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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. 13 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

    I got in a little too late, and out waaaaay too early, but made some coin(s).  Thanks @RCRanger03

    Thank my lucky stars everyday that I don't have to depend on this for a living.  

    Thanks @RCRanger03 - my goal at this point is to sell enough to cover my investment tomorrow morning before the presser and then hold the rest to see if it launches or if it does the fall on the news cycle.

  2. 1 hour ago, futureman said:

    ^^^ what did the deer do to him?   break his leg?

     

    1 hour ago, Hate said:

    I think maybe it cut him?

     

    1 hour ago, Jerry Callo said:

    That was my guess.  There is a point when he gets off his bike and the shadow appears to show the bottom of this left leg flopping around.

    look closely at his foot as he downshifts - it is moving in a way it should not, really it hurts just to watch it

  3. 18 hours ago, Continental Op said:

    RCRanger and Anastasis are throwing down the first Surly #stonks thread pump and dump! 

    and now we are all multi-hundredaires - I'm expecting the gains to double by tomorrow before the presser.
    buy the hype, sell the news - set your limit orders in now for getting out

    • Like 1
  4. Is there any credible prediction on the first time unemployment number for tomorrow?
    IMO it will be less, significantly, than the previous 2 weeks - because I'd think most mass layoffs happened earlier, then again I know Michy's system was overrun for several weeks and some people couldn't get their claims in when first let go.
    Starting next week some will start to get called back, much bigger numbers in early May, related to PPP loans being funded.

    Then again all of this could well be already priced into the market - but what do I know?

  5. 42 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    Taking side bets on what percent I lose on that trade by Friday. 

    I don't want to brag, but I'm up almost $30, which does not quite offset my USO strangle losses. So I'm counting on another 2-3 cents out of DECN, my#stonklife depends on it.

  6. 1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Fuck it, have been saving up...Bought 3 shares of Amazon.  I see it running for the rest of C19 BS and they're getting a lot of new customers that they'll keep.  Can blame this one on Cuban when it goes to hell in a handbasket...

    Damn bro - for that money you could have bought you could have almost bought

    1 - 6/18/2021 $3,600 call .... almost 1 option
    or
    1 -  6/18/2021 $1,500 put... almost 1 put
    you might have to turn in your #stonk card for buying long and not going with futures.....the club will have a vote tonight

    • Like 2
  7. 27 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    $2.25 seems like a pretty rich premium for an underlying currently at around $2.75. Hell by October, they could decide to dissolve the damn thing a la XIV, or dramatically alter their futures buy/roll strategy, which they already did a week or two ago . Definitely qualifies as stonky#stonk. 

    I pulled the trigger as a strangle, fat fingered the call options as 11 instead of 10.
    And I am making big money - this is how ballers roll, trying to decide how to outfit my G650

    USO-strangle

  8. I'm thinking about making a stonky#stonk move and buying USO straddle(s) - for about $2.25 I can straddle the 10/16 $3.00 strike, or a strangle for $1.60 with a $2.50 put and a $3.50 call. 
    It gives me 178 days of theta, and I'm thinking that I could get lucky and sell both side of the trade for win/win; this would obviously be a small play, because doing it big time would not be prudent and because I'm not a Surly 1% baller. 

  9. 1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

    Will you also tell us when options aren’t fun?  

    I'll throw my in my .02¢ - options are not fun when you have things going on that make it so you can't watch the market on day(s) when there are big enough market moves to make a few bucks.
    Things likework, doctors appointments, people calling you from Iraq.....don't they know not to interrupt me when I'm #stonking

     

  10. 1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    No idea why that would be considered bad news.  Is N Korea now some sort of global economic force?

    because I was wrong, and it affects the market because it wasn't already in the price
    and everyone would rather have the crazy dictator that you know than the one that you don't know, or a military coup to run a nuclear state....just my guesses

  11. 4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

    refineries are dragging their feet on shutting down production. 

    Because they have to soon run out of places to store refined products.

    Consumer miles driven have to be down 80%, my guess, and no idea about commercial miles but I'll throw out 50% and jet fuel say 90%. Won't even mention petrochemical storage and other by- products.

    Storage tank just be getting to the rim everywhere.

  12. 1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

    Next thing we know, MBS will get popped and we’ll have a Black Swan paired with multiple full-scale regional destabilization deaths happening.  Guess I’ll pour me a drink and watch the world burn. 

     

    1 hour ago, Blotto said:

    And buy puts....definately buy some more puts.

     

    Brrrrrrrrrr

     

    Goddamnit JPow.

    I actually did start buying some longer term SPY puts this afternoon, which I hadn't done in weeks. Nothing too crazy yet, basically just cost averaging down the 225 July puts that I never got rid of a couple of weeks ago(down about 80%, lulz) I think earnings will show that software/tech companies are holding up pretty well, but other sectors will be worse off. Only the tail end of Q1 will show the effects of the shutdown, but Q2 guidance will be interesting, assuming companies even bother to quantify it. I assume the most fucked will just claim that they aren't in a position to provide guidance and leave it at that.

    too late

    markets already priced it all in 

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
  13. Unconfirmed reports of Kim Jong Un being on the clock

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics/kim-jong-un-north-korea/index.html

    Quote

    The US is monitoring intelligence that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, is in grave danger after a surgery, according to a US official with direct knowledge.

    Kim recently missed the celebration of his grandfather's birthday on April 15, which raised speculation about his well-being. He had been seen four days before that at a government meeting.
    Another US official told CNN Monday that the concerns about Kim's health are credible but the severity is hard to assess.
    Daily NK, an online newspaper based in South Korea that focuses on North Korea, reports that Kim reportedly received a cardiovascular system procedure on April 12.

     

  14. 4 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

    I wasn't trying to bust your balls, but damn are you really gonna call on the surly collective?

    I too am curious what the open interest is now.  OI at close Friday was 108,593

    nah - I'm just curious, too many people smarter than me and that have experience in the industry keeps me away from playing in the commodities market.  

    But I did make a decent amount of money (for back in the day) in 1987 and 1988, when the petrochemical company I worked for bought futures contracts for oil, which was a feedstock for our plants and through other market forces the prices on our products when up considerably. For at least 7 quarters we were making bonuses that were anywhere from 35% to more than 100% of our salary - and I was young and stupid and did buy a new car with my last bonus check.

  15. 2 hours ago, Lurch said:

    So if you have the ability to take possession by end of month, you could get PAID $37 for every barrel you buy? That’s incredible

    That only if you bought that contract today; contract expires tomorrow. 
    Anxiously awaiting more fireworks tomorrow

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