, buy medicines not yet proven effective as a way to encourage manufacturers to ramp up production without worrying about losing money if the drugs fail. Another is to slash the time required for a clinical review of new drugs to a week from nine months or a year.

    The group next needed to get their recommendations to the right people in the Trump administration. For that, Dr. Cahill tapped another well-placed billionaire.

    An introduction

    Brian Sheth, co-founder of private-equity firm Vista Equity Partners, and a Democrat, had been watching the effort gather steam from his home in Austin, Texas. He was an early investor in Dr. Cahill’s fund and had been on the first call. His expertise was technology, though, not immunology.

    He had become friendly with Thomas Hicks Jr., the Dallas businessman and co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Mr. Sheth introduced Mr. Hicks to Dr. Cahill’s group.

     

    Brian Sheth, co-founder and president of Vista Equity Partners, last year in Beverly Hills, Calif.

    PHOTO: PATRICK T. FALLON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

    The connection cinched ties between a group of mostly liberal scientists from left-leaning institutions with a Republican stalwart who hunts birds with Donald Trump Jr.

    In his first chat with the group, Mr. Hicks said, “I’m not a scientist. Make it clear enough for me, and then tell me where the red tape is.”

    A major concern of the scientists was the FDA. The scientists had in their research identified monoclonal antibody drugs that latch onto virus cells as the most promising treatment. But to make the medicine in sufficient quantities, one drugmaker, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., would have to shift some of its existing manufacturing to Ireland. FDA rules required a monthslong wait for approval.

    Mr. Scolnick, who had tussled with bureaucracy during the AIDS epidemic, tried reaching the FDA. The call ended poorly after the bureaucrats told the group they already had the pandemic under control. In a group call afterward, one of the scientists said, of the FDA: “They’re the problem here.”

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    Dr. Cahill got in touch with Mr. Ayers. Once the group briefed the vice president’s aide on the bottleneck, Mr. Ayers said he knew who to call. That evening, March 27, Regeneron received a call from the FDA. They had permission, starting immediately, to shift production to Dublin.

    “That was proof positive that what we were doing was starting to work,” Mr. Rosbash said.

    The group also made inroads with the VA, the largest health care system in the U.S. The scientists pushed the division’s medical staff to allow veterans with Covid-19 to join existing studies in such areas as prostate cancer, to see if already-approved drugs might be effective against the virus. They spoke to the VA’s chief medical officer and secretary about the proposal and learned the initiative was being fast-tracked.

    Mr. Pagliuca spoke to Charles Baker, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, on the phone about the report. The governor, Mr. Pagliuca said, planned to adopt elements of the plan.

     

    Steve Pagliuca, co-chairman of Bain Capital.

    PHOTO: SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

    With much of their scientific proposals under advisement, or already in the process, the group has an eye on the post-Covid-19 world. Mr. Pagliuca pushed the scientists to add a fourth phase to the plan—reopening America.

    The ideas include development of a saliva test, and scheduling tests at the end of the workday so results are available by morning. They also have suggested a nationwide smartphone app that requires residents to confirm each day that they don’t have any of 14 symptoms of a cold or fever.

    Group members have continued their discussions with administration officials in recent days, hoping their confidential plan turns to action.

    “We need the entire nation—government, business and science—to unite to defeat this,” Mr. Pagliuca said.

    Corrections & Amplifications
    An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote, “I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” to Michael Lin. It was said by David Liu. (April 27, 2020)

    Top Men (Indiana Jones) | Reaction GIFs

    • Like 1
  12. tidbit from a WSJ article today

    Quote

    “Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell,” Howard Marks, director of investment fund Oaktree Capital Management LP, said in a letter to shareholders this month, writing that “Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss.”

     

    • Like 5
  13. 4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    For those looking for another stimulus check, it’s sounding like it won’t happen again.   They seem to be focusing on businesses for now.   Hopefully things can ease up a lot of those folks needing the money can find help/work.   

     

    4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

    There’s almost no way we won’t have a second round of individual stimulus.  The re-opening of the economy is not going to revive incomes to prior levels for quite some time.  We’ll be lucky to get to 10% unemployment by this time next year, maybe 18 mos. 

     

    4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    Congress isn’t in a rush to get another one out.   If they started now, it’ll probably take a few months, since they are still issuing checks for the first go-round.    I would imagine that the millions who still don’t have their checks will be pissed if others get their second check before they got their first.   

