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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. 11 hours ago, hornbri said:

    Very doubtful

    agree - companies who received PPP funds will need to call people back to qualify for loan forgiveness.

    counter-point - I know that state and local governments are now doing 2-week rolling furloughs (not sure how if that will show up in unemployment figures)
    counter-point #2 - We are not sure if all our employees will come back immediately, as some earn more being unemployed (due to Fed bonus payment) and not coming back does not automatically disqualify them from benefits as they can say they are concerned about covid to stay eligible

    so I'd say 50/50 chance (more like 70/30) that total unemployment figures start to decline soon; the real question is how quickly does the number collecting unemployment decline?

  2. 45 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

    Talk among the family is that it is gearing towards a shit kicking rager on Lake Whitney. We own a lot of lake side property there, jet skis, motherfuckin boats, etc.

    Everyone here will be invited.

    IN - please make it one of the days that I'm avoiding my wife.
    thanks in advance

     

  3. So I decided to look at DECN to see what is happening today......trading is halted, doesn't look like it opened today, quick look I don't see any announcement

    Maybe a deal in the works, maybe looking at market manipulation the last few days, maybe dickbutt - I don't know shit, except I'm out

  4. I've been thinking about how bad defaults could get, and IMO it is hard to tell because some companies have received extension of terms or agreements for delayed payments. But this isn't a short-term problem. Like the comment earlier in the thread about junk bonds being junk, companies overloaded with debt show how big the problem is during a downturn.
    No idea how bad this could be for REIT's and others depending on rent payments, or oil prices, consumer spending, etc. 

    How do I go long on loan defaults - can retail customers buy credit default swaps or are is this already priced into that market?

     

  5. 6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    The degenerate gambling TDAmeritrade account.  Bullshit leveraged ETF's are the worst performers in it.  Good co's / shit co's are about a wash.  I would be a lot better off just using the same strategy as the 401k; put in $X every month into $SPY and forget about it.

    Yup

    I have cash on the sideline, and have wanted to build a bigger position in SPY for the last month but waiting for it to fall. I'm not smart enough to have realized it was running away from me.

    It also allows me to trade sitting around a covered position, which is way less risky than going naked and having to deal with in the money expiry.

    BUT I'm thinking today, or this weekend, is when it all turns in my favor. (fuul disclosure, I've thought that for at least 3 of the last 4 weekends...it is like JPow is trolling me)

  6. Lessson #1, as we've seen as recently as today, buy the hype & sell the news
    and 100% pump and dump, with over 100M shares of DECN trading so far today, only manipulators working volume like that on a $50 err $40 err  $30 million market cap company

  7. 10 minutes ago, bernorange said:

    It actually belongs in the CR.  There is more to the story than just Covid19.  There has been a growing municipal debt /pension crisis for years.  The city of Chicago and state of Illinois in particular have been borderline bankrupt for at least a year.  Federal bailouts for non-Covid19 problems?  Brrrrrr

    Not looking for a bailout, but to at least fund what is required (testing, tracing, etc) to allow states to reopen - I won't tread into the cesspool of CR, but the market will crash if those costs cause States and cities to go past the tipping point (maybe the hidden agenda is to allow the virus to solve the pension and retiree medical problems that bear a large part of the financial troubles)

    I just find it ironic that the first (second) stimulus passed, and now congress gets a conscience. I'll stop making my points, because anything more will be too political - but everyone bears a share of the blame for being where we are.

  8. 5 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

    Sell off has begun

    Well that was quick - at least I got 80% of my money back, and it is floating around my entry point. 
    I'll wait a little bit; classic pump and dump playbook action though

    looking at the volume, somebody wanted out pretty bad, so they sold 10+M shares at about 50% of the prior transaction, and it took a little while to fill that volume.

    • Like 1
  9. This could go in the COVID thread, but I'm thinking it's better in market 

    So I see good old Mitch McConnell is saying he'd rather have states and cities file for bankruptcy instead of having the Fed's bail them out. I would be shocked, but nothing that politicians do these days should really shock anyone. It is astounding that they can pass a bill to get a few bucks to the common man, loans (which become gifts) to companies for payroll (PPP), and bail out the banks and airlines and a few other favored industries; and then tell the States that they are on their own.

    The mentality of those who are going to die are going to die has now jumped from the rush to reopen business to a let the states that are going to die die. Like that doesn't cause a whole next wave of financial collapse that the mental midgets in Washington cannot even fathom.

    Typing this shit out makes me think I need to buy some precious metals, ammo and restock the pantry with flour, yeast, beans and Shiner Bock.

    • Like 2
  10. 2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    spacer.png

    Wish he was still around.   Him and Dr. Red Duke.  They would have a lot to say about all of this stuff happening with Covid.

    Granted, some of what they would be saying would include "GET THE FUCK AWAY FROM ME, I'M ELDERLY, ARE YOU TRYING TO KILL ME?" but also they would provide plenty of commentary.  

    Marvin exposed the chicken ranch and Dr. Red Duke was the first surgeon to receive JFK after he'd been shot.

    Met them both - I lived in the same neighborhood that Marvin did when I lived in Houston; and Dr. Duke was the keynote speaker at a seminar I attended years ago. He told some great stories, and stayed afterwards to just allow people to meet him.

  11. what a stupid group of people
    there are rules all around us that make society function
    from rules about driving (speed limits, school zones, driving on the righthand side of the road), food safety (slime in the ice machine - RIP Marvin), TSA, immigration, a whole bunch of things, and in times of trouble curfew, a fuck ton of things - I can't go up and cause you physical harm (hit you in the face), and I get people can't grasp it but that is really what public officials are trying to stop is doing physical harm to others through the spread of the coronavirus (intentional or not, knowingly or unknowingly having being contagious) 

    And she is a horrible parent, IMO, for putting her kids into the situation of her being arrested just to get some youtube views.

    • Like 3
  12. 38 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

    Another 4.3 million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow.  Another bullish signal to the market?

     

    7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

    Yes
     

    it's already priced in the market  - - - {drumroll please} {make that a rimshot}

    • Like 1
  13. 55 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

    surly is hitting a new level of gambling degeneracy

     

    38 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

    Certainly by "gambling degeneracy" you mean "prudent, well-researched risk taking"? 

    hello - the word you are looking for is stonk, hence the title of THIS thread
    and to touch on the point made by @52-80 - ain't got nothing else to bet on, so why not?

    • Like 1
  14. 5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    You know that makes more sense. Sold 1300 shares at .38 to cover my cost, so I'm freeballin with the remaining 700  shares tomorrow. 

    I was going to do the same, but I got sidetracked heading into the close & it looks like there was a fair amount of selling into the close.
    Looking at the activity - there are 141M shares listed as outstanding, and the average daily volume (10 days) is almost 40M a day. That tells me someone is pumping and getting out (dumping) at the close.
    I think I'll look to get out at the open tomorrow for at least my investment - 1 month low on this is .056, less than 3 weeks ago. I'd love to see it skyrocket, but if there was really something hot coming up, then I'd say the daily volume would actually be lower

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