     

    4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

    No doubt, I’m just saying that it’ll likely happen at some point 

    Maybe we need another thread, so we don't cross streams. One for citizen stimulus payment#1 and what you are buying or why you don't have it; and stimulus #2 - when, how much & what you doing with it. And then in 6-8 weeks, #3 unicorns for everyone still alive.

  14. 19 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

    Because just like the DIS puts I hold, everything says earnings have to be shit, and I can't see how they can give guidance, it holds right around 100; whereas I see it heading to 80 of less. Those parks and cruise ships aren't opening anytime soon.

     

    18 hours ago, Blotto said:

    Funny you should say that, the only  company specific puts I hold right now are DIS (95p Sept exp). Gives me two earnings reports for the damage to show. Bought when DIS spiked to 108, so i'm up a bit, but I don't expect them to stay over 100 for much longer. An overall market correction or their May earnings call should do it. 

    Did I miss the news today that DIS set a date to open the parks, cruise line are booking trips, stores are reopening?
    No I did not, no real news from the Mouse....and yet it is up over  $5 for the day (and this is why I lose money on mid-long term puts....and I prefer these over near date expiry because you get more pain and frustration for your investment losses.
    @#$(%* stupid market.....I know, I know IAPI (i'ts already priced in)

  15. 5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

    We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

    IMO there are 2 main causes:
    - confusion about the economy direction being directly correlated to COVID rates; the market went down when COVID rates went up, inverse is true in the market (until it isn't)
    - FOMO (see history for examples), just as valid/invalid now as is has been in the past

  16. 25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    So that's an interesting way to force yourself to dollar cost average back in on a regular basis. How long is the loan?

    4 year term, but repayable at any time - the loan earns 5%, so better than any bond alternative, and other than cash no real reduce exposure in the 401k. There is risk in taking the loan, but I'm over 59 1/2, so no penalty if not repaid. 
    Do not take those loans without a full understanding of the possible consequences; and understanding that you do not control all of the variables (like employment status)

  17. 4 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

    What are everyone's positions right now?

    I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

    I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

    Good luck on those shorts - I'm just curious what the cost is to borrow penny stocks?

    I'm long SPY, LUV, VGT, and a growth fund (I'd have to look to see which one)  have open short positions (puts) on SPY, DIS, XOP, and a strangle on USO (that I'm losing both sides of right now), and in my 401k (Fidelity) I'm long a S&P 500 fund, MidCap growth fund & Fid Growth. Just $$$ cost averaging into those 401k positions, though I took a loan out of the account on 2/10/20 - to reduce market exposure and increasing my money going back into the market monthly.
    And those puts just keep leaking - but I have some that go out to March 2021, they are up and I think they regain value lost in the last month {of course I do, I'm committed to swimming upstream into the market current}

  18. 21 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


    WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
    10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

    just read the article - actually mentions lots of industries struggling - cruise lines, air carriers, farming, etc

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-problem-is-brewing-in-the-beer-industry-one-million-kegs-are-going-stale-11587733224?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

  19. 4 hours ago, Blotto said:

     TLDR - thinking about buying NKE puts heading into June earnings call....tell me why that is a dumbass idea. 

    Because just like the DIS puts I hold, everything says earnings have to be shit, and I can't see how they can give guidance, it holds right around 100; whereas I see it heading to 80 of less. Those parks and cruise ships aren't opening anytime soon.

  20. 5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Yep. 

    In the grand scheme we are only 5-6 weeks into stay at home etc.  Investors are in impatient bunch.  Raises hand.  

    We keep joking about shit bring priced in but another big pullback is coming.  It may take 5 months or longer but a really shitty 2021 is not priced in.  

    Gag-gree
    The problem bears have is they are impatient and cheap - they want to buy short term puts, and have their shorts turn green; both of those get much more expensive if you have to hold them for 6-12-18 months. But I am convinced that there will be value in SPY 200-220 puts by mid 2021, but it takes a big wallet and some brass balls to buy into this short term (1 month) bounce. 
    Once companies start reporting, and forecasts drop (or they quit giving guidance) then the investing community will see that the economic impact will go longer than the current crisis. And don't even get me going about how the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) wave will tear communities apart and bring new lows to the market.

    • Like 1
  21. 3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. It’s like how a governor can declare restaurants are open, the restaurant can call its staff back, and 3 tables are full for Saturday night.

    You are right, but the market seems to ignore those talking points. The market seems to trust infinite Fed support.

    Time will tell, I'm not trusting my own judgement to bet on another correction, based on the last month of bear pain

